Democrats "Break Glass in Case of Emergency" Plan - Picking an alternate candidate.

Moiraine said:
Like Strangelove said, polls are adjusted to account for this type of thing. I.e. if they estimate Democrats are less likely to answer their phones, but they think Democrats and Republicans will vote in equal numbers, they will weight the poll as if the same # of Democrats answered their phones as Republicans.
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OK if were going to go off polls, Biden has been up in many of the national polls recently and within the MOE in most swing states. Its going to be close no matter what and a stressful day on Nov. 5th no matter what. 

 
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Polls were showing a blue red wave prior to the 2022 mid-terms and we see how that turned out.

Polls haven't been an accurate gauge of American politics since at least 2015.

 
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I certainly think Biden wins in the end because Trump is hemorrhaging too many Republican votes as of now.   However, if Joe loses 15% of the Black vote and 45%of the Hispanic vote, he can’t win.  So those two things make this race interesting at this point, otherwise it would be Biden by a landslide.   

 
knapplc said:
Polls were showing a blue red wave prior to the 2022 mid-terms and we see how that turned out.

Polls haven't been an accurate gauge of American politics since at least 2015.
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They weren't, at all. Pundits were predicting a Red Wave, but the polls showed that races were close, especially in the Senate.

Polling aggregater 538, for example, gave Democrats a 4 in 10 chance of winning the Senate in 2022.

Archy1221 said:
I certainly think Biden wins in the end because Trump is hemorrhaging too many Republican votes as of now.   However, if Joe loses 15% of the Black vote and 45%of the Hispanic vote, he can’t win.  So those two things make this race interesting at this point, otherwise it would be Biden by a landslide.   
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This is certainly possible. Trump isn't a good candidate and his negative vision of America might just be enough to turn away voters and allow Biden to win.

I personally think that Trump is holding onto - but still losing some - of his 2020 support better than Biden. In addition, Trump is 30 points ahead with voters who didn't vote in 2020. Those two factors make me think that Trump is in a comfortable position - call it 65% at this point. 

 
RedDenver said:
It's too late for the Dems to change candidates and still beat Trump. That needed to be done before the primaries. Switching to another candidate is a guaranteed win for Trump. Sticking with Biden is a coin flip.
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I have to disagree. I don’t think very many people are enamored with Biden or Trump. A fresh face that isn’t one of those 2 old farts and who may actually have some palatable policy positions might garner a surprising amount of support in very short order.

And I don’t think the current situation is a coin flip any longer. IMO Biden hurt his chances greatly last night. That performance isn’t going to swing any undecideds his way. There are pro Trump and anti Trump people locked in but the folks in between will decide this election. Joe screwed the pooch big time last night. And this is coming from somebody who will still vote for him only because he isn’t Trump. I think most undecided people will be more affected by his confused lostness than they will hold Trump accountable for all of his lies and fantasy existence. JMO

 
teachercd said:
Reports now are that JB was sick yesterday, which seems to make sense and if you watch him today, it is pretty clear that he is back on top of things.
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his voice sounds much better today.  i could buy that he was sick yesterday just from the way he sounded and looked.

 
commando said:
his voice sounds much better today.  i could buy that he was sick yesterday just from the way he sounded and looked.
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His voice for sure was off, raspy, and sounded like he had a cold.  

Cold or allergies plus some meds for that AND what I am sure is some other meds that all 80 year old dudes are taking...you can get an interesting reaction. 

If I take NyQuil, I am out, within 30 minutes and if I don't get 12+ hours of sleep, I wake up so out of it, so groggy, so worn out.  

 
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