I'm both, depending on the general consensus. Usually, it holds true that when the entire fanbase, or at least the overwhelming majority, feel pretty confident in something, they're completely wrong.
Take the Capital One Bowl vs. Georgia for example. 90+% of all of us expected we'd get blown out, be lucky to keep it within 3 scores, embarrassed on the national stage, etc.
I don't quite know how to accurately judge the team itself year in and year out or any given Saturday, but I do know how to judge the fanbase, and I expected to win the game against Georgia.