Lubick to leave?

[Husker03]

Sure give him a few chances, but why are we still trying to force a square peg in a round hole at the end of the season when we already know it doesn't work? Wan'Dale was great in space and working his game laterally. Goal-to-go between the tackles was not his strength. You need someone who can push piles and drag tackles, a true RB. That's not Wan'Dale.

Wandale was our ONLY back that could find a seam in an average at best O-Line. In fact, I believe his only rushing TD on the season was a short yardage carry at the end of said season against Rutgers.  It's only a bad idea when it fails.  Hindsight creates genius' out of everybody.  I am not necessarily trying to argue that Wandale is best utilized in goal line carries, I am more trying to argue that we need an upgrade at the RB position, given what Frost actually had to work with last season, using Wandale was not folly. 

 

[PasstheDamnBallGuy]

Shovel passes to TEs are the type of red zone plays that are brought up to illustrate what an offensive genius Andy Reid is. And the Packers had a historically good red zone offense - of their 21 offensive TDs of less than 10 yards, 16 were passes. Including 6 1-yard TD passes. There are obviously differences in personnel, but once we actually execute the play call no one will be bothered by what it was.

The Hickman shovel is a good example - I think the call was fine, and it may be a TD if Jaimes was playing. It looked like Hickman was expecting to cut inside of Corcoran, but hesitated and Corcoran got pushed back quite a ways. If he doesn't, I think Hickman just keeps going outside where Stoll had his guy driven 3 yards into end zone. If we make a block it's a great call, it plays perfectly off of the slicing block Hickman almost always does with that motion. 

Packers are a good example too because it worked for them all year and then their execution was just slightly off vs Bucs and it cost them a trip to the SB. 

 

[Husker in WI]

Packers are a good example too because it worked for them all year and then their execution was just slightly off vs Bucs and it cost them a trip to the SB. 

Eh, I put that more on their defense - although that was a BS PI call. Yeah I saw the shirt pull, but the ref didn't call holding and he wasn't impeding progress anyway. Only a little bitter - also flopping should be it's own penalty, whether or not it was a hold the dive and somersault was absurdly over the top.

And I'm not saying I want to throw the ball 80% of the time inside the 10, just that maybe running the ball up the middle 3 times in a row isn't an efficient way to try and score. 

 

[J-MAGIC]

Shovel passes to TEs are the type of red zone plays that are brought up to illustrate what an offensive genius Andy Reid is. And the Packers had a historically good red zone offense - of their 21 offensive TDs of less than 10 yards, 16 were passes. Including 6 1-yard TD passes. There are obviously differences in personnel, but once we actually execute the play call no one will be bothered by what it was.

The Hickman shovel is a good example - I think the call was fine, and it may be a TD if Jaimes was playing. It looked like Hickman was expecting to cut inside of Corcoran, but hesitated and Corcoran got pushed back quite a ways. If he doesn't, I think Hickman just keeps going outside where Stoll had his guy driven 3 yards into end zone. If we make a block it's a great call, it plays perfectly off of the slicing block Hickman almost always does with that motion. 

I'm sure our coaches would prefer to be able to run inside zone every time we get inside the 5, but unless you have a decisive talent advantage, that's not really realistic, so coaches have to get creative. One of the dumber fan complaints.

 

[Wistrom Disciple]

Wandale was our ONLY back that could find a seam in an average at best O-Line. In fact, I believe his only rushing TD on the season was a short yardage carry at the end of said season against Rutgers.  It's only a bad idea when it fails.  Hindsight creates genius' out of everybody.  I am not necessarily trying to argue that Wandale is best utilized in goal line carries, I am more trying to argue that we need an upgrade at the RB position, given what Frost actually had to work with last season, using Wandale was not folly. 

As a previous poster pointed out though, Wandale routinely fell after first contact wherever he was at on the field. That is especially troublesome near the goaline where contact is inevitable. 

Unfortunately, the staff regularly tried to have Wandale be a power back in those short yardage or goal to go situations which almost always failed. I think most would agree that given how dominant Mills had been running the few games he was healthy, it was a head scratcher that we didn't give him the ball more often inside the five. Also a wonder how little the coaches thought about the other backs by only giving a combined 37 carries to Scott, Johnson & Thompkins on the year (hard to develop depth without giving more opportunities). I'd like to believe this will improve now that the coaches don't have to worry about keeping Wandale's dad & trainer happy with the touch quota.

 

[Mavric]

As a previous poster pointed out though, Wandale routinely fell after first contact wherever he was at on the field. That is especially troublesome near the goaline where contact is inevitable. 

Unfortunately, the staff regularly tried to have Wandale be a power back in those short yardage or goal to go situations which almost always failed. I think most would agree that given how dominant Mills had been running the few games he was healthy, it was a head scratcher that we didn't give him the ball more often inside the five. Also a wonder how little the coaches thought about the other backs by only giving a combined 37 carries to Scott, Johnson & Thompkins on the year (hard to develop depth without giving more opportunities). I'd like to believe this will improve now that the coaches don't have to worry about keeping Wandale's dad & trainer happy with the touch quota.

Mills almost never got past the first tackler either.

And they weren't going to use Wan'Dale as a RB until Mills got hurt.  Wan'Dale got zero carries the first two games.  Then Mills got hurt and they moved Wan'Dale to the backfield some.  

 

[Husker in WI]

As a previous poster pointed out though, Wandale routinely fell after first contact wherever he was at on the field. That is especially troublesome near the goaline where contact is inevitable. 

Unfortunately, the staff regularly tried to have Wandale be a power back in those short yardage or goal to go situations which almost always failed. I think most would agree that given how dominant Mills had been running the few games he was healthy, it was a head scratcher that we didn't give him the ball more often inside the five. Also a wonder how little the coaches thought about the other backs by only giving a combined 37 carries to Scott, Johnson & Thompkins on the year (hard to develop depth without giving more opportunities). I'd like to believe this will improve now that the coaches don't have to worry about keeping Wandale's dad & trainer happy with the touch quota.

What Mavric said, and also here are Mills' games with double digit carries last year:

NW - 19/59, 3.1

Purdue - 16/60, 3.8

Minnesota - 12/50, 4.2

Rutgers - 25/191, 7.6

Hardly dominant outside of Rutgers. 2019 was pretty similar - really good against Northern Illinois and Wisconsin (combined 28/304, 10.9), good against OSU (11/67, 6.1), mediocre to bad against everyone else (combined 104/374, 3.6).

Mills made more sense on the goal line than Wan'Dale, but he's really more of an arm-tackle breaker than a run you over guy. He had a handful of terrific games and quite a few forgettable ones, and I think had several carries inside the 5 get stuffed. 

 

[PasstheDamnBallGuy]

Eh, I put that more on their defense - although that was a BS PI call. Yeah I saw the shirt pull, but the ref didn't call holding and he wasn't impeding progress anyway. Only a little bitter - also flopping should be it's own penalty, whether or not it was a hold the dive and somersault was absurdly over the top.

And I'm not saying I want to throw the ball 80% of the time inside the 10, just that maybe running the ball up the middle 3 times in a row isn't an efficient way to try and score. 

Yeah I'm not saying its the only reason but that game goes a lot different if Adams catches that back shoulder, or Lazard actually blocks on the rpo, or Rodgers doesnt have to scramble those 2 plays where he couldn't quite get Adams in the back of the end zone. Rodgers really looked hesitant all game because of how back the online was getting dominated.  They are worlds apart but you can see the connections to the huskers there. 

 

[Wistrom Disciple]

What Mavric said, and also here are Mills' games with double digit carries last year:

NW - 19/59, 3.1

Purdue - 16/60, 3.8

Minnesota - 12/50, 4.2

Rutgers - 25/191, 7.6

Hardly dominant outside of Rutgers. 2019 was pretty similar - really good against Northern Illinois and Wisconsin (combined 28/304, 10.9), good against OSU (11/67, 6.1), mediocre to bad against everyone else (combined 104/374, 3.6).<<Decent, not bad

Mills made more sense on the goal line than Wan'Dale, but he's really more of an arm-tackle breaker than a run you over guy. He had a handful of terrific games and quite a few forgettable ones, and I think had several carries inside the 5 get stuffed. 

Thank you for the stats, they don't scream dominant but it does point out consistency. I'm not sure what sort of stats you're expecting but a RB average over 4.5 yards per carry on the season is pretty solid... especially when the back is more power than speed. 

Mills was a better short yardage back than Wandale. I went back through the six games Mills played, he had three TDs from inside the five on his six chances. Two of the three non-scoring chances were due to NW and OSU blowing up the play for a one and two yard loss. He also had a three yard gain at Purdue to take us from the 4 to the 1-yard line before Adrian scored the next play. Whereas Wandale scored one TD inside the five on his eight chances during the season. It took until the final game of the season to make it work and Wandale got a pretty big knock from a defender as he scored. 

Mills almost never got past the first tackler either.

And they weren't going to use Wan'Dale as a RB until Mills got hurt.  Wan'Dale got zero carries the first two games.  Then Mills got hurt and they moved Wan'Dale to the backfield some.  

Fair point. I would still prefer to have the bigger back (and actual RB) take the carries versus the small WR. The hesitancy to use Thompkins & Johnson all year is concerning. 

 

[Mavric]

The hesitancy to use Thompkins & Johnson all year is concerning. 

Hard to know what all the reasoning was but they were also said to have battled injuries.

 

[knapplc]

Hard to know what all the reasoning was but they were also said to have battled injuries.

Along with Manning, that's a lot of expected production sitting on the bench. 

 

[Mavric]

Along with Manning, that's a lot of expected production sitting on the bench. 

Yeah.  Hopefully it was mostly bad luck with injuries.  There were rumors floating around with both Manning and Thompkins that it was more than that but hopefully all of that is in the past.

 

[Hilltop]

What I have heard through the grape vine-  We had one running back mentioned catch Covid at a bad time- really set back his development and made it difficult for him to catch up.  Another running back mentioned had a more than mild concussion so was forced to miss significant time.  There were plans to have both contributing significantly by the end of the season but it just didn't work out.    

 

[Husker in WI]

Thank you for the stats, they don't scream dominant but it does point out consistency. I'm not sure what sort of stats you're expecting but a RB average over 4.5 yards per carry on the season is pretty solid... especially when the back is more power than speed. 

Mills was a better short yardage back than Wandale. I went back through the six games Mills played, he had three TDs from inside the five on his six chances. Two of the three non-scoring chances were due to NW and OSU blowing up the play for a one and two yard loss. He also had a three yard gain at Purdue to take us from the 4 to the 1-yard line before Adrian scored the next play. Whereas Wandale scored one TD inside the five on his eight chances during the season. It took until the final game of the season to make it work and Wandale got a pretty big knock from a defender as he scored. 

Thanks for the research on Mills inside the 5 - that is better than I expected for sure. But I would disagree about it being consistent. I like my 4.7 average to not be dependent on one game against Rutgers. He averaged 3.5 across the other 5 games he played - consistent 3.5 with potential for an explosion isn't great. Obviously everyone has good and bad games, but a drop of 1.2 per carry based on one game is a pretty big outlier. And the year before was similar, more outliers (2) because of more games played (12).

In his Nebraska career he's basically a 3.7 YPC back (15 games), with a 16% chance of being a 9.3 YPC back (3 games). For the comment about the 3.6 average in 2019 being decent instead of bad - it's a bad average for a college back. And I wasn't clear on it in the post, but I was trying to say individual games were mediocre to bad - 15/44 and 10/26 are really bad. 11/67 is  better than mediocre. So maybe not the most accurate range. The one great game against Wisconsin makes this interesting, his other 2 big games were against 83rd (RU - 2020) and 113th (NIU - 2019) defenses in YPC allowed and I'd be tempted to say he only ran on bad defenses. 

This is a lot of negativity which I don't like to do, I appreciate that Mills was a solid back and I liked watching him. But after that Wisconsin game the narrative was "he figured it out, he's a top Big Ten back!" and I just don't think the numbers bear that out. He was generally average at best, with the potential for an occasional huge game. Which does make him in some sense above average, but we need consistency.

 

[CFHusker]

Thanks for the research on Mills inside the 5 - that is better than I expected for sure. But I would disagree about it being consistent. I like my 4.7 average to not be dependent on one game against Rutgers. He averaged 3.5 across the other 5 games he played - consistent 3.5 with potential for an explosion isn't great. Obviously everyone has good and bad games, but a drop of 1.2 per carry based on one game is a pretty big outlier. And the year before was similar, more outliers (2) because of more games played (12).

In his Nebraska career he's basically a 3.7 YPC back (15 games), with a 16% chance of being a 9.3 YPC back (3 games). For the comment about the 3.6 average in 2019 being decent instead of bad - it's a bad average for a college back. And I wasn't clear on it in the post, but I was trying to say individual games were mediocre to bad - 15/44 and 10/26 are really bad. 11/67 is  better than mediocre. So maybe not the most accurate range. The one great game against Wisconsin makes this interesting, his other 2 big games were against 83rd (RU - 2020) and 113th (NIU - 2019) defenses in YPC allowed and I'd be tempted to say he only ran on bad defenses. 

This is a lot of negativity which I don't like to do, I appreciate that Mills was a solid back and I liked watching him. But after that Wisconsin game the narrative was "he figured it out, he's a top Big Ten back!" and I just don't think the numbers bear that out. He was generally average at best, with the potential for an occasional huge game. Which does make him in some sense above average, but we need consistency.

Games cannot be an outlier whether really good or really bad.