Two games to go bowling

HuskerMav11

HuskerMav11

New member
At 4-4, we need to win two to become bowl eligible. And let's not sugar coat it. It's going to be tough.

 With four games left( Northwestern, Penn State, Minnesota, and Iowa), we're not favored to win two. 

Record Odds::

8 - 4: 0.2%

7 - 5: 6%

6 - 6: 28%

5 - 7: 43%

4 - 8: 23%

Odds of going at least 6 - 6: 34%

Note:The numbers may not add to 100 due to rounding, don't be alarmed, the math checks out :) . 

EDIT: Numbers are from ESPNs FPI. Some how I forgot to include this in the original post. My bad.

The numbers used were as follows for odds of winning:

NW: 40%

MN: 40%

Penn State: 3%

Iowa: 35%

 
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HuskerMav11 said:
Nah. Penn State is above his pay grade. Maybe if they were closer to the bottom of the top 25.
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Remember the time when we beat Michigan State? We had no business winning that game, seriously, refs blew a call on our WR coming back into bounds for the game winning touchdown.

 
Are there 9 conf games now? Is this the first year where that started?

I'd be pretty happy to go 6-3 in the B1G. It won't be easy but this team can do it.

 
For full disclosure, you should provide the raw numbers you used to make this math. If you gave Nebraska a 100% chance to lose to PSU and a 60% chance to lose each of the other games, then there's a 21.6% chance to go 0-4. That doesn't seem charitable. Even if it were, you're pulling numbers out of the air (that's being charitable), so maybe stay away from assertions like "there is a ___% chance of this event".

 
zoogs said:
For full disclosure, you should provide the raw numbers you used to make this math. If you gave Nebraska a 100% chance to lose to PSU and a 60% chance to lose each of the other games, then there's a 21.6% chance to go 0-4. That doesn't seem charitable. Even if it were, you're pulling numbers out of the air (that's being charitable), so maybe stay away from assertions like "there is a ___% chance of this event".
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40% chance of beating NW 

40% chance of beating MN

3% chance of  beating Penn State

35% chance of beating Iowa.

Feel free to check my math.

EDIT: Also, they're not out of air. They're from ESPN's FPI. Feel free to argue that their numbers are bulls#!t

 
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Yeah, you didn't need to do any math there to make your "predictions". You could have just said "I'm really down on the Huskers because I think they stink."

 
For reference...

78 bowl slots

39 teams currently bowl eligible

25 teams with five wins, with generally four more games to play

19 teams with four wins.

How is our APR?

 
zoogs said:
Are there 9 conf games now? Is this the first year where that started?

I'd be pretty happy to go 6-3 in the B1G. It won't be easy but this team can do it.
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Big Ten went to 9 game conference schedule last year.

6-3 with 3 most likely lopsided losses to any Big Ten team worth a darn isn’t that great. 

 
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