** 2024 Previews: Bill Connelly's SP+ Post-Sprint Rankings & Takeaways **

[Saunders]

Post-spring college football SP+ rankings and takeaways

And so we begin. My annual college football series typically starts in February, but the effects of the spring portal window -- namely, that I didn't want to write a preview that would be outdated within days -- dictated that we wait a bit. But now it's time. Starting in a few days, we'll preview one conference per week.

First, however, we must update the numbers. I released initial 2024 SP+ projections in early February, as is customary, but now that almost every team has released official 2024 rosters (still waiting on you, Air Force and Coastal Carolina) and the spring portal dance has mostly slowed to a crawl, it's time to do it again.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/40186201/college-football-2024-post-spring-sp+-rankings-takeaways

#40 Nebraska - Offense (#104) - Defense (#6) - Special Teams (#106)


 

Post-Spring SP+ Rankings






TEAM


SP+


OFF. SP+


DEF. SP+


ST SP+






1. Georgia


36.3


47.3 (2)


11.0 (5)


0.7 (4)




2. Ohio St.


32.7


36.6 (20)


4.0 (1)


0.5 (20)




3. Oregon


30.8


48.0 (1)


17.2 (14)


-0.2 (85)




4. Texas


29.5


45.4 (4)


16.0 (12)


0.5 (17)




5. Alabama


29.1


43.7 (7)


14.6 (8)


0.7 (2)




6. Michigan


27.5


32.9 (32)


5.5 (3)


0.6 (7)




7. Penn St.


26.8


36.1 (23)


9.3 (4)


0.4 (28)




8. Ole Miss


26.6


44.0 (6)


17.4 (15)


0.5 (26)




9. LSU


25.1


47.2 (3)


22.1 (35)


-0.1 (83)




10. Notre Dame


24.0


39.1 (10)


15.1 (9)


0.2 (53)




11. Missouri


23.1


41.4 (8)


18.3 (18)


0.3 (45)




12. Florida St.


21.4


36.9 (16)


15.5 (10)


0.6 (8)




13. Texas A&M


19.8


38.5 (11)


18.7 (21)


0.0 (73)




14. Clemson


19.8


37.0 (15)


17.1 (13)


0.1 (66)




15. Oklahoma


19.3


36.9 (17)


17.5 (16)


-0.3 (95)




16. Tennessee


19.0


37.5 (14)


18.5 (19)


0.2 (52)




17. Kansas St.


16.8


36.5 (21)


19.7 (28)


-0.3 (91)




18. Utah


16.1


31.7 (39)


15.6 (11)


0.4 (34)




19. Miami


14.4


36.9 (18)


22.5 (36)


0.7 (3)




20. Oklahoma St.


13.7


37.8 (13)


24.0 (41)


0.3 (42)




21. USC


13.6


44.0 (5)


30.5 (87)


-0.4 (100)




22. Iowa


13.2


17.9 (117)


4.7 (2)


0.4 (30)




23. SMU


12.9


36.3 (22)


23.4 (39)


-0.4 (99)




24. Arizona


12.7


38.1 (12)


25.4 (49)


0.0 (79)




25. Kentucky


12.4


33.5 (31)


21.1 (31)


0.4 (39)




26. UCLA


11.3


30.8 (51)


19.5 (27)


-0.5 (109)




27. Wisconsin


10.8


24.1 (80)


13.3 (7)


0.4 (29)




28. Louisville


10.8


29.6 (57)


18.9 (23)


0.1 (64)




29. NC St.


10.6


29.7 (56)


19.1 (25)


0.6 (15)




30. Iowa St.


10.2


29.1 (60)


18.9 (24)


0.4 (37)




31. Auburn


9.7


30.9 (50)


21.1 (32)


0.5 (27)




32. Va. Tech


9.7


31.5 (42)


21.7 (33)


0.6 (14)




33. Florida


9.6


35.1 (26)


25.5 (50)


0.6 (9)




34. W. Virginia


9.4


35.6 (25)


26.2 (52)


0.2 (54)




35. Washington


9.1


34.2 (28)


25.1 (46)


0.3 (47)




36. TCU


8.6


33.5 (30)


24.9 (44)


-0.1 (81)




37. Kansas


8.5


36.8 (19)


28.3 (66)


0.1 (60)




38. Boise St.


7.8


32.6 (33)


24.8 (43)


0.5 (23)




39. Memphis


7.2


40.5 (9)


33.4 (102)


0.1 (62)




40. Nebraska


7.1


19.6 (104)


12.5 (6)


-0.5 (106)




41. Liberty


6.6


35.8 (24)


29.3 (75)


-0.6 (124)




42. Texas Tech


5.9


31.2 (45)


25.3 (48)


0.4 (31)




43. S. Carolina


5.3


27.9 (64)


22.6 (37)


0.6 (12)




44. Maryland


5.0


22.9 (87)


17.9 (17)


0.1 (59)




45. Minnesota


4.8


23.6 (82)


18.8 (22)


0.5 (19)




46. Arkansas


4.7


31.8 (38)


27.2 (57)


0.6 (6)




47. Duke


4.6


26.5 (70)


21.9 (34)


0.5 (18)




48. UCF


4.3


30.5 (54)


26.2 (51)


-0.6 (114)




49. Rutgers


3.9


22.5 (92)


18.6 (20)


0.4 (33)




50. N. Carolina


3.8


32.1 (36)


28.3 (65)


0.3 (46)




51. App. St.


2.0


33.7 (29)


31.7 (95)


0.3 (43)




52. California


1.9


32.6 (34)


30.7 (88)


-0.7 (129)




53. UTSA


1.7


30.6 (52)


28.9 (70)


0.5 (24)




54. Troy


1.5


26.7 (67)


25.2 (47)


-0.3 (90)




55. Oregon St.


1.5


29.6 (58)


28.1 (64)


0.6 (10)




56. Louisiana


1.4


34.7 (27)


33.2 (100)


0.4 (38)




57. Fresno St.


1.4


31.5 (41)


30.2 (83)


0.5 (22)




58. JMU


1.2


30.4 (55)


29.2 (73)


0.4 (40)




59. Wash. St.


1.1


31.1 (48)


29.9 (80)


0.5 (25)




60. WKU


0.9


31.3 (44)


30.4 (86)


-0.2 (89)




61. Baylor


0.5


29.2 (59)


28.7 (69)


-0.1 (80)




62. Miami-OH


-0.6


18.8 (110)


19.4 (26)


0.7 (1)




63. Ga. Tech


-0.6


32.5 (35)


33.2 (99)


0.1 (68)




64. Syracuse


-0.9


25.7 (73)


26.6 (54)


-0.2 (86)




65. Tulane


-1.3


25.7 (72)


27.0 (55)


0.3 (48)




66. Illinois


-1.3


22.6 (90)


23.9 (40)


0.0 (77)




67. BYU


-2.0


28.2 (63)


30.2 (84)


0.6 (11)




68. Miss. St.


-2.3


25.1 (78)


27.5 (60)


0.3 (50)




69. Colorado


-2.5


31.2 (46)


33.6 (105)


0.0 (74)




70. Cincinnati


-2.6


26.6 (68)


29.3 (76)


0.1 (65)




71. UNLV


-2.9


32.0 (37)


34.8 (115)


0.7 (5)




72. Purdue


-3.0


25.5 (74)


28.5 (68)


-0.7 (128)




73. S. Alabama


-3.2


27.2 (65)


30.4 (85)


0.2 (57)




74. Northwestern


-3.4


17.0 (119)


20.3 (29)


-0.4 (105)




75. Boston Coll.


-3.8


25.2 (77)


29.1 (72)


-0.2 (84)




76. USF


-4.1


31.1 (47)


35.2 (118)


-0.1 (82)




77. Virginia


-4.5


25.5 (75)


29.9 (81)


0.0 (71)




78. Wake Forest


-4.5


23.0 (86)


27.4 (59)


-0.4 (103)




79. Houston


-4.6


28.9 (61)


33.5 (104)


-0.4 (102)




80. Texas St.


-4.6


31.3 (43)


36.0 (121)


0.3 (44)




81. Pittsburgh


-4.8


21.5 (97)


26.4 (53)


-0.2 (88)




82. Michigan St.


-4.9


15.4 (125)


20.4 (30)


0.6 (16)




83. Coastal Caro.


-5.1


25.0 (79)


30.0 (82)


-0.5 (113)




84. Stanford


-5.6


26.0 (71)


31.6 (94)


0.4 (36)




85. Indiana


-5.7


22.0 (95)


27.8 (62)


0.1 (63)




86. Toledo


-5.8


18.8 (111)


24.6 (42)


0.0 (78)




87. Wyoming


-5.9


21.4 (98)


27.3 (58)


-0.3 (96)




88. Arizona St.


-6.2


23.3 (84)


29.5 (77)


-0.5 (112)




89. Rice


-6.4


26.5 (69)


32.9 (98)


-0.6 (119)




90. Arkansas St.


-7.4


28.2 (62)


35.6 (119)


0.3 (49)




91. NIU


-7.9


17.2 (118)


25.1 (45)


-0.6 (116)




92. Air Force


-8.1


19.0 (109)


27.1 (56)


0.4 (35)




93. J'ville St.


-8.9


22.6 (89)


31.5 (93)


-0.2 (87)




94. BGSU


-9.1


22.3 (94)


31.5 (91)


-0.6 (122)




95. Army


-9.3


18.7 (112)


28.0 (63)


0.0 (69)




96. Ga. Southern


-9.7


26.8 (66)


36.5 (124)


0.2 (55)




97. Vanderbilt


-9.7


25.3 (76)


35.1 (117)


0.0 (72)




98. Colorado St.


-9.8


23.9 (81)


33.7 (106)


0.4 (32)




99. ECU


-10.6


17.9 (116)


28.4 (67)


0.0 (76)




100. Hawaii


-11.0


22.5 (91)


33.5 (103)


0.0 (75)




101. Utah St.


-11.0


31.0 (49)


42.0 (132)


-0.3 (92)




102. Ohio


-11.2


11.8 (133)


23.0 (38)


-0.7 (132)




103. Marshall


-11.2


23.4 (83)


34.6 (113)


-0.6 (120)




104. SDSU


-11.4


19.9 (103)


31.3 (90)


0.2 (56)




105. UAB


-11.4


31.6 (40)


43.0 (134)


-0.7 (134)




106. WMU


-11.5


21.2 (99)


32.6 (96)


-0.6 (125)




107. Georgia St.


-11.5


22.8 (88)


34.3 (111)


-0.6 (117)




108. Navy


-11.6


16.0 (122)


27.6 (61)


-0.5 (108)




109. N. Texas


-11.7


30.6 (53)


42.3 (133)


0.6 (13)




110. Sam Houston


-11.8


19.3 (105)


31.2 (89)


-0.3 (97)




111. ODU


-12.2


22.5 (93)


34.7 (114)


-0.6 (126)




112. SJSU


-12.4


20.9 (100)


33.3 (101)


-0.7 (130)




113. MTSU


-13.1


20.7 (101)


33.8 (108)


-0.3 (93)




114. NMSU


-13.1


20.7 (102)


33.8 (109)


0.2 (51)




115. FAU


-14.2


15.5 (124)


29.7 (78)


-0.4 (104)




116. Tulsa


-14.3


23.2 (85)


37.5 (126)


0.1 (67)




117. EMU


-15.8


13.2 (131)


29.0 (71)


0.5 (21)




118. Buffalo


-16.2


13.6 (130)


29.8 (79)


-0.3 (94)




119. CMU


-16.3


18.1 (114)


34.4 (112)


-0.6 (127)




120. Ball St.


-16.8


14.7 (126)


31.5 (92)


-0.4 (98)




121. Nevada


-17.0


19.2 (107)


36.2 (122)


0.2 (58)




122. La. Tech


-17.1


21.6 (96)


38.6 (129)


0.4 (41)




123. So. Miss


-17.6


18.7 (113)


36.2 (123)


-0.5 (107)




124. FIU


-17.9


19.3 (106)


37.2 (125)


-0.5 (110)




125. UTEP


-18.2


15.6 (123)


33.7 (107)


-0.4 (101)




126. UConn


-18.7


14.0 (129)


32.7 (97)


-0.5 (111)




127. Charlotte


-19.0


16.7 (121)


35.7 (120)


-0.6 (118)




128. UMass


-19.6


19.1 (108)


38.7 (130)


-0.7 (133)




129. Kent St.


-20.6


14.3 (127)


34.9 (116)


0.1 (61)




130. Kennesaw St.


-20.9


13.0 (132)


34.0 (110)


0.0 (70)




131. New Mexico


-21.1


16.8 (120)


38.0 (128)


-0.6 (121)




132. Temple


-21.8


18.0 (115)


39.8 (131)


-0.6 (123)




133. Akron


-22.4


6.8 (134)


29.2 (74)


-0.7 (131)




134. UL-Monroe


-23.7


14.1 (128)


37.8 (127)


-0.6 (115)

 

 

[knapplc]

I'll be surprised if our offense performs as Connelly predicts. I have no idea what our ceiling is, but our basement should be higher than #104.

I'll also be a bit surprised if our defense is in the top ten. I'd expect a bit of a drop, but still top 20. 

 

[Saunders]

I'll be surprised if our offense performs as Connelly predicts. I have no idea what our ceiling is, but our basement should be higher than #104.

I'll also be a bit surprised if our defense is in the top ten. I'd expect a bit of a drop, but still top 20. 

Remember, it's heavily weighted towards returning production.

Below are updated SP+ projections for the coming season. A quick reminder: Preseason projections are based on three factors.

1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year's SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production makes up more than half of the projections formula.

2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team's potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). This is also impacted by the recruiting rankings of incoming transfers, an acknowledgment that the art of roster management is now heavily dictated by the transfer portal. This piece makes up about one-third of the projections formula.

3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from the previous four seasons or so gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right?

(One other reminder: SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and along those lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.)