What did we learn Illinois edition

teachercd said:
No QB run game makes the traditional run game look even worse.

TR and NH get almost no push anymore.

Sad loss and I feel a pretty big set back for the season.
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I haven't seen snap counts, but it felt like we rotated way less last night than the first 3 games. Obviously it was close unlike the others, but those guys got gassed. This also was the first B1G offensive they've played, so a step up in competition and it showed in the second half.

 
Undone said:
Totally agree.

The overwhelming majority of the time, fans judge play calling in a very black & white manner. A play call was either "good" or "bad." But I think the best way to analyze it is to look at the percentage chance of one decision working versus another.

So it's 3rd & 3 on their 21 with 3:13 left to go in the game. Illinois has burned one timeout already. What you really want is to get that first down with high percentage plays and drain the clock.

If you don't have faith in your kicker, isn't it 4 down territory? And if it's 4 down territory, don't you want to run on 3rd?

Looking at that pass play again though...Lindenmeyer is ridiculously open. He has inside position and the defender has no help. If we underthrow and he has to come back to it and he's down inside the 5 it's almost best case scenario. Ugh...but still, not really a high percentage play to call, IMO. That's the problem.
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I don’t know. We barely picked up 3rd and 1s throughout the game. I think a 3rd and 3 is far from a sure thing with the run at that point. And a 4th and short is probably a toss up. I’d take that pass play every time. Dylan is generally accurate and throws a nice catchable ball. He just missed it and I don’t know how else to analyze it. That was a touchdown that we lost on an overthrow. A low percentage play would be if our running back made the same throw. 

 
Jason Sitoke said:
I don’t know. We barely picked up 3rd and 1s throughout the game. I think a 3rd and 3 is far from a sure thing with the run at that point. And a 4th and short is probably a toss up. I’d take that pass play every time. Dylan is generally accurate and throws a nice catchable ball. He just missed it and I don’t know how else to analyze it. That was a touchdown that we lost on an overthrow. A low percentage play would be if our running back made the same throw. 
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I did acknowledge in one of my first posts on this train of thought that we had struggled on short yardage running situations all game. So I'm with you there.

Another variable is how much time there was. If Lindenmeyer catches the ball, with as bad as our defense had been biting on the play action all night, Illinois can easily still come back.

But, I realize the pass was really supposed to go short in the flat to just pick up the first.

 
Undone said:
I did acknowledge in one of my first posts on this train of thought that we had struggled on short yardage running situations all game. So I'm with you there.

Another variable is how much time there was. If Lindenmeyer catches the ball, with as bad as our defense had been biting on the play action all night, Illinois can easily still come back.

But, I realize the pass was really supposed to go short in the flat to just pick up the first.
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Well tbf we did stop them after that drive. Obviously it would have been different if they had to score, but we didn't even let them in to FG range. 

 
PasstheDamnBallGuy said:
Well tbf we did stop them after that drive. Obviously it would have been different if they had to score, but we didn't even let them in to FG range. 
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They would have gone for it on any 4th had Nebraska had any sort of lead and probably had a better than 50-50 shot at getting it, so another reason Nebraska would have been better off trying to eat clock with some safe plays on 3rd and 3 and 4th if they didn't get it on 3rd.

 
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Packerhuskerfan said:
They would have gone for it on 4th and probably had a better than 50-50 shot at getting it, so another reason Nebraska would have been better off trying to eat clock with some safe plays on 3rd and 3 and 4th if they didn't get it on 3rd.
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The clock would not have mattered at all. Illinois has time outs and plenty of time. Also it's almost like I said the drive would have been different if they had to score. 

 
Undone said:
I did acknowledge in one of my first posts on this train of thought that we had struggled on short yardage running situations all game. So I'm with you there.

Another variable is how much time there was. If Lindenmeyer catches the ball, with as bad as our defense had been biting on the play action all night, Illinois can easily still come back.

But, I realize the pass was really supposed to go short in the flat to just pick up the first.
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Yeah. I heard Mitch Sherman on the postgame pod say that they should have run it twice, but he just got done saying how the OL was a mess in the 4th and only had one (!) rushing yard in the quarter.  If we run it into the teeth of the defense twice and don’t get it, or maybe lose yardage on 3rd down because we run a lead counter or something and don’t fool anyone … Satt is getting torched today for lack of creativity. 

He then pointed out that Lindenmeyer has only one catch in his career, so if you’re gonna throw that it should be to an experienced pass catcher. Well..when you throw out of a power set, it’s usually meant to fool the defense. Having Fidone and Banks out there in that formation probably doesn’t fool anyone.  You could make the same point about Illinois’ tackle eligible TD earlier. Dude is not a traditional pass catcher..which is one of the reasons it’s effective. 

 
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Packerhuskerfan said:
Nebraska possibly could have gotten multiple more first downs had they got the initial one, though.
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Yeah if we could have gotten the 1st down that's obviously the ideal scenario but our run game got stuffed a lot and we set up a passing play that had a player open. You gotta take the points if you can and we just missed. A lot of plays that went the other way could have flipped the game but I think a run there would have put us in the same exact situation we ended up in anyway. 

 
Jason Sitoke said:
You have your stud qb with an easy TD throw vs sending your backup kicker out from the left hash with plenty of time left. 
 

I honestly don’t get the criticism of the play call. Dude was a mile open. Couldn’t ask for a better call. Just missed it. 
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The criticism is that running your fullback on a deep post route is unlikely to work even if executed well. That player is just unlikely to catch a pass. That player, because of his height and speed, is hard to throw too because it must be perfect.  It's playing football on hard mode.

In contrast, they have two downs to gain 3 yards. Getting 3 yards via two running plays is playing football on easy mode. They can also run out the clock in this scenario and make the eventual kick easier.

That being said, Illinois was the better team. I felt like they were better all night, and it felt like Nebraska was clinging to the lead instead of controlling the tempo of the game. 

 
Offense:

-I’ve been a little hesitant to go all in with Raiola.  He’s the real deal.  The team is significantly better because of him.

-I really like what Satterfield is doing.

Defense:

-This defense has a scheme problem.  We we’ve beat 3 trash teams.  They will continue to struggle if it’s not addressed.

-They play loose zone and man.  If they are going to do those the have to get pressure on the QB.  They simply didn’t yesterday.

-If you’re going to bring 4, I think you’re going to have to get a little more aggressive with the other 8.  It’s nice how 4 guys are there to make the tackle, but it’s another 8 yard pass in the middle of the field.

-Bullock balled out.  Would have been bad without him.

-Tackling is inconsistent.

-Illinois average 6 yards per play.

Special Teams

-How can we not buy a kicker via NIL?

Overall

This game was lost by very poor defense.  Not officials or special teams.

 
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Dr. Strangelove said:
In contrast, they have two downs to gain 3 yards. Getting 3 yards via two running plays is playing football on easy mode. 
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You did watch the 4th quarter, correct?  Nothing was easy for the OL late in the game. 
 

Saying that a fullback is unlikely to catch a ball thrown accurately is conjecture. What is unlikely?  < 50%?

Every thing we were doing to move down the field in the 4th quarter was via the pass. That’s why I’m ok with it. And those of you being honest would agree if you had a slow white dude with no one within the zip code running down the field with raiola delivering the ball…it’s a good play. 
 

it didn’t work out…it sucks…but the result doesn’t mean the play should be ripped out of the playbook and burned in effigy. 

 
Jason Sitoke said:
Yeah. I heard Mitch Sherman on the postgame pod say that they should have run it twice, but he just got done saying how the OL was a mess in the 4th and only had one (!) rushing yard in the quarter.  If we run it into the teeth of the defense twice and don’t get it, or maybe lose yardage on 3rd down because we run a lead counter or something and don’t fool anyone … Satt is getting torched today for lack of creativity. 

He then pointed out that Lindenmeyer has only one catch in his career, so if you’re gonna throw that it should be to an experienced pass catcher. Well..when you throw out of a power set, it’s usually meant to fool the defense. Having Fidone and Banks out there in that formation probably doesn’t fool anyone.  You could make the same point about Illinois’ tackle eligible TD earlier. Dude is not a traditional pass catcher..which is one of the reasons it’s effective. 
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It's also not Lindenmeyer's fault the ball was overthrown.

Back to the claim they should have run the ball, Illinois had 6 men across the line and 4 more within 5 yards of the LOS. Yeah, I don't know about running it there.

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