Duke/East Carolina Total Points Prediction
Official 1 UNIT Play courtesy of Right Angle Sports (www.handicapper.net)
Duke at East Carolina UNDER 54 (-110) - 10:00am Pacific
The Blue Devils enter their second full season under head coach Ted Roof and should easily have their best defense of his tenure. Roof, a former defensive coordinator is sure to have focused his efforts to improve the team on that side of the ball, particularly the run defense. They will get some big time help on the defensive line with the return of senior DE Phillip Alexander (3rd in ACC in tackles for loss in 2003) and junior DT Brian Sallee who both had to redshirt last season. They also return 6 starters plus 4 others who made 30 tackles or more last year. Duke will be much better against the run and is sure to improve on their 29.3 points per game allowed average from a year ago. Even with that high number, Duke games still only averaged 45.9ppg last year because of a stagnant offense. This year Duke brings in a new offensive coordinator, Bill O'Brien from Maryland. They return starters at all of the skill positions, but that may not be a good thing considering last years dismal numbers. There are still no standout playmakers. They have big concerns on the offensive line where they must replace 4 starters and recently lost projected started Bob Berrion to injury for the season. I do not see the offense improving much, particular in an early season road game.
East Carolina is coming off back to back embarrassing years under John Thompson. Thompson was supposed to be a defensive specialist but his teams gave up points by the boatload. This was to be the year that his defense started to show life, but new head coach Skip Holtz takes over and will probably receive the credit. ECU returns 9 defensive starters (-1 lost to season suspension) and all reports indicate they will be greatly improved. Even with the loss of suspended player, the Pirates have 11 returnees who made 20 or more stops a year ago. Holtz has clearly indicated that the new defense has made more strides than the new offense that is still trying to find its comfort zone. Starting QB James Pinkney missed spring practice and was just reinstated to the team prior to fall camp. He will have had only 20 days to learn the new system. ECU will not have its full offensive package in place to start the season, and Holtz says they will focus on fundamentals early on. Leading returning WR Bobby Good is questionable with a hamstring injury.
Duke games averaged 45.9ppg last year while ECU games averaged 60.9ppg for a combined average of 53.4ppg, right in line with today's total. However, in addition to both defenses being ahead of the offenses at this point in the season, I foresee both defenses improving significantly. I look for a 3-6 point improvement from Duke, and a 6-11 point improvement from ECU's defense that basically gave up in most games last year. That is 9 to 17 points that will have to be replaced by two offenses that are learning new systems and have questionable talent at best. Both teams badly want to establish their running games, but will be trying to do so behind highly suspect offensive lines. Weather forecast calls for sunny skies and 81 degrees for a 1:00pm local start. Look for plenty of running plays that go nowhere and players taking their time to get back to the huddle while the clock is running. The last two meetings between these two (2000 & 2002) averaged 38.5ppg. It is hard to envision either team hitting 30 today. Take the under.
RAS Official Play: UNDER 54 1 UNIT
Get the rest of this weekend's official plays w/analysis at NO CHARGE, simply visit www.handicapper.net and join the mailing list!
Good luck!
Official 1 UNIT Play courtesy of Right Angle Sports (www.handicapper.net)
Duke at East Carolina UNDER 54 (-110) - 10:00am Pacific
The Blue Devils enter their second full season under head coach Ted Roof and should easily have their best defense of his tenure. Roof, a former defensive coordinator is sure to have focused his efforts to improve the team on that side of the ball, particularly the run defense. They will get some big time help on the defensive line with the return of senior DE Phillip Alexander (3rd in ACC in tackles for loss in 2003) and junior DT Brian Sallee who both had to redshirt last season. They also return 6 starters plus 4 others who made 30 tackles or more last year. Duke will be much better against the run and is sure to improve on their 29.3 points per game allowed average from a year ago. Even with that high number, Duke games still only averaged 45.9ppg last year because of a stagnant offense. This year Duke brings in a new offensive coordinator, Bill O'Brien from Maryland. They return starters at all of the skill positions, but that may not be a good thing considering last years dismal numbers. There are still no standout playmakers. They have big concerns on the offensive line where they must replace 4 starters and recently lost projected started Bob Berrion to injury for the season. I do not see the offense improving much, particular in an early season road game.
East Carolina is coming off back to back embarrassing years under John Thompson. Thompson was supposed to be a defensive specialist but his teams gave up points by the boatload. This was to be the year that his defense started to show life, but new head coach Skip Holtz takes over and will probably receive the credit. ECU returns 9 defensive starters (-1 lost to season suspension) and all reports indicate they will be greatly improved. Even with the loss of suspended player, the Pirates have 11 returnees who made 20 or more stops a year ago. Holtz has clearly indicated that the new defense has made more strides than the new offense that is still trying to find its comfort zone. Starting QB James Pinkney missed spring practice and was just reinstated to the team prior to fall camp. He will have had only 20 days to learn the new system. ECU will not have its full offensive package in place to start the season, and Holtz says they will focus on fundamentals early on. Leading returning WR Bobby Good is questionable with a hamstring injury.
Duke games averaged 45.9ppg last year while ECU games averaged 60.9ppg for a combined average of 53.4ppg, right in line with today's total. However, in addition to both defenses being ahead of the offenses at this point in the season, I foresee both defenses improving significantly. I look for a 3-6 point improvement from Duke, and a 6-11 point improvement from ECU's defense that basically gave up in most games last year. That is 9 to 17 points that will have to be replaced by two offenses that are learning new systems and have questionable talent at best. Both teams badly want to establish their running games, but will be trying to do so behind highly suspect offensive lines. Weather forecast calls for sunny skies and 81 degrees for a 1:00pm local start. Look for plenty of running plays that go nowhere and players taking their time to get back to the huddle while the clock is running. The last two meetings between these two (2000 & 2002) averaged 38.5ppg. It is hard to envision either team hitting 30 today. Take the under.
RAS Official Play: UNDER 54 1 UNIT
Get the rest of this weekend's official plays w/analysis at NO CHARGE, simply visit www.handicapper.net and join the mailing list!
Good luck!