Temp check: 7-5

[Mavric]

So just to try and distill this argument a bit--

Everyone agrees 2015 was a bad year. The argument beyond that seems to be boiled down to the following:

The team was bad because --

1) they had bad luck and transition-year growing pains that are likely to get fixed by year 2

or

2) the coaching staff is incompetent and can't be expected to do better than they did in 2015

I think most of us think and/or hope it was #1. But even if it is #2, the only way we can determine this for sure is to give Riley and assistant coaches full throated support again this year. And then if the results end up the same as 2015, we'll know it was #2 and can start acting accordingly.

I think those are the two extremes, not the only two options, particularly #2.

 

[cm husker]

If this is rebuilding, what are we rebuilding to?

2016 shapes up to be the easiest path to a CCG since the inception of the B12, save maybe some down years in the B12N of the mid-00s.

If this ends up being a < 9 win season, what the heck is Riley going to accomplish before he's up for retirement? By the time the "rebuild" is complete, we'll be buying a new house anyway.

2012 was far and away an easier path to the CCG than this season.

You know fellas, this making excuses thing works both ways.

How do you reach that conclusion? Three teams in NU's division finished ranked that year.
NU's cross division games were against teams that went 28-10, including penn st and Ohio st who went 20-4.

Only 2 conf opponents finished with a losing record and one of those was a 6-7 bowl team.

And NU lost only one of those games.

I highly doubt this year's schedule will play out that way.

 

[teachercd]

We all know why some people don't want to put a number on the upcoming season.

 

[Mavric]

If this is rebuilding, what are we rebuilding to?

2016 shapes up to be the easiest path to a CCG since the inception of the B12, save maybe some down years in the B12N of the mid-00s.

If this ends up being a < 9 win season, what the heck is Riley going to accomplish before he's up for retirement? By the time the "rebuild" is complete, we'll be buying a new house anyway.

2012 was far and away an easier path to the CCG than this season.

You know fellas, this making excuses thing works both ways.

I don't think that this season is the easiest path - I'd have to think the last two were easier - but I don't think it's accurate that 2012 was easier, let alone by any wide margin.

According to Jeff Sagarin, in 2012 we played the #20 toughest schedule in the nation. We played the #23, #13, #21, #20, #34 and #30 teams in his ratings.

Of our opponents this year, last year Sagarin had the best ones at #44, #19, #4 and #23. That will change to some degree but other than one really good team (Ohio State - though that doesn't matter a whole lot to getting to the CCG), we might only face a couple other teams in the Top 40.

 

[admo]

Some numbers concerning the Huskers.

Between 2010 -2014 (5 year span) 28 teams went 6-7 on the season.

46% improved the following season
46% declined the following season
While 2 teams duplicated the same 6-7 record (Pittsburgh & Iowa State)

Of the teams that improved the following season
1 team won 7 games (Pittsburgh)
5 teams won 8 games (Ga.Tech, Arizona State, Miami, Pittsburgh, Rutgers) *38%
1 team won 9 games (Vanderbilt)
4 teams won 10 games (Clemson, Georgia, Northwestern, Duke) *30%
1 team won 11 games (North Carolina)
1 team won 12 games (Ohio State)

Brace Yourselves:
Of the teams that declined the following season, half (50%) went 5-7, while the other half (50%) won 3 games or less.

In 2015, these teams went 6-7:

Nebraska
Arizona State
Minnesota
Kansas State
Indiana
UConn
Tulsa

So how will our Huskers Do in 2016? I think it shows teams have close to a 50/50 shot at improving. And if they do improve, the likeliest jump is going from 6 wins to 8. And leaping from 6 to 10 wins is a slightly lower chance, but possible.

I'm on the border of 8/9 wins to be honest. Oline and Dline has some concerns to address. But my biggest concerns with W's and L's comes down to QB play, and how the play calling develops with this in mind. It's not about "Can the QB do better?" but "Will the QB do better?"

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

If this is rebuilding, what are we rebuilding to?

2016 shapes up to be the easiest path to a CCG since the inception of the B12, save maybe some down years in the B12N of the mid-00s.

If this ends up being a < 9 win season, what the heck is Riley going to accomplish before he's up for retirement? By the time the "rebuild" is complete, we'll be buying a new house anyway.

2012 was far and away an easier path to the CCG than this season.

You know fellas, this making excuses thing works both ways.

How do you reach that conclusion? Three teams in NU's division finished ranked that year.
NU's cross division games were against teams that went 28-10, including penn st and Ohio st who went 20-4.

Only 2 conf opponents finished with a losing record and one of those was a 6-7 bowl team.

And NU lost only one of those games.

I highly doubt this year's schedule will play out that way.

The Big 10 had one really good team in 2012. Ohio State thrashed Nebraska, but was ineligible for the post-season because of sanctions. So the only thing between Nebraska, a Big 10 championship and a major bowl appearance was an unranked 5 loss Wisconsin team they'd edged earlier in the season.

It won't get any easier than that.

Michigan State was 3-5 in the Big 10 in 2012. Iowa was 2-6. Penn State was pretty good. We beat a Michigan team that was #20. A decent win.

This year we play Northwestern, Wisconsin, Indiana, Iowa and Ohio State on the road. That's not easier than our 2012 schedule.

I thought it was common knowledge that the Big 10 had hit a historic low around the time of expansion, with very weak out-of-conference play across the board, save for Ohio State. The conference had an upswing in 2014 and is considered better top to bottom today.

 

[GBRFAN]

NU's current roster is around 20th in the nation.

So sick of the arguments that NU has been averaging a C+ in recruiting.

If that's the case we had a phenomenal group of coaches that we sh#t canned because some folks had their feelings hurt by a mean face.

More realistically, NU has consistently been in the top of "tier 2" recruiting and will continue to perform about that well (eg, currently ranked 24th or whatever on 247).

As to your question, production means wins and losses. Recruiting championships are for Georgia fans.

NU current roster isn't the blame for last years record and C+ isn't the end of the world in recruiting - I would give consistent top ten recruiting an A and consistent top 15-25 a B (so the C+ isn't bad just not quite over the hump) - Your crazy if you think that the recruiting classes of last year and the next couple will be on par with the previous 4 or 5.

I'm all about winning and not a fan of the trophy for "P"...ing. however going off W-L ratio after just one year is way to black and white. The difference between 10-2 and 6-7 can and was the difference of about 6 plays in the course of a few hundred minutes of football.

If you are going off W-L alone your going to have to get a bigger sample size - statistics show that a sample size of 10 doesn't show much of anything.

 

[cm husker]

I have to laugh at those who buy into recruiting hype.

And 2012 was tougher than 2015 and the way 2015 is shaping up. Did the B10 have a quality bowl win in 2015?

 

[cm husker]

Anyone who thinks there's only a few plays separating 10 wins from 5 wins is smoking some amazingly good stuff.

 

[Red Dead Redemption]

Anyone who thinks there's only a few plays separating 10 wins from 5 wins is smoking some amazingly good stuff.

Wonder Joints?

When are the Pies coming over?

 

[Elf]

In all seriousness, nice research. Isn't each situation unique though? Do you think Riley and Co. had to deal with the exact same list of issues that Harbaugh dealt with at Michigan? We all wanted Harbaugh's results or better, heck I think most of us were at least hopeful we'd see that. It just didn't happen though. We've had a rougher transition that any of us would have wanted. What gives me hope for the future is how we finished the season winning 3 of our last four and we looked good doing it, mostly....heh

Each situation is definitely different. But when there are that many to compare it to, it seems kind of telling that we were clear at the bottom of the list. Especially when we had almost exactly the same schedule between those two years. Why did we have so much trouble when other teams didn't? I don't know, but at the least I think it shows that the "transition year" idea really don't hold that much water (small sample size but still). There are always challenges. Some teams are able to overcome them better than others.

And it's kind of ironic (hopefully ONLY ironic) that two of the four teams in that bottom group directly involved the same set of coaches.

Who knows for sure? I think it could only be this rough if it was caused by multiple factors. Maybe each thing by itself wasn't much but when you pile them all together it's a different story. For whatever reason(s) we started off badly and we stayed that way until after the Purdue game. It was a different team that took the field vs #7 Michigan St and finished out the season. And that gives me hope that the coaches and players will continue that trend in September.

 

[GBRFAN]

Anyone who thinks there's only a few plays separating 10 wins from 5 wins is smoking some amazingly good stuff.

Sometimes I wonder if you even watch the games. First point being we had 6 wins!!!! Hailmary would have been 7.......... should I remind you of the other 3 or 4 plays - or maybe you would like to actually go watch.

 

[Husker Psycho]

Man this has turned into the biggest stupidest pissing match in a long time.

It's nothing of the sort.

It's obviously been so long since you've seen people speak honestly that you don't know what it is when you see it.

In fact I will go even further. This particular thread is in every way a sea change... a revolution... in Nebraska football fan discussion.

I am a long time... very long time... Nebraska football fan. I remember the days of listening to the games on the radio... and watching games on tv with a house full of friends and fellow Nebraska fans. The type of discussion happening on this thread is exactly the type of discussions we had for years... decades... in our home. Honesty... everyone allowed to speak their mind... no censorship... ever.

Thank you Huskerboard.com. This honest... real fan... type of discussion has been absent for way too long. Unfortunately it's not happening anywhere else. Fortunately for us, it's happening here.

It's like we can breathe again.

Whatever you think. The whole second page was about whether SE said, inferred, or didn't say Nebraska was rebuilding/ transistioning or what ever. It has finially turned back to a good discusssion. Please don't ever question how big a fan I am.

No where in my comment did I question how big a fan you are?

In fact I never do that to anyone... ever... because I don't believe in it.

My reply to you was about your comment ... "Man this has turned into the biggest stupidest pissing match in a long time."... which I totally disagree with.

 

[Husker Psycho]

Anyone who thinks there's only a few plays separating 10 wins from 5 wins is smoking some amazingly good stuff.

Sometimes I wonder if you even watch the games. First point being we had 6 wins!!!! Hailmary would have been 7.......... should I remind you of the other 3 or 4 plays - or maybe you would like to actually go watch.

Nebraska's season record in 2015 was... 6-7 (5-7 regular season).

Nebraska's 2015 season record will be 6-7 (5-7 regular season) for eternity, because of a little thing called reality.

Anyone claiming that our record last year was anything other than 6-7 (5-7 regular season) is living in a fairy tale/make believe world.

 

[Guy Chamberlin]

I have to laugh at those who buy into recruiting hype.

And 2012 was tougher than 2015 and the way 2015 is shaping up. Did the B10 have a quality bowl win in 2015?

Bo had it hard. Riley has it easy.

Yes. We get it.