Early Betting Lines: Over/Unders

teachercd

teachercd

Active member
I forget which site this is from.

Ohio State 10½
Oregon 10½
Penn State 10
Indiana 8½
Michigan 8½
Washington 7½
Illinois 7½
Iowa 7½
Nebraska 7½
USC 7½
Minnesota 6½
Michigan State 5½
Rutgers 5½
UCLA 5½
Wisconsin 5½
Maryland 4½
Northwestern 4
Purdue 3

 
Oregon's schedule is a joke. Not totally their fault, a non-conference slate including Oklahoma State and Oregon State would be pretty tough some years.

They're pretty down on Michigan, who did lose a lot on defense and never really got rolling on offense. But Ohio State is the only team on their schedule who outclasses them, and they seem to have figured them out. I'd love to see them under 7.5, but I'd probably take the over.

Illinois won 10 games last year and also have a very manageable (depending on how you feel about Indiana/USC) schedule. So 7.5 feels low. But I also feel like they lucked into their good season last year - we should have beat them, Kansas should have beat them, flipping Purdue should have beat them. But we didn't and it wouldn't shock me if they turn into an Iowa-type team under Bielema. Unspectacular, but consistently winning 8-10 games by being solid and letting opponents beat themselves. 

 
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Illinois is really in a weird spot..

There is all this talk about how good they might be this year and how they have 16 guys back and blah blah blah...

But as far as gambling goes...a different story is being told.  

I kind of see Illinois closer to a 7 win team.

 
teachercd said:
Illinois is really in a weird spot..

There is all this talk about how good they might be this year and how they have 16 guys back and blah blah blah...

But as far as gambling goes...a different story is being told.  

I kind of see Illinois closer to a 7 win team.
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I agree, I'm not understanding the hype for Illinois or for Arizona State in some places. Illinois had a really easy schedule last year (nobody outside of Oregon/Penn State), and frankly should have lost to us, a bad Kansas team, and Purdue. Altmyer was way better than I expected, but he's not a gamechanger. The computers don't like them. Maybe the close game success is a Bielema skill, and their schedule is pretty easy again. But whoever wins the 9/20 Illinois/Indiana game is going to be massively overhyped for at least a week. 4-0, probably top ten, and reasonably like to get their doors blown off immediately by USC/Iowa respectively.

Full disclosure, I thought Indiana would go 3-9 and that UCLA was cooked when Foster commented that he thought his clearly concussed QB was "just sad." Not like they were a great team, but they went 4-2 down the stretch. So I have a pretty poor track record of judging other teams.  

 
Husker in WI said:
I agree, I'm not understanding the hype for Illinois or for Arizona State in some places. Illinois had a really easy schedule last year (nobody outside of Oregon/Penn State), and frankly should have lost to us, a bad Kansas team, and Purdue. Altmyer was way better than I expected, but he's not a gamechanger. The computers don't like them. Maybe the close game success is a Bielema skill, and their schedule is pretty easy again. But whoever wins the 9/20 Illinois/Indiana game is going to be massively overhyped for at least a week. 4-0, probably top ten, and reasonably like to get their doors blown off immediately by USC/Iowa respectively.

Full disclosure, I thought Indiana would go 3-9 and that UCLA was cooked when Foster commented that he thought his clearly concussed QB was "just sad." Not like they were a great team, but they went 4-2 down the stretch. So I have a pretty poor track record of judging other teams.  
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I think that game at Duke is going to make/break the season for Illinois.  If they lose that game...they are a 6-7 win team.  

 
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