The 2024 Presidential Election- The LONG General Election

Who will you vote for in November - new ballot:

  • Harris

    Votes: 28 71.8%

  • Trump

    Votes: 3 7.7%

  • Kennedy

    Votes: 5 12.8%

  • Other

    Votes: 3 7.7%
  • Total voters
    39
Dr. Strangelove said:
I mean, Biden is losing massively. With the partisan tilt of the country, it's unlikely he could be doing worse that much worse. The floor for any Presidential candidates in today's politics is like 47.5%. Biden is going to get absolutely demolished in November. 

The people who have watched Joe Biden today are already voting for him, they're already baked into his (record low) approval ratings. 

Biden isn't going to suddenly make Americans unconcerned about his age, overcome 37% approval ratings, and overcome the systemic disadvantage he faces in the Electoral College.

I want him to drop out now because I want Democrats to win. Biden was in a weak position before the debate, and now his chances after the debate are near 0%.

No amount of press conferences, political rallies, or anything of the like is going to make America unsee the debate. 
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Ya thats just not true. 538 had him winning 51 out of 100 times in their updated projection yesterday. Trump winning 49 out of 100. Hes actually gained ground since debate in multiple polls. Hes leading the average or within the margin of error in MI, WI and PA. Close to margin of error in GA and NC. NV and AZ are firmly Trump, but you also got to remember both of those latter states put abortion on the ballot, so, like weve seen in multiple states already, people who dont normally vote get out and vote for those things, especially women. Polls cant predict that stuff. Hell, it is even showing FL is in play and that he has the same shot of winning FL as he does winning MN. I dont possibly believe that is accurate that FL could flip blue and MN can flip red. Thats why I take the polls with a grain of salt. And his speech in MI is already being talked about on all their local news networks, so its not just people who are already voting for him that seen it or highlights of it. You may be right, but the data is still showing he can win. 

 
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FINALLY, there it is.

Personality gets votes, attitude gets votes, humor gets jokes.  

Robots do not win elections. 

You would have to be insane to watch those two videos and want JB to quit so you can replace him with someone else.

 
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teachercd said:
Can I ask...do you own a gun?
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My wife and I took a concealed carry class before NE made it legal to carry w/o a permit because we wanted to get a gun. She suffers from depression and said after that class that its not a good idea to have a gun in the house due to her depression, so I supported her. I told her we need to rethink that decision as we get closer to Nov just in case, so I think shes onboard with that plan, so it will be soon and I will be. 

 
Ratt Mhule said:
My wife and I took a concealed carry class before NE made it legal to carry w/o a permit because we wanted to get a gun. She suffers from depression and said after that class that its not a good idea to have a gun in the house due to her depression, so I supported her. I told her we need to rethink that decision as we get closer to Nov just in case, so I think shes onboard with that plan, so it will be soon and I will be. 
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Smart move!

Now, keep staying smart and don't get a gun so that you are not part of the problem.

If you own a gun...you are part of the gun issue.  

 
Ratt Mhule said:
Ya thats just not true. 538 had him winning 51 out of 100 times in their updated projection yesterday. Trump winning 49 out of 100. Hes actually gained ground since debate in multiple polls. Hes leading the average or within the margin of error in MI, WI and PA. Close to margin of error in GA and NC. NV and AZ are firmly Trump, but you also got to remember both of those latter states put abortion on the ballot, so, like weve seen in multiple states already, people who dont normally vote get out and vote for those things, especially women. Polls cant predict that stuff. Hell, it is even showing FL is in play and that he has the same shot of winning FL as he does winning MN. I dont possibly believe that is accurate that FL could flip blue and MN can flip red. Thats why I take the polls with a grain of salt. And his speech in MI is already being talked about on all their local news networks, so its not just people who are already voting for him that seen it or highlights of it. You may be right, but the data is still showing he can win. 
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If you read the fine print on 538, his odds of winning are high because they weigh "fundamentals" - things like the economy, stock market, employment rates - heavier than other predictive models. The American Public has an extremely distorted view on these fundamentals and erroneously think thing they're terrible. On the 538 website, if they weigh the fundamentals according to how the public perceives them, Biden's odds of winning are in the mid 30% range. Other forecasts from The Economist or from Nate Silver's "Silver Bulletin" are equally pessimistic on Biden's chances and put them around 30%.

If your election strategy is to give up on Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and hope that you're within a polling error of winning the Midwest - being behind in every state - it means he's cooked. I don't know what to tell you other than Biden can't be doing that much worse. The data is always going to show ANY candidate within a polling error of winning because the partisan split of the country means it's difficult to win by margins that are higher than that.

Now look, it's fine if people really want Biden to stay in the race. He's going to make flubs every time he speaks, the American public thinks he's too old - and they believe that his age is worse than Trump's criminal liability - so he's going to hurt himself. The only people pumped up by his speeches are already Biden supporters. He's going to lose, the question is how big of an anchor he is to Democrats down the ballot.

 
Dr. Strangelove said:
If you read the fine print on 538, his odds of winning are high because they weigh "fundamentals" - things like the economy, stock market, employment rates - heavier than other predictive models. The American Public has an extremely distorted view on these fundamentals and erroneously think thing they're terrible. On the 538 website, if they weigh the fundamentals according to how the public perceives them, Biden's odds of winning are in the mid 30% range. Other forecasts from The Economist or from Nate Silver's "Silver Bulletin" are equally pessimistic on Biden's chances and put them around 30%.

If your election strategy is to give up on Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and hope that you're within a polling error of winning the Midwest - being behind in every state - it means he's cooked. I don't know what to tell you other than Biden can't be doing that much worse. The data is always going to show ANY candidate within a polling error of winning because the partisan split of the country means it's difficult to win by margins that are higher than that.

Now look, it's fine if people really want Biden to stay in the race. He's going to make flubs every time he speaks, the American public thinks he's too old - and they believe that his age is worse than Trump's criminal liability - so he's going to hurt himself. The only people pumped up by his speeches are already Biden supporters. He's going to lose, the question is how big of an anchor he is to Democrats down the ballot.
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Where did his campaign say they are giving up on those states? Hes going to NV this week. 

 
Ratt Mhule said:
Where did his campaign say they are giving up on those states? Hes going to NV this week. 
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If reporting of "sources" is to believed, the Biden staffers acknowledge that he cannot win in Arizona or Nevada (or Georgia). His path to victory relies on winning "the blue wall", 3 states he's losing.  

He's going to have to make up ground, convince the overwhelming majority of voters - including the majority in his own party - that he isn't too old for the job, while overcoming his record low approval ratings.

That doesn't mean it's impossible, but it's a long shot.

 
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