Economy

Well at least Trump is finally getting rid of the uncertainty.   He and his advisors better be right or it will be a bloodbath in the House in 2026 and any special election in-between.  
 

I’ve been at 2 baseball games so have t followed much of anything since the market close except to see the chart someone listed above and the reciprocal tariff comments.  
 

My question for no one in particular for my own understanding…

The reciprocal tariff IDEA seems fine to me, stating if one country is already lobbing tariffs on us and do not do that to them, that seems a bit unfair.  Leveling the playing field is what it seems.  
 

Across the board tariffs on a country that doesn’t have tariffs on us doesn’t make a lot of sense unless you are wanting them to change a policy.  And I’d love to see how they calculated the tariff on the charts when they also considered currency manipulation (which absolutely does happen but how did they define the value of that when it comes to tariff discussions).   
 

Anyways, without a doubt there will be some short term pain if Trump admin is right and long term pain if they are wrong.   We shall see how it goes.   Buckle up I guess and be ready to buy equities in a month or two.   

 
Dr. Strangelove said:
If only we had some warning. This is a complete and total surprise. There was literally nobody who could've predicted this. I mean, do people think there are professionals who can tell us what the impact of this kind of thing would be before it happens? I for one am completely blindsided by this. There was literally no way to predict this.
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To be fair, these kinds of letters were also made in 2015 and the economy ended up being on a heater pre covid and had the least amount of Covid dip of the major world countries.   When they say Chicken Little stuff all the time, they are bound to be right once in awhile. 

 
Archy1221 said:
To be fair, these kinds of letters were also made in 2015 and the economy ended up being on a heater pre covid and had the least amount of Covid dip of the major world countries.   When they say Chicken Little stuff all the time, they are bound to be right once in awhile. 
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Yes and no. Trump said and promised a lot of stuff in 2015 and 2016,but ultimately he just passed the TCJA which is a (bad, in my opinion) way of juicing the economy because it increases the deficit in a way that isn't as efficient as it could be. 

This time Trump ran on insanity and he's actually doing it. 

 
Just remember that Trump intends to replace the money he's giving in tax breaks to the rich with the money from tariffs, and reducing the budget it funds by decimating government services used by the people who will be hurt by both the loss of those services and the consumer inflation caused by the tariffs. Except if you get to the bottom line you'll find it still adds trillions to the budget. Nobody bothers to look at the unfinished Excel spreadsheet a staffer cranked out over the weekend. In fairness, Trump assured the people "we're gonna build big beautiful things with all that tariff money" and why would he lie about something like that. 

I know some of us think its wasteful to study the multi-faceted effects of a major policy change, but this budget could use a bit more scrutiny, eh? 

 
JJ Husker said:
Where is the US labor force that can begin to replace all the stuff we buy from around the world? Where are the companies and factories?

There is a very good reason we have trade deficits with most all of these countries. A- We don’t want to make it. B- We can’t make it as cheap. C- We shouldn’t want to do away with the labor rules and regulations that would allow us to provide it competitively. How many people do you know that want to work on a factory line?

All this will do is raise our cost of living. It’s a tax on consumers. Better be some significant across the board income tax cuts, especially for lower/middle  income folks because this will affect them disproportionately.

What a f#&%ing idiot we have for a president.
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I’ve been in industry meetings all day. I went to dinner tonight with the lead economist that spoke to us. 
 

He basically said we are f#&%ed with this. It was one of the most interesting dinners I have ever had. He didn’t hold back at dinner and everyone else that was with us agreed. 

Great job republicans.   :clap

 
Archy1221 said:
Well at least Trump is finally getting rid of the uncertainty.   He and his advisors better be right or it will be a bloodbath in the House in 2026 and any special election in-between.  
 

I’ve been at 2 baseball games so have t followed much of anything since the market close except to see the chart someone listed above and the reciprocal tariff comments.  
 

My question for no one in particular for my own understanding…

The reciprocal tariff IDEA seems fine to me, stating if one country is already lobbing tariffs on us and do not do that to them, that seems a bit unfair.  Leveling the playing field is what it seems.  
 

Across the board tariffs on a country that doesn’t have tariffs on us doesn’t make a lot of sense unless you are wanting them to change a policy.  And I’d love to see how they calculated the tariff on the charts when they also considered currency manipulation (which absolutely does happen but how did they define the value of that when it comes to tariff discussions).   
 

Anyways, without a doubt there will be some short term pain if Trump admin is right and long term pain if they are wrong.   We shall see how it goes.   Buckle up I guess and be ready to buy equities in a month or two.   
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You do realize there are more dire consequences for the citizens of this country than simply partisan political issues?

What annoys the f#&% out of me is, things were basically fine. So what if trade/tariffs may have been a little out of whack in some cases. Leave it the f#&% alone, it was working. But no, blow it all the f#&% up at the expense of working people just for the benefit of the richest people in the country. It’s f#&%ing madness that only creates problems and solves nothing.

 
JJ Husker said:
You do realize there are more dire consequences for the citizens of this country than simply partisan political issues?

What annoys the f#&% out of me is, things were basically fine. So what if trade/tariffs may have been a little out of whack in some cases. Leave it the f#&% alone, it was working. But no, blow it all the f#&% up at the expense of working people just for the benefit of the richest people in the country. It’s f#&%ing madness that only creates problems and solves nothing.
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The most conspiratorial/cynical folks will tell you he’s tanking the economy on purpose so he and his rich buddies can make a quick buck buying the dip and snapping up depreciated assets.

I’m not sure that’s true, but I’m also not sure it’s not, which is sad. But I don’t trust rich, greedy a$$h@!es like Trump and Musk and I never will. Their wealth comes with a serious case of sociopathy. They don’t care who they trample to get what they want and certainly aren’t thinking about the struggles of folks like us.

 Also there’s a pretty convincing theory that they actually devised the tariff rates using a formula based on each country’s trade deficit with us, which is hilariously stupid. But Trump has detested trade deficits for a long long time. He has an extremely shoddy understanding of economics for someone who graduated from Wharton.

 
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JJ Husker said:
You do realize there are more dire consequences for the citizens of this country than simply partisan political issues?
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My post wasn’t partisan political issue.  It was about tariffs and if reciprocity between countries was good.  
 

JJ Husker said:
But no, blow it all the f#&% up at the expense of working people just for the benefit of the richest people in the country.
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How do tariffs and a down stock market benefit rich people? 

 
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