Week 9 Preview: Wisconsin

BIG ERN

BIG ERN

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Record: 5-2 (2-2) Series: UW leads 6-4

Points Per Game 24.3 l 34.1

Total Yards 382 l 447

Passing 209 l 236

Rushing 173 l 211

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Points Allowed Per Game 14.3 l 17.7

Yards Allowed 301 l 342

Passing 197 l 218

Rushing 103 l 124

Players to watch:

QB Alex Hornibrook l 65-115 877 yards 5 TD 6 INT

RB Corey Clement l 142 carries 617 yards 6 TD

WR Jazz Peavy l 24 receptions 383 yards 3 TD

DE TJ Watt l 39 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 7 sacks

Nebraska has lost 3 straight games to Wisconsin, and is 1-4 against them since joining the B10. The Badgers boast one of the top defenses in the nation -- they are top 10 in total defense, scoring d, and 3rd down defense. Their offense is as usual, controlling the clock and mixing some PA with their run game. Last year Wisconsin escaped with a victory after kicking a clutch FG with seconds left in the 4th quarter. Nebraska currently hasn't been tested like Wisconsin has, but I look for the Huskers to play tough in this match up. The Badgers leading tackler has been ruled out for the season after suffering a torn pec vs Iowa; LB Jack Cichy. Cethan Carter is still ruled out, but Westerkamp is back in the lineup. I went back and forth and my mind thinks we will lose this game, but there is something about this team I cannot quite rule out just yet. I think both defenses will hold up most of the game, but Nebraska makes a few bigger plays to escape with a victory in Madison....Drew Brown late kick to seal it.

Areas we need to clean up:

  • Penalty yards (92nd)
  • Tackles for loss (62nd)
  • Net punting (128th)
Areas we need to keep up:

  • Scoring defense (14th)
  • Sacks allowed (6th)
  • Time of possession (12th)


Prediction: Nebraska 23 Wisconsin 20

 
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Young QB with more INT's than TD's.... could be a fun day for Lockdown U. Turnovers will be key, because the Wiscy defense is sure to give us fits too.

 
two matchups i really REALLY like. our DB's vs their receivers. if we can find a way to cover Fumagalli out of the nickle, and free up linebackers for the run game, i think we can just simply man free cover their receivers. hornibrook isnt overly mobile, though he's able to move around. But if we can free our backers, we should be good. I just cant see how Wisconsin scored 20+ if we play well on defense.

I also like our receivers against their secondary now that Westerkamp is back. Westerkamp, Morgan, Reilly, Moore, Peirson-El. Spread these guys out. Force their backers out of the tackle box or force them into straight nickel and give our oline a chance to double team. And hopefully Tommy is on. if he hits some passes down the field early (10-20 yard range. not the yolo bombs), then it will quickly change the dynamic of Wisconsins defensive game plan. I jsut think if we spread it out, we'll give newby and chance to crease some big runs. Qb run game has to be big.

 
Count 'Bility said:
two matchups i really REALLY like. our DB's vs their receivers. if we can find a way to cover Fumagalli out of the nickle, and free up linebackers for the run game, i think we can just simply man free cover their receivers. hornibrook isnt overly mobile, though he's able to move around. But if we can free our backers, we should be good. I just cant see how Wisconsin scored 20+ if we play well on defense.

I also like our receivers against their secondary now that Westerkamp is back. Westerkamp, Morgan, Reilly, Moore, Peirson-El. Spread these guys out. Force their backers out of the tackle box or force them into straight nickel and give our oline a chance to double team. And hopefully Tommy is on. if he hits some passes down the field early (10-20 yard range. not the yolo bombs), then it will quickly change the dynamic of Wisconsins defensive game plan. I jsut think if we spread it out, we'll give newby and chance to crease some big runs. Qb run game has to be big.
Click to expand...
people don't want to admit it but we match up pretty dang well in this game.
 
Count 'Bility said:
two matchups i really REALLY like. our DB's vs their receivers. if we can find a way to cover Fumagalli out of the nickle, and free up linebackers for the run game, i think we can just simply man free cover their receivers. hornibrook isnt overly mobile, though he's able to move around. But if we can free our backers, we should be good. I just cant see how Wisconsin scored 20+ if we play well on defense.

I also like our receivers against their secondary now that Westerkamp is back. Westerkamp, Morgan, Reilly, Moore, Peirson-El. Spread these guys out. Force their backers out of the tackle box or force them into straight nickel and give our oline a chance to double team. And hopefully Tommy is on. if he hits some passes down the field early (10-20 yard range. not the yolo bombs), then it will quickly change the dynamic of Wisconsins defensive game plan. I jsut think if we spread it out, we'll give newby and chance to crease some big runs. Qb run game has to be big.
Click to expand...
How much is Tommie's injury bothering him? Will it be a factor. It seems like he has been throwing off of his back foot the last 2 games - thus bad throws. Missed a sure long TD throw against Purdue. Is it his injury or returning to bad habits? I hope he can spread the wealth this week to the receivers and open the door in the running game. We'll need it as Wisc LBs are fast and active.

 
Nebfanatic said:
Count 'Bility said:
two matchups i really REALLY like. our DB's vs their receivers. if we can find a way to cover Fumagalli out of the nickle, and free up linebackers for the run game, i think we can just simply man free cover their receivers. hornibrook isnt overly mobile, though he's able to move around. But if we can free our backers, we should be good. I just cant see how Wisconsin scored 20+ if we play well on defense.

I also like our receivers against their secondary now that Westerkamp is back. Westerkamp, Morgan, Reilly, Moore, Peirson-El. Spread these guys out. Force their backers out of the tackle box or force them into straight nickel and give our oline a chance to double team. And hopefully Tommy is on. if he hits some passes down the field early (10-20 yard range. not the yolo bombs), then it will quickly change the dynamic of Wisconsins defensive game plan. I jsut think if we spread it out, we'll give newby and chance to crease some big runs. Qb run game has to be big.
Click to expand...
people don't want to admit it but we match up pretty dang well in this game.
Click to expand...
I like the matchups, as well. The big thing for NU's defense will be able to control the jet sweep. Wisky's traditional run game is between the tackles and they use the jet sweep to hit big plays on the outside. If that can be minimized, I like NU keeping the score down.

Another advantage for NU could be place kicking. Brown has been pretty nails all season long, while Wisky has had to go to their 2nd string kicker, who missed 2 FG's against Iowa.

 
TGHusker said:
Count 'Bility said:
two matchups i really REALLY like. our DB's vs their receivers. if we can find a way to cover Fumagalli out of the nickle, and free up linebackers for the run game, i think we can just simply man free cover their receivers. hornibrook isnt overly mobile, though he's able to move around. But if we can free our backers, we should be good. I just cant see how Wisconsin scored 20+ if we play well on defense.

I also like our receivers against their secondary now that Westerkamp is back. Westerkamp, Morgan, Reilly, Moore, Peirson-El. Spread these guys out. Force their backers out of the tackle box or force them into straight nickel and give our oline a chance to double team. And hopefully Tommy is on. if he hits some passes down the field early (10-20 yard range. not the yolo bombs), then it will quickly change the dynamic of Wisconsins defensive game plan. I jsut think if we spread it out, we'll give newby and chance to crease some big runs. Qb run game has to be big.
Click to expand...
How much is Tommie's injury bothering him? Will it be a factor. It seems like he has been throwing off of his back foot the last 2 games - thus bad throws. Missed a sure long TD throw against Purdue. Is it his injury or returning to bad habits? I hope he can spread the wealth this week to the receivers and open the door in the running game. We'll need it as Wisc LBs are fast and active.
Click to expand...
it seems that way. But on that TD run, he sure looked fine.

I just cant help but think we've been saving him for this stretch. not running him more than we've had to. Just something that sticks out in my eyes last couple games is the overall lack of read options, RPO's and the designed qb runs. Knowing we can win those games with them. And when we lose that threat in the eyes of the defense, obviously it makes it easier to defend. i just wonder if Langs cuts him loose Saturday night like he did the Oregon game. Get back to playing 11 on 11.

 
Count 'Bility said:
two matchups i really REALLY like. our DB's vs their receivers. if we can find a way to cover Fumagalli out of the nickle, and free up linebackers for the run game, i think we can just simply man free cover their receivers. hornibrook isnt overly mobile, though he's able to move around. But if we can free our backers, we should be good. I just cant see how Wisconsin scored 20+ if we play well on defense.

I also like our receivers against their secondary now that Westerkamp is back. Westerkamp, Morgan, Reilly, Moore, Peirson-El. Spread these guys out. Force their backers out of the tackle box or force them into straight nickel and give our oline a chance to double team. And hopefully Tommy is on. if he hits some passes down the field early (10-20 yard range. not the yolo bombs), then it will quickly change the dynamic of Wisconsins defensive game plan. I jsut think if we spread it out, we'll give newby and chance to crease some big runs. Qb run game has to be big.
Click to expand...
One of the biggest factors vs any team with a good defense and clock eating offense....turnovers. Tommy has to be careful this game

 
Nebfanatic said:
Count 'Bility said:
two matchups i really REALLY like. our DB's vs their receivers. if we can find a way to cover Fumagalli out of the nickle, and free up linebackers for the run game, i think we can just simply man free cover their receivers. hornibrook isnt overly mobile, though he's able to move around. But if we can free our backers, we should be good. I just cant see how Wisconsin scored 20+ if we play well on defense.

I also like our receivers against their secondary now that Westerkamp is back. Westerkamp, Morgan, Reilly, Moore, Peirson-El. Spread these guys out. Force their backers out of the tackle box or force them into straight nickel and give our oline a chance to double team. And hopefully Tommy is on. if he hits some passes down the field early (10-20 yard range. not the yolo bombs), then it will quickly change the dynamic of Wisconsins defensive game plan. I jsut think if we spread it out, we'll give newby and chance to crease some big runs. Qb run game has to be big.
Click to expand...
people don't want to admit it but we match up pretty dang well in this game.
Click to expand...
I think we do match up well.

The issue is we have yet to show that we can really put together a full game.

Or a full half.

 
Wisconsin has played a much tougher schedule than our team and still has great defensive numbers...with pass defense featuring their worst overall rating by my count (z-score of 0.86 so still up there). Their offensive figures are another matter...with scoring offense being the worst category relative to national averages. The turnover margin category is another that gives me some hope. Outside of having managed a decent number of interceptions on defense and not fumbling the ball away on offense, their stats are all below average.

What am I spamming about? It's the z-scores, as usual (shown below):

Nebraska pass O 0.12, pass D 0.81, rush O 0.62, rush D 0.62, total O 0.38, total D 0.81, scoring O 0.68, scoring D 1.37, turnover margin 0.50, overall average 0.66, offensive average 0.45, defensive average 0.90, SOS 35.30
Wisconsin pass O -0.29, pass D 0.86, rush O -0.35, rush D 1.42, total O -0.29, total D 1.44, scoring O -0.68, scoring D 1.90, turnover margin -0.14, overall average 0.43, offensive average -0.40, defensive average 1.41, SOS 48.90

I calculated a spread just below (talking about hundredths at -7.42 to -7.5) what's posted now. I like to think my numbers are pretty conservative so that isn't a good sign. If Vegas's goes down, I still wouldn't consider taking the Badgers because of their offense and turnover margin. I wouldn't take us because of the difference in strength of schedule (SOS).

On the injury front, aren't they getting their stud LB back? Maybe he was back for the Iowa game?
 
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