My QB mis-analysis

[Junior]

Eric Crouch as a Freshman:

49 - 104 48.5% completion, 5.7 yards per pass attempt. 4 TDs/4 INTs

4.8 per rushing attempt

Tommie Frazier as a Freshman

44 - 100 44% completion, 7.2 yards per attempt. 10 TDs/1 INT

4.6 per rushing attempt

It's early. I'm okay with how Armstrong handled himself as a Freshman and like his chances of improving.

Unless we are returning to the Solich offense of run the QB 25 times a game and throw 10 to 15, that's not a very heartening statistic. Beck's offense requires a lot more from the QB's arm than Osborne or Solich's 1992 and 1998 offenses did.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

If Stanton is better than Armstrong, and if Armstrong isn't winning games, I'm guessing we'll go with Stanton.

But I see no reason to doubt or root against Armstrong because you want to see Stanton, a quarterback who has won seven fewer games that Tommy.

Support Tommy Armstrong because he's earned it. Now he has to go out and earn it all over again. Everyone gets that.

Don't make him feel like he's walking into the cantina at the Mos Eisely spaceport every game.

 

[Junior]

If Stanton is better than Armstrong, and if Armstrong isn't winning games, I'm guessing we'll go with Stanton.

But I see no reason to doubt or root against Armstrong because you want to see Stanton, a quarterback who has won seven fewer games that Tommy.

Support Tommy Armstrong because he's earned it. Now he has to go out and earn it all over again. Everyone gets that.

Don't make him feel like he's walking into the cantina at the Mos Eisely spaceport every game.

Who's rooting against Armstrong?

 

[Saunders]

If Stanton is better than Armstrong, and if Armstrong isn't winning games, I'm guessing we'll go with Stanton.

But I see no reason to doubt or root against Armstrong because you want to see Stanton, a quarterback who has won seven fewer games that Tommy.

Support Tommy Armstrong because he's earned it. Now he has to go out and earn it all over again. Everyone gets that.

Don't make him feel like he's walking into the cantina at the Mos Eisely spaceport every game.

Who's rooting against Armstrong?

Boba Fett

 

[Junior]

If Stanton is better than Armstrong, and if Armstrong isn't winning games, I'm guessing we'll go with Stanton.

But I see no reason to doubt or root against Armstrong because you want to see Stanton, a quarterback who has won seven fewer games that Tommy.

Support Tommy Armstrong because he's earned it. Now he has to go out and earn it all over again. Everyone gets that.

Don't make him feel like he's walking into the cantina at the Mos Eisely spaceport every game.

Who's rooting against Armstrong?

Boba Fett

I never liked that guy.

 

[zoogs]

I wouldn't say Tommy is shifty, either (at least, not like your Jamal or Brion). What he brings to the table as a runner is strength, lowering his shoulder, running in traffic, running the option. What he brings to the passing game is arm strength, more orthodox footwork and delivery than we've maybe seen, promising feel for the pocket. It's not perfect, by any means, but it's a very promising set of skills and traits. What he brings to the intangibles side is poise, leadership, and confidence.

Some people are pretty harsh on him because it does seem apparent he's not a revelation tier talent such as Manziel or Winston or Tommie Frazier. They're probably right about that, but it doesn't take a player like that to develop into a solid as hell QB.

You'd also be right in saying, though, that plenty of QBs have this combination of great traits and don't make much of them. Some never get the opportunity, which Tommy has. Some don't get competition, which Tommy is from Stanton (we'd hope). Some just never put it all together or get the offense down, or struggle and cave into the pressure. All that remains to be seen. Still, I think we are extremely lucky to have a guy on Tommy on hand for this year. Aside from a lack of a third veteran option (which could prove killer), our QB situation looks pretty good this year.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

Eric Crouch as a Freshman:

49 - 104 48.5% completion, 5.7 yards per pass attempt. 4 TDs/4 INTs

4.8 per rushing attempt

Tommie Frazier as a Freshman

44 - 100 44% completion, 7.2 yards per attempt. 10 TDs/1 INT

4.6 per rushing attempt

It's early. I'm okay with how Armstrong handled himself as a Freshman and like his chances of improving.

Unless we are returning to the Solich offense of run the QB 25 times a game and throw 10 to 15, that's not a very heartening statistic. Beck's offense requires a lot more from the QB's arm than Osborne or Solich's 1992 and 1998 offenses did.

Yeah, and Armstrong has a better arm than Crouch or Frazier, and was a legitimate enough running threat behind a decimated offensive line that wasn't up to Osborne or Solich levels even when healthy.

Point was simply that the OP was throwing out the stat line of a freshman quarterback, and that's not always the best measure of their future promise.

I think we also forget how often both Osborne and Solich had us throwing the ball.

In 1992 we threw less than 13 times only twice, including 12 times in a loss to ISU. We threw the ball more than 20 times in six games, with a high of 26. And had 22 attempts against FSU in the Orange Bowl.

in 1998 we had 9 passing attempts in three different games, but more than 20 attempts in six other games, including two games with 28 attempts and one game with 27 attempts.

I used to think we averaged 10 - 15 passing attempts during the glory days myself. But it's not true. We passed the ball more than folks tend to remember.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

If Stanton is better than Armstrong, and if Armstrong isn't winning games, I'm guessing we'll go with Stanton.

But I see no reason to doubt or root against Armstrong because you want to see Stanton, a quarterback who has won seven fewer games that Tommy.

Support Tommy Armstrong because he's earned it. Now he has to go out and earn it all over again. Everyone gets that.

Don't make him feel like he's walking into the cantina at the Mos Eisely spaceport every game.

Who's rooting against Armstrong?

As I read the Original Poster, he'd prefer to go with either Stanton or Fyfe right now rather than wait for Armstrong's inevitable failure.

You may not call that "rooting against" but it's a long way from giving him the chance to prove himself.

I predict Armstrong will hold up even better than Princess Leia's breasts in a metal bikini top.

 

[kchusker_chris]

Eric Crouch as a Freshman:

49 - 104 48.5% completion, 5.7 yards per pass attempt. 4 TDs/4 INTs

4.8 per rushing attempt

Tommie Frazier as a Freshman

44 - 100 44% completion, 7.2 yards per attempt. 10 TDs/1 INT

4.6 per rushing attempt

It's early. I'm okay with how Armstrong handled himself as a Freshman and like his chances of improving.

Unless we are returning to the Solich offense of run the QB 25 times a game and throw 10 to 15, that's not a very heartening statistic. Beck's offense requires a lot more from the QB's arm than Osborne or Solich's 1992 and 1998 offenses did.

Yeah, and Armstrong has a better arm than Crouch or Frazier, and was a legitimate enough running threat behind a decimated offensive line that wasn't up to Osborne or Solich levels even when healthy.

Point was simply that the OP was throwing out the stat line of a freshman quarterback, and that's not always the best measure of their future promise.

I think we also forget how often both Osborne and Solich had us throwing the ball.

In 1992 we threw less than 13 times only twice, including 12 times in a loss to ISU. We threw the ball more than 20 times in six games, with a high of 26. And had 22 attempts against FSU in the Orange Bowl.

in 1998 we had 9 passing attempts in three different games, but more than 20 attempts in six other games, including two games with 28 attempts and one game with 27 attempts.

I used to think we averaged 10 - 15 passing attempts during the glory days myself. But it's not true. We passed the ball more than folks tend to remember.

I don't think anyone thought we passed the ball 10-15 times a game...and I don't remember 92' and 98' as the "glory days". In 94' we averaged 16.2 attempts per game - with Berringer in there with @ a 62% completion rate. 95' had a 19.0 attempts per game - primarily to open up the run game for Frazier. 96' had 17.1 attempts per game, and 97' offered us a low of 14.0 attempts per game.

Compare that to the last 4 years of 20.1, 22.5, 27.0, 29.1 and you can see why some people are thinking we're trending more towards the pass.

Oh, but we run more plays they will cry....

In 94-97 we averaged 69, 71.3, 70.3, 72.1 (70.7 avg) plays per game...compared to 65.4, 69.5, 74.3, 74 (70.8 avg)

So, while we've increased tempo slightly in the last couple of years (i won't go into comparing time of possession and playing from behind because that gets way too complicated) - we aren't exactly running a dozen more plays a year allowing us to pass 10 times more a game. We're running about the same number of plays, yet trending to have 31-33 passes per game this year. Long ways off from those of us that would like to see 20 high percentage passes a game with a couple downfield, lower % attempts.

Bottom line, the debate really is not about, nor should it be about the QB, it's about the system and whether it fits the QB we have, and the ones we are recruiting. That's a pretty debatable thing right now. If we have a Russel Wilson or Teddy Bridgewater - by all means...pass 35 times a game. But when you're recruiting Braxton Miller types - 20-22 a game is you're comfort zone.

 

[Scratchtown]

QB-

I wish I believed in Tommy Armstrong. But I don't.

Passing percentage: 52%
Yards per Rush: 3.7
Interceptions to Touchdowns: Even

I know he was a freshmen and I know he is a "leader" on the team. But I see virtually no reason to believe he has the skills to win 1, 2 or 3 of the games on our schedule that we don't have superior talent. That is what we have to have out of a position with youth. A game manager or whatever is what you can settle for with a Senior while the very talented underling learns the ropes. Martinez had his issues, but he put fear in a defensive coordinator with his feet and his arm. He was very high or very low, but as a linebacker, you didn't dare assume the next play was a "low" play. Armstrong seems to have none of those skills.

If I were a defensive coordinator playing Nebraska with Armstrong, I would do everything possible to force him to beat us. Cover the pitch man on the option, cover Amer on the zone read, and confuse him with the pass coverage.

Stanton. Is his potential higher? Seems like it. His running threat seems higher and the spring game shows that when he knows what to do, he delivers the ball.

Fife. Is his potential higher than Armstrong? I am so unconvinced about Armstrong, that I will say "yes". Good passer and quick running the ball. This would be difficult selection for Beck or Bo. it would signal that our recruiting of QBs is lacking when a walk-on takes the job. It also sets us up for another first time starter for another season; then Fife likely gets beat out a year or two later by Stanton.

I will be shocked to have Armstrong end the season as the starter. I would rather gamble early on Stanton or Fife and get through the first few games as warm ups. I predict Armstrong struggles at Mid-season develops a semi-mysterious injury and we make the move to Stanton. This locks us into another 4 loss season.

We are Armstrong or bust. He has to stop throwing picks that look intentional and develop into a gitimate running threat or we will waste a talented 2014 season.

p.s. I have been trying to decide who Armstrong reminds me of, and it's a less talented Steve Taylor or maybe he is just Cody Green transferring back from Tulsa. We would be blessed if he turns out to be Joey Ganz, but he's probably Mike Grant.

I'm curious how many other freshman QB's in the nation were

...forced into the starting role

...because of injury to the actual starter

...and split time with the 3rd string

And didn't perform to the standards of the fans?

I'm a little confused. You are judging a guy who went through all that in 2013, and undercutting his 2014 performances that haven't happened yet? How pessimistic is that? Do you not believe that kids work hard in the summer to improve and develop their skills?

 

[Branno]

You should take a step back & look at all of the stats. TA had 6 Ints in 2 games (NW - Purdue) & one vs a very good D Mich St. I'm trying to remember correctly, but I think 2 were WR tips, 1 was a over shot on a long ball & the rest were bad reads that caused INT's. He also showed some flashes of greatneee. He was also only a Fr & was splitting time with RK3.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWZzoJJMObM

This throw was very good. It was slightly behind Enunwa which actually helped him aviod the big hit. The pass itself was 50 yds. Even if Enunwa only catches the ball, it completely flips the field postion and gives NU a new set of downs.

He also had some very good option plays that I think you will see more of this year.

He "only" had 1 INT against MSU because he was too busy fumbling the ball at the 5 yard line.
Understand, I want Armstrong to show he can play. I was excited to see him play once TMart got hurt. He has to show a lot of growth this season to warrant putting him in the field.

But you are ready to throw in Stanton or Fife? Two guys who have never seen the field. That makes sense.

Passing

Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A A TD Int Rate

QB 12 84 143 58.7 1155 8.1 6.7 6 7 130.6

Do you think this team should have stuck with this QB after this first year?

Do you not have reading comprehension? If he doesn't show improvement, then replace him. He should be the game 1 starter because of experience. That's all he should be guaranteed.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

Eric Crouch as a Freshman:

49 - 104 48.5% completion, 5.7 yards per pass attempt. 4 TDs/4 INTs

4.8 per rushing attempt

Tommie Frazier as a Freshman

44 - 100 44% completion, 7.2 yards per attempt. 10 TDs/1 INT

4.6 per rushing attempt

It's early. I'm okay with how Armstrong handled himself as a Freshman and like his chances of improving.

Unless we are returning to the Solich offense of run the QB 25 times a game and throw 10 to 15, that's not a very heartening statistic. Beck's offense requires a lot more from the QB's arm than Osborne or Solich's 1992 and 1998 offenses did.

Yeah, and Armstrong has a better arm than Crouch or Frazier, and was a legitimate enough running threat behind a decimated offensive line that wasn't up to Osborne or Solich levels even when healthy.

Point was simply that the OP was throwing out the stat line of a freshman quarterback, and that's not always the best measure of their future promise.

I think we also forget how often both Osborne and Solich had us throwing the ball.

In 1992 we threw less than 13 times only twice, including 12 times in a loss to ISU. We threw the ball more than 20 times in six games, with a high of 26. And had 22 attempts against FSU in the Orange Bowl.

in 1998 we had 9 passing attempts in three different games, but more than 20 attempts in six other games, including two games with 28 attempts and one game with 27 attempts.

I used to think we averaged 10 - 15 passing attempts during the glory days myself. But it's not true. We passed the ball more than folks tend to remember.

I don't think anyone thought we passed the ball 10-15 times a game...

Scroll up. Junior remembers us passing the ball 10 -15 times a game. Hence my response to him.

I've also had this conversation before, so I don't think he's alone. A lot of current fans want to go back to the previous system, forgetting that Nebraska did indeed pass the ball to set up the run - often more than 20 times a game - and did so by design rather than waiting for the running game to fail. Which it sometimes did. Even in the glory days.

Our upward trend of pass attempts doesn't necessarily mean we're going away from the run. The season numbers get skewed by games where we're trailing by two or more scores in the fourth quarter and have to save the clock. That didn't happen often to the Huskers of old. Last season was a little skewed by the 10 games in which Ron Kellogg was brought in to exploit his skill set. And through everything Nebraska still ran a 2:1 rush to pass ratio. I think everyone -- most of all Beck -- would love to see the ground game take some of the ratio back this season. With Armstrong no longer alternating with Kellogg, that's a reasonable expectation.

Point remains that Tom Osborne clearly had no trouble with us throwing the ball 25 times a game if that's what it took. And sometimes that's what it takes.

You don't have to be a Jedi to see that.

 

[Junior]

Tommie Frazier as a Sophomore

77 completions 162 attempts in 11 games

That works out to 7 of 14.7 per game.

Tommie Frazier as a Senior (skipping his Junior year for obvious reasons)

92 completions 163 attempts in 11 games

That works out to 8.4 of 14.8 per game.

Finally, Crouch as a Senior

105 completions 189 attempts in 12 games

That works out to 8.75 of 15.75 per game.

So my estimation, without looking up stats, of 10-15 passes per game? Pretty right on target. I never implied that in 1995, the team NEVER passed more than 15 times a game. I talked about a per game estimate.

Now Taylor Martinez as a Junior

228 completions 368 attempts in 13 games

That works out to 17.5 of 28.3 per game. Clearly Beck tends to ask more of his QBs as passers. Both in terms of total numbers, and in terms of route types.

 

[The Dude]

If he doesn't show improvement, then replace him. He should be the game 1 starter because of experience. That's all he should be guaranteed.

Two problems with this. First, it implies we have someone better waiting in the wings to replace him - not necessarily true. Second, considering they let him decide which ball the offense is going to use this year, it's no secret what the plan is at the QB position.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

So my estimation, without looking up stats, of 10-15 passes per game? Pretty right on target. I never implied that in 1995, the team NEVER passed more than 15 times a game. I talked about a per game estimate.

Well I was talking about '92 and '98, because those were the Freshman seasons in question. But vintage Nebraska FREQUENTLY passed more than 15 times a game, which is a lot more than never.

No question that we pass more than we used to. No question that we remain a run first team with a 2:1 ratio. Armstrong already has a better completion % than Frazier or Crouch. Bump that up five points, trim a few turnovers and we're in business. That's not too much to expect in a Sophomore season free of last year's chaos and injuries.

Tommy Armstrong had every reason to be intimidated last year, but he never look flustered. I'll take that. Just like I'll take fumbling at your own one yard line and then cooly completing a 99 yard pass with your heel at the back of the end zone.

(honestly, I could live without the fumbling part)