** 2021 Opponent Previews : Northwestern (Game 6) **

Husker in WI said:
Alright frequently overachieve, not always.. But honestly with their talent level, you could argue even the 5-7 years are sort of overachieving. They find/develop gems like Rashawn Slater and Greg Newsome occasionally, but for the most part they are an FCS school athletically. And yet since 2015 they've been top-2 in the (admittedly weak at times) West 4 out of 6 years. But yeah, if they're even average this year he'll have earned that 10 year extension. At least one of NW, Illinois, or Purdue (or us, honestly) will hit some bad breaks early and totally implode this year.
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That's stretching it a bit.

 
ColoradoHusk said:
I think that answer is yes.  If it's a close game, those are typically 50-50 ball games.  Frost has gone 1-2 against Northwestern with all of those games being close games.  NU could very well be 3-0 or 0-3.  If it's a close game, I don't think it favors either team.  However, I think Nebraska has the better opportunity of making it a 10+ point game than Northwestern does.  That's why I would put NU's win probability higher than Northwestern in this game.
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Yep.

Just the annual reminder that it has been much more about Nebraska beating themselves than Northwestern beating us.

Total Offense Yards vs. Northwestern

2011 (L): NU - 411; NW - 468

2012 (W): NU - 543; NW - 301

2013 (W): NU - 472; NW - 326

2014 (W): NU - 471; NW - 290

2015 (L): NU - 373; NW - 333

2016 (W): NU - 556; NW - 388

2017 (L/OT): NU - 337; NW - 475

2018 (L/OT): NU - 482; NW - 487

2019 (W): NU - 319; NW - 293

2020 (L): NU - 442; NW - 317

Only in 2011 and 2017 did they really out-play us.  We lost by 3 in 2011 and in overtime in 2017.

A couple years have been close but most of the time we had a significant advantage in yards.  But we turn the ball over and do enough stupid things to lose.

 
Mavric said:
Yep.

Just the annual reminder that it has been much more about Nebraska beating themselves than Northwestern beating us.

Total Offense Yards vs. Northwestern

2011 (L): NU - 411; NW - 468

2012 (W): NU - 543; NW - 301

2013 (W): NU - 472; NW - 326

2014 (W): NU - 471; NW - 290

2015 (L): NU - 373; NW - 333

2016 (W): NU - 556; NW - 388

2017 (L/OT): NU - 337; NW - 475

2018 (L/OT): NU - 482; NW - 487

2019 (W): NU - 319; NW - 293

2020 (L): NU - 442; NW - 317

Only in 2011 and 2017 did they really out-play us.  We lost by 3 in 2011 and in overtime in 2017.

A couple years have been close but most of the time we had a significant advantage in yards.  But we turn the ball over and do enough stupid things to lose.
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Interesting. I thought I'd take a look at turnovers:

Turnovers vs. Northwestern (TO margin)

2011 (L): NU - 2; NW - 3 (-1)

2012 (W): NU - 3; NW - 0 (-3)

2013 (W): NU - 4; NW - 1 (-3)

2014 (W): NU - 0; NW - 1 (-1)

2015 (L): NU - 1; NW - 0 (+1)

2016 (W): NU - 2; NW - 2 (0)

2017 (L/OT): NU - 3; NW - 2 (-1)

2018 (L/OT): NU - 3; NW - 2 (-1)

2019 (W): NU - 0; NW - 1 (+1)

2020 (L): NU - 2; NW - 2 (0)

The results are surprising in that the TO margin does not seem to correlate with who won.

Nebraska is 1-1 when winning the TO margin, 1-1 when TO margin is 0 (as expected), and is 3-3 when losing the TO margin including winning twice when down by 3 TO's. Weird.

 
RedDenver said:
Interesting. I thought I'd take a look at turnovers:

Turnovers vs. Northwestern (TO margin)

2011 (L): NU - 2; NW - 3 (-1)

2012 (W): NU - 3; NW - 0 (-3)

2013 (W): NU - 4; NW - 1 (-3)

2014 (W): NU - 0; NW - 1 (-1)

2015 (L): NU - 1; NW - 0 (+1)

2016 (W): NU - 2; NW - 2 (0)

2017 (L/OT): NU - 3; NW - 2 (-1)

2018 (L/OT): NU - 3; NW - 2 (-1)

2019 (W): NU - 0; NW - 1 (+1)

2020 (L): NU - 2; NW - 2 (0)

The results are surprising in that the TO margin does not seem to correlate with who won.

Nebraska is 1-1 when winning the TO margin, 1-1 when TO margin is 0 (as expected), and is 3-3 when losing the TO margin including winning twice when down by 3 TO's. Weird.
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Yeah, I don't think it correlates as well because we were outplaying them by so far that we could afford to turn it over some and still win.  Basically it affect the margin more than the win/loss outcome.

2011 - They outplayed us but their turnovers kept it closer

2012 - We outgained them by 242 but only won by one because we were -3 in turnovers

2013 - We outgained them by 146 but only won by three because we were -3

2014 - We won handily because we didn't turn it over

2015 - Yardage was basically even but we lost by two and were -1

2016 - We outgained them by 168 and were even in turnover so we won by two scores

2017 - We were outgained by 138 and lost the turnover battle but still got it to overtime

2018 - Yardage was basically even but we lost in OT and were -1

2019 - We had a slight yardage edge and were +1 and won

2020 - We outgained them by 125 but couldn't convert in the red zone

 
Mavric said:
Yeah, I don't think it correlates as well because we were outplaying them by so far that we could afford to turn it over some and still win.  Basically it affect the margin more than the win/loss outcome.

2011 - They outplayed us but their turnovers kept it closer

2012 - We outgained them by 242 but only won by one because we were -3 in turnovers

2013 - We outgained them by 146 but only won by three because we were -3

2014 - We won handily because we didn't turn it over

2015 - Yardage was basically even but we lost by two and were -1

2016 - We outgained them by 168 and were even in turnover so we won by two scores

2017 - We were outgained by 138 and lost the turnover battle but still got it to overtime

2018 - Yardage was basically even but we lost in OT and were -1

2019 - We had a slight yardage edge and were +1 and won

2020 - We outgained them by 125 but couldn't convert in the red zone
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Good analysis.

 
Mavric said:
Yeah, I don't think it correlates as well because we were outplaying them by so far that we could afford to turn it over some and still win.  Basically it affect the margin more than the win/loss outcome.

2011 - They outplayed us but their turnovers kept it closer

2012 - We outgained them by 242 but only won by one because we were -3 in turnovers

2013 - We outgained them by 146 but only won by three because we were -3

2014 - We won handily because we didn't turn it over

2015 - Yardage was basically even but we lost by two and were -1

2016 - We outgained them by 168 and were even in turnover so we won by two scores

2017 - We were outgained by 138 and lost the turnover battle but still got it to overtime

2018 - Yardage was basically even but we lost in OT and were -1

2019 - We had a slight yardage edge and were +1 and won

2020 - We outgained them by 125 but couldn't convert in the red zone
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what it boils down to is, if we play up to our potential and cut down on turnovers, we should win most of the games against them. 

 
Mavric said:
Yeah, I don't think it correlates as well because we were outplaying them by so far that we could afford to turn it over some and still win.  Basically it affect the margin more than the win/loss outcome.

2011 - They outplayed us but their turnovers kept it closer

2012 - We outgained them by 242 but only won by one because we were -3 in turnovers

2013 - We outgained them by 146 but only won by three because we were -3

2014 - We won handily because we didn't turn it over

2015 - Yardage was basically even but we lost by two and were -1

2016 - We outgained them by 168 and were even in turnover so we won by two scores

2017 - We were outgained by 138 and lost the turnover battle but still got it to overtime

2018 - Yardage was basically even but we lost in OT and were -1

2019 - We had a slight yardage edge and were +1 and won

2020 - We outgained them by 125 but couldn't convert in the red zone
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2018 - We were leading by 2 scores and a lot of yards until things fell apart halfway through the 4th quarter

 
Now that Porter is out for the year NW basically has lost their entire team from last year. Back up RBs transferred, good DE transferred, DC retired, QB graduated along with best WR and two very productive LBs...they have a stud DB and that is about it now. 

 
Wow.  That stadium definitely has some history but undoubtedly is dated.  

Al Capone at Northwestern vs Nebraska football game at Ryan Field (then called Dyche stadium) Oct 3rd 1931.

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