Russia

[Dr. Strangelove]

Side note, if we want to bring it home to American politics. Republicans are gonna clean house on upcoming elections. The not dumb ones are going hard after Putin, so they look tough on Russia. And when food and fuel prices go through the roof this year they'll pin it all on Dems owning all 3 branches. 

They can only win two branches. But I agree, it's extremely likely Republicans take the House and the Senate.

After the 2024 election, where the Senate map is heavily favored by the GOP, Republicans will be pushing 56-58 Senate seats despite their Senators receiving millions of fewer votes. It's likely more than a decade before Democrats have a chance to win the chamber back, if not longer. 

 

[FrantzHardySwag]

They can only win two branches. But I agree, it's extremely likely Republicans take the House and the Senate.

After the 2024 election, where the Senate map is heavily favored by the GOP, Republicans will be pushing 56-58 Senate seats despite their Senators receiving millions of fewer votes. It's likely more than a decade before Democrats have a chance to win the chamber back, if not longer. 

My HS civics teacher is somewhere very disappointed in me. My bad

 

[Mierin]

Hopefully something can be worked out. This seems way more reasonable. 

This is what I have said he wanted all along but then he was doing way more damage to the northern areas than I thought he would for a mere distraction, and then in the past few days I've started to think he actually is going to try to take all of Ukraine. Maybe that is his plan now, who knows.

But I would give in and recognize Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk if I was Ukraine. I'm not Ukrainian of course, but Russia and the so-called separatists have had the majority of that territory for years now. If Ukraine ever thought they were going to get it back, they would have taken it already.

 

[Born N Bled Red]

I disagree.  This is like letting the bully keep some of the lunch money because he got a little blood on his shirt.

I guess it's up to Ukraine, but screw Putin and his demands.  

Just like Trump University and all other corporate bad actors - defraud people of all their money, get caught and in trouble. Get forced to give 20% back and keep the rest = 80% profit. 

This is rewarding a bad actor for being a bad actor and giving them exactly what they want. The cycle will repeat itself in another 5 years, give or take, because there are no real repercussions, and they come out ahead in the end. 

 

[Born N Bled Red]

Some things will be around for a very long time. 

A more united and committed EU for one. The commitments to energy independence will continue. No state is going to want to depend so heavily on Russia for oil or gas. Military spending by NATO members will increase, especially by Germany and Baltic states.

So while the general public will no doubt move on shortly, the political environment, especially in Europe has turned against Russia in a way that will take them far longer to recover from. 

The ultimate irony is that in 15 years, Ukraine is pretty likely to deepen their ties with the West and their economy will grow and prosperity. Russia, increasingly isolated and demand for oil and gas low, will be poorer and worse off.

That is until, Putin's misinformation and election meddling campaigns get his stooges, like Trump, hired in other countries. Look at Brexit (also a Russian campaign to weaken the EU) Trump and the support of right-wing media here, China, Mexico, etc. 

There were rumors Tucker Carlson was going to run for the Republican nomination next cycle. He has already normalized rooting for Putin. Do you think he'll play well with NATO, the United Nations and the rest, or will he also take Putin's marching orders and work to destroy those safeguards? 

 

[Born N Bled Red]

They can only win two branches. But I agree, it's extremely likely Republicans take the House and the Senate.

After the 2024 election, where the Senate map is heavily favored by the GOP, Republicans will be pushing 56-58 Senate seats despite their Senators receiving millions of fewer votes. It's likely more than a decade before Democrats have a chance to win the chamber back, if not longer. 

Yeah, cuz thanks to dirtbag McConnell's disreputable tactics, they already won the Supreme Court. 

 

[commando]

would this be considered a war crime?

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

That is until, Putin's misinformation and election meddling campaigns get his stooges, like Trump, hired in other countries. Look at Brexit (also a Russian campaign to weaken the EU) Trump and the support of right-wing media here, China, Mexico, etc. 

There were rumors Tucker Carlson was going to run for the Republican nomination next cycle. He has already normalized rooting for Putin. Do you think he'll play well with NATO, the United Nations and the rest, or will he also take Putin's marching orders and work to destroy those safeguards? 

It's very much possible that Putin's stranglehold on the Republican party is strong enough to divide America from the EU. With their systemic advantages in elections, despite receiving millions fewer votes, the above is plausible. 

If nothing else, I do think the EU gets stronger. Putin, for example, is unlikely to split the bond between Germany, France, Italy etc. I still think that they're likely to commit to closer relations and larger military spending, even if their relationship with the US/UK becomes weaker.

 

[TGHusker]

would this be considered a war crime?

It sure would be wt some people I work with  6 cups a day David for example.

 

[TGHusker]

would this be considered a war crime?

One concern I have wt the sanctions is based on reflecting back to history and the 1920s.  The Treaty of Versailles placed such huge economic burdens on Germany after WW1 that it lead to the rise of Hitler - who demanded that Germany rise up out of the economic oppression and take on the world.  Well, Putin is already acting Hitler like.  Once the sanctions really start hurting his country, will the people rise up and outs him as they rose up in 1991 or will he become more 'mad' and therefore more dangerous for the world?   

The other question is: if Ukraine and Russia stop hostilities and the war comes to an end, how long due the sanctions remain?  Do we just say "We forgive you and all is well now."? Or do we keep the sanctions active  until leadership is changed in Russia? 

 

[commando]

real "cancel culture" in action   

 

[Notre Dame Joe]

This is neat https://liveuamap.com/

You must not realize how many oil leases Biden has sold since taking office. 

Biden tried to stop the leases that had already been agreed upon and lost.  It was a repeat of Obama-Biden where they stopped drilling on public land and then tried to take credit for the drilling on private land (which they couldn't stop). 

Well he succeeded. Nuclear is a heavy part of my portfolio and it looks like I'm about to be down 15-20% today. 

With whom can one buy nuclear stock anymore?  A uranium mining co?

 

[Notre Dame Joe]

This is what I have said he wanted all along but then he was doing way more damage to the northern areas than I thought he would for a mere distraction, and then in the past few days I've started to think he actually is going to try to take all of Ukraine. Maybe that is his plan now, who knows.

But I would give in and recognize Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk if I was Ukraine. I'm not Ukrainian of course, but Russia and the so-called separatists have had the majority of that territory for years now. If Ukraine ever thought they were going to get it back, they would have taken it already.

Does UKR have an armored division outside of EBay?  Russia has a long thin column that cannot move.  What better target can a defender strategically dream of?

As for wheeling and dealing.  I don't think Russia will believe in any deal that leaves Kiev out of their grasp.  The Tsars took it 500 years ago and always believed it was their territory.  

also Putin would probably accept some kind of Maginot line at his borders, meaning Russia could just start again at the next open window. 

 

[FrantzHardySwag]

This is neat https://liveuamap.com/

Biden tried to stop the leases that had already been agreed upon and lost.  It was a repeat of Obama-Biden where they stopped drilling on public land and then tried to take credit for the drilling on private land (which they couldn't stop). 

With whom can one buy nuclear stock anymore?  A uranium mining co?

Yep uranium miners or Sprott now has a Uranium trust so you can be exposed to physical. 

 

[commando]

Does UKR have an armored division outside of EBay?  Russia has a long thin column that cannot move.  What better target can a defender strategically dream of?

that column has been stuck for days and it is being whittled at.    the ukranian defense plan has been to not engage the large formations as that would play right into russias strength.  they have been letting the large formations pass and then striking the smaller supply convoys behind them.   that is why you see Ukranian farmers dragging abandoned russian tanks home behind their tractors.  the supply lines have been cut or at least cut enough to be unreliable. 

and tanks and stuff are running out of fuel and being abandoned.   US intelligence estimates that so far about 5% of all russian equipment sent into ukrain has been destroyed.  that column would be candy for a flight of A-10's or apaches.........but for now russia is being bloodied a lot more than they planned on.