Trump Domestic Policy - Budgets, etc

I feel like someone has to explain water to him every time a hurricane hits and I imagine him sitting there going "No way! really? it does that!?! how much water did you say!? wow!"  Then he runs off to the press to tell them about these new mystifying properties of water.  Big wet water.

 
Harvest is starting to get cranked up in central Nebraska.  It's a great time of year.  So, let's revisit how Trump policies will affect farmers.

Our beans this year yielded 89 bushels per acre (yeah...pretty happy about that).

So, let's say you are a decent sized farmer and farm 5,000 acres with half of them being beans. (2,500 acres.)

The spring price was 10.15.

The current price is 8.28.

Using our yield and 2,500 acres, Trump policies would cost this farmer $416,075 on his/her bean crop.

Now let's look at corn.

Assume the other 2,500 acres were corn and using our yield from last year (this year looks better but it's not harvested yet) 270 bushels per acre.

Spring price was 3.96

Current price is 3.47.

On 2,500 acres at 270 bushels per acre, that's a loss of $330,750.

For....a grand total of a loss of $746,825  of income.

(I'm not figuring in basis on this because I don't remember exactly what the basis was in the spring. But, the basis has gotten bigger so, that's even more loss.)

Make America Great Again!!!!!!

PS.....he hasn't proven he can renegotiate ANYTHING yet.

 
tariffs may be part of the reason, but definitely not the whole story. I know this article is about corn, but evidently the same can be said for soybeans...89 bushel avg is unreal! congrats!

but there were record highs for corn and soybeans in 2007/2008 and again in 2012, when beans hit $17.50 and corn hit $8.05 per bushel (wow), and both have been on a steady decline since then...

 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/corn-prices-down-nearly-4-as-usda-forecasts-second-largest-crop-on-record-2018-09-12?link=MW_latest_news

"Corn prices dropped Friday, set to mark their largest one-day percentage decline in over a year, after the U.S. Department of Agriculture said U.S. corn production for the 2018/2019 crop year may climb to the second highest level on record. It forecast corn production at 14.827 billion bushels, up 241 million from last month's forecast. Record high yield estimates of over 181 bushels per acre for corn harvested in the United States raised the production and ending stock levels versus last month's estimates," said Sal Gilbertie, president and chief investment officer at Teucrium Trading LLC. "The fact remains that both global and U.S. corn usage is rising versus last year, while ending stock levels are falling." December corn CZ8, +0.72% lost 14 1/2 cents, or nearly 4%, to $3.52 1/4 a bushel in Chicago. Prices for a front-month contract haven't seen a single-session percentage drop that big since August of 2017, according to FactSet data."

 
DevoHusker said:
tariffs may be part of the reason, but definitely not the whole story. I know this article is about corn, but evidently the same can be said for soybeans...89 bushel avg is unreal! congrats!

but there were record highs for corn and soybeans in 2007/2008 and again in 2012, when beans hit $17.50 and corn hit $8.05 per bushel (wow), and both have been on a steady decline since then...

 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/corn-prices-down-nearly-4-as-usda-forecasts-second-largest-crop-on-record-2018-09-12?link=MW_latest_news

"Corn prices dropped Friday, set to mark their largest one-day percentage decline in over a year, after the U.S. Department of Agriculture said U.S. corn production for the 2018/2019 crop year may climb to the second highest level on record. It forecast corn production at 14.827 billion bushels, up 241 million from last month's forecast. Record high yield estimates of over 181 bushels per acre for corn harvested in the United States raised the production and ending stock levels versus last month's estimates," said Sal Gilbertie, president and chief investment officer at Teucrium Trading LLC. "The fact remains that both global and U.S. corn usage is rising versus last year, while ending stock levels are falling." December corn CZ8, +0.72% lost 14 1/2 cents, or nearly 4%, to $3.52 1/4 a bushel in Chicago. Prices for a front-month contract haven't seen a single-session percentage drop that big since August of 2017, according to FactSet data."
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There has been a lot happen in the markets since those high prices in 2007/2008 occurred that have dropped the prices from the highs.  Those prices were non sustainable and anyone who was honest with themselves understood that.  The last few years, I have felt the prices were fairly close to a reasonable price.

In my example above, I specifically used the spring 2018 price because Trump's announcements on the trade war started very shortly after that and there was a very clear drop because of the trade issues that we have not recovered from yet.

High yields are going to put further pressure on prices to remain low.

PS....the trade issues Trump has caused actually exacerbate the high yield problems because the market has no place now for those crops to be sold.

 
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DevoHusker said:
I agree BRB...the issues are compounding
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Just to point out how big of a factor the trade issues are in this.  Yesterday, a rumor...a RUMOR got started that Argentina was going to start buying US soybeans to crush and sell to china.  beans jumped 20 cents.......on a rumor.

Today it's back down 7.

I'm guessing that somewhere there are some traders that made a ton of money on this "rumor".

 
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schriznoeder said:
Only $1 million per job? Looks like sound economics to me  :bang
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Govt efficiencies at work.   Welfare of any kind (corporate or individual) - I think we often would be better off handing out the money then creating a program that is self perpetuating, ineffective, etc.  The idea  of just paying people a living wage makes more and more sense with information like this. I'm not advocating that (too many other issues wt it)  but good grief - the things our govt does makes me wonder if there is any common sense in DC. :dunno

 
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