Trump's Tax Plan

Great data Moiraine - I know you are a numbers person - do you know how percentages of US citizens split by income level?  Would be interesting to see that as well as regionally (what states voted for Trump and the impact on their pop)

 
After seeing this visualized, I never want to hear another word about how the ACA was "crammed down people's throats."


You know if anyone tries to make that argument, they're either completely disingenuous or a completely misinformed.

Also, another interesting corollary this bill has on future legislation is that the excuse "we can't afford it" is officially off the board. Sure, the GOP enjoys their "win" by rushing a bill that blows a $1.5T or so hole in the deficit for future generations. 

Will they enjoy this tactic when it manifests itself in a gigantic deficit-funded infrastructure bill? Or an expensive single-payer universal healthcare bill? 

 
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dudeguyy said:
After seeing this visualized, I never want to hear another word about how the ACA was "crammed down people's throats."


You know if anyone tries to make that argument, they're either completely disingenuous or a completely misinformed.

Also, another interesting corollary this bill has on future legislation is that the excuse "we can't afford it" is officially off the board. Sure, the GOP enjoys their "win" by rushing a bill that blows a $1.5T or so hole in the deficit for future generations. 

Will they enjoy this tactic when it manifests itself in a gigantic deficit-funded infrastructure bill? Or an expensive single-payer universal healthcare bill? 
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They will still use that excuse, they already are. This bill wont change a damn thing. Entrenched GOP supporters will find someone else to blame when this thing fails spectacularly for them and the GOP will be leading the charge. It will forever be on their record, but the group of people who support it now will always support the GOP no matter what and will use every possible avenue to prop up the tax cuts and blame the fallout on others. The blinders for some are permanent it seems. 

 
Another data point that big tax cuts aren't the silver bullet so many in the GOP claim they are:
 


North Carolina slashed their corporate tax rate in a way very similar to what we're doing now in the "Carolina Comeback" to try to kickstart the economy after the Great Recession

In North Carolina:

  • Jobs and overall economy growing slightly faster than national average.
  • Small business owner above Eric Henry "doesn't know the people [their cuts] benefit" and claims to not benefit from them at all personally.
  • Median hourly wage growing at roughly same level as national average.
  • Average hourly wage and annual wage growing slower than national average.
  • They also reduced personal income taxes, eliminated the estate tax & increased the sales tax (regressive!)
  • The state budget is lagging behind. It's projected to begin a shortfall of $1.2B starting in 2019 (for comparison, Nebraska only had a $900M shortfall this year).
  • State school funding per-pupil, adjusted for inflation, is down. Funding for school supplies is down 20%. One superintendent noted their district had 33% less for new textbooks than a decade ago. State lawmakers predictably cut education budgets to compensate for their decreased revenue, including shorting teacher pay raises.
  • Workers are Henry's T-shirt business subjectively say they didn't even notice the tax cuts, except one who mentions "the roads aren't getting fixed."
And this paragraph stood out to me:

Eating lunch at Reverence Farms Café in nearby Graham, Henry sat with Bruce Nelson, who runs the cafe and a local farm with his daughter and son-in-law. In a different life, Nelson was chief executive of Office Depot. He said he understood why Wall Street was so excited about tax reform.

“It’s all about earnings per share,” Nelson said. Lower taxes mean higher earnings.

But Nelson said he doubted the cuts would generate significant corporate investment. Companies already need to be ruthless about lowering costs. He couldn’t imagine a company waiting for a tax cut to become more efficient. And he didn’t expect the tax cuts to translate into pay raises.

“There’s no such thing as trickle-down,” Nelson said.
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The dude was a CEO, so I assume he's fairly well-versed in the stuff.

So, what did their big tax cuts earn NC? Some marginal growth and jobs growth - they were already a business-friendly state. But workers don't see the benefits, and the lost revenue comes out of things like infrastructure and education.

Seems like a pretty raw deal for the little guy.

 
Lee Fang has been on a tear in recent days, in terms of holding the GOP's feet to the fire over this tax bill. Props.


The crazy thing about this is, when you first read that you think "Ah, the good Senator from Alaska made sure to safeguard her state's natural treasure against her rapacious party."

Then you think, but wait, she's a Republican, so what if...and you look it up, and indeed. Murkowski's "buy-in" condition for supporting this bill was making sure that ANWR oil drilling was put into the bill.  

 
zoogs said:
That seems like a totally necessary and good thing to do at a time when the economy is doing well.

We'll just have to pay for it by gutting Medicare and Social Security. Right, @SenJohnMavrickHeroOfTheResistanceAndGuyWithThatThumbsDownMomentMcCain? 
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That’s exactly what they’ll do too . The 1.3 trillion dollars in tax breaks for the wealthy is money the government/ country needs to run . Something else will have to suffer to make up for that loss. Gutting social  programs like Medicare are Social Security is the preferred method  for recouping those losses .  This has all been done before with disastrous consequences and there’s no reason to believe it won’t happen again . 

 
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Big Red 40 said:
That’s exactly what they’ll do too . The 1.3 trillion dollars in tax breaks for the wealthy is money the government/ country needs to run . Something else will have to suffer to make up for that loss. Gutting social  programs like Medicare are Social Security is the preferred method  for recouping those losses .  This has all been done before with disastrous consequences and there’s no reason to believe it won’t happen again . 
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Hope baby boomers have their money ready or they are going to the poorhouse.

 
Has anyone found a bullet point summary of the tax bill - on Vox or another site?  If so, can you post it.  I'd like to see a fair explanation - pointing out any benefits of the plan as well as the negatives.  I haven't been able to wrap my mind around it yet - other than corp tax rates may go to 20 or 22% and individual tax benefits may end around 2025 - which is a deception of it helping the middle class. 

Thanks

 
TGHusker said:
Has anyone found a bullet point summary of the tax bill - on Vox or another site?  If so, can you post it.  I'd like to see a fair explanation - pointing out any benefits of the plan as well as the negatives.  I haven't been able to wrap my mind around it yet - other than corp tax rates may go to 20 or 22% and individual tax benefits may end around 2025 - which is a deception of it helping the middle class. 

Thanks
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Here's a reasoned (I'd say somewhat conservative) take on the tax cuts, but it's an audio recording not a bullet list:


 
Thanks Red.  I'll ck it out.

Related:  The tax plan isn't helping the repubs.  It is getting the thumbs down in this poll.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/05/the-gop-isnt-getting-a-political-payoff-from-its-tax-plan.html

Just as daunting are results showing that most Americans don't buy the core arguments Republicans have offered for their plans. Moreover, debate over the issue has harmed the party's reputation.

Trump and Congressional leaders say the plan will, on average, cut taxes immediately for Americans in every income category. But the Quinnipiac poll shows that three of four Americans, including most Republicans, believe the tax plan will either raise their taxes or not affect their tax bill very much.

Trump and Congressional leaders say they designed their plan to benefit middle-class families. But 64 percent of Americans, including one-quarter of Republicans, say the wealthy will benefit most.

Trump and Congressional leaders argue that their plan will create jobs and boost economic growth. But 53 percent of Americans in the Quinnipiac poll say it won't.

Trump and Congressional leaders insist their tax-cut plan will reduce the national debt, but the top tax experts who advise Congress say it will actually add $1 trillion to the debt. In the poll, 58 percent say they would be less likely to support the plan if they knew it increased the debt.

As a result, consideration of the matter has handed Democrats a fresh advantage over Republicans. In August, Americans split evenly over which party handles tax issues better. Now, Democrats hold an eight-percentage-point edge, 47 percent to 39 percent.

That adds to advantages Democrats already hold as midterm elections approach. Most significant is Trump's historic weakness.

With just 35 percent approval in the new Quinnipiac poll, he is the least popular first-year president since polling began. By two to one – 52 percent to 25 percent – Americans say they feel embarrassed rather than proud that Trump is president.
 
TGHusker, I enjoy your insight. But I have one request, if I may. When you post a block quote like that, can you use the Quote feature so it is clear. There are some times where I don't know whose words I'm reading, the link above or your thoughts. I think it would just make conversation cleaner and easier. In this instance, I read your entire post, then clicked on the link to see it was half of the article linked. Thank you!

And I agree, this planned isn't helping the GOP, Trump, et al. It is unbelievably unpopular. They may be in for an ugly November 2018.

 
RedDenver said:
Here's a reasoned (I'd say somewhat conservative) take on the tax cuts, but it's an audio recording not a bullet list:
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Interesting - he calls the congress's effort as "Keystone Cops" type of an effort.  Poorly designed and conceived of and rushed.   Some points I got from it while listening:

1.  They state there is no need for a re-gressive tax policy now to 'stimulate' the economy when the employment rate is high, unemployment very low, and stock market at an all time high.  My concern is actually over stimulation and the growth of inflationary pressures.  Inflation will 'steal away' any small tax benefit that the middle class will get. Inflation is the 'hidden tax' that needs to be worked on IMHO.  Work on reducing deficits & the overall national debt. 

2.  They note that repatriation of money overseas won't occur as promised.   There was a 'repatriation' holiday some years ago and most of the money went back to shareholders and not to new jobs.

3.  Deficits will increase.  

4.  Making investments more attractive will occur they believe.

5. For regular citizens - there is a tax cut for most people - smallest for lower income .03% - Top earners 2.6% tax cut - mainly through 'pass through' business income adjustments.

6. Business expensing will be counter acted by increased deficits in the medium and long term.  Govt will need to borrow more money, which leaves less money for businesses and thus cause the cost of money to rise.

7. Thus we get a short term boast in growth of 1-2% but then it fades back to today's status quo.  Thus a huge amount of effort for no/little long term gain.

8. Winners:  Those with enormous estates - no estate tax. (Do you think Trump likes this???..... they say Trump's family will save up to a billion $$s) Only 4-5000 people would be affected by this estate tax removal - so think the very upper crust.  Trump taking care of his rich buddies.   Top 5% will get the most benefit on a ratio to income- up to $11k

9.  Over time "change CPI" increases will take away the tax benefit for the middle class through bracket creep. 

10. Corporate priorities are highlighted versus things like child tax credit extension

11. Home mortgage deduction is affected negatively while standard deductions go up. Eliminated many deductions - thus itemization on tax forms may fall to 3% and most will take the standard deduction.

12

 
QMany said:
TGHusker, I enjoy your insight. But I have one request, if I may. When you post a block quote like that, can you use the Quote feature so it is clear. There are some times where I don't know whose words I'm reading, the link above or your thoughts. I think it would just make conversation cleaner and easier. In this instance, I read your entire post, then clicked on the link to see it was half of the article linked. Thank you!

And I agree, this planned isn't helping the GOP, Trump, et al. It is unbelievably unpopular. They may be in for an ugly November 2018.
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Q, how do I use the quote feature on articles like that?

 
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