Economy

BigRedBuster

BigRedBuster

Active member
I didn't really want to put this in the Trump Economy thread because I didn't want it to appear that I'm blaming everything on Trump.  Believe it or not, there are bad things that happen that he didn't cause.

We are experiencing an extremely strange time in our society.  Yes, there are lots of people hurting that are in certain industries that are negatively affected by Covid.  There are also a very large portion of our population that isn't negatively affected.  Luckily, I'm in one of those industries and, believe me, I fully understand how lucky I am for that.

That said, I've been struggling over the last several months with having to push through price increases on our products.  We are seeing record prices for our raw materials and some are becoming harder to even get.  Thank God we have good contracts with out suppliers.  Packaging materials are all going up.  I've seen an 18% increase in trucking costs just in the last month.

This all got me thinking about something yesterday...INFLATION.  Over the years, I've found it interesting that I have been able to see inflation coming before it actually comes out as a government statistic.  Well....I'm seeing it now.  

Inflation can happen when the government pumps large amounts of money into the economy.  There's an over supply of money, which creates an over demand for goods....which drive up prices....thus...inflation.

What have we seen the last 12 months?  The government pumping large amounts of money into the economy.  They are about to do it again.  Now, I'm not saying this has been the wrong thing to do.  What I'm saying is, we have to now prepare for the possible side affects of the medicine we are taking.

 
BigRedBuster said:
I didn't really want to put this in the Trump Economy thread because I didn't want it to appear that I'm blaming everything on Trump.  Believe it or not, there are bad things that happen that he didn't cause.

We are experiencing an extremely strange time in our society.  Yes, there are lots of people hurting that are in certain industries that are negatively affected by Covid.  There are also a very large portion of our population that isn't negatively affected.  Luckily, I'm in one of those industries and, believe me, I fully understand how lucky I am for that.

That said, I've been struggling over the last several months with having to push through price increases on our products.  We are seeing record prices for our raw materials and some are becoming harder to even get.  Thank God we have good contracts with out suppliers.  Packaging materials are all going up.  I've seen an 18% increase in trucking costs just in the last month.

This all got me thinking about something yesterday...INFLATION.  Over the years, I've found it interesting that I have been able to see inflation coming before it actually comes out as a government statistic.  Well....I'm seeing it now.  

Inflation can happen when the government pumps large amounts of money into the economy.  There's an over supply of money, which creates an over demand for goods....which drive up prices....thus...inflation.

What have we seen the last 12 months?  The government pumping large amounts of money into the economy.  They are about to do it again.  Now, I'm not saying this has been the wrong thing to do.  What I'm saying is, we have to now prepare for the possible side affects of the medicine we are taking.
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Do you think the inflation numbers the government puts out are either not looking at the right  components correctly or putting too much weight on certain categories?   Prices seem to be going up on common household items, groceries. 

 
Archy1221 said:
Do you think the inflation numbers the government puts out are either not looking at the right  components correctly or putting too much weight on certain categories?   Prices seem to be going up on common household items, groceries. 
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Ummm.....I've always had a problem with them not including food and fuel.  In 2006, when fuel prices went through the roof, I believe that was a major trigger for the crash that was coming in 2007 and 2008.  Many of the inflation figures didn't include fuel, so it wasn't really noticed.  But, it drained cash from family bank accounts.

As far as right now, I think many now include food and fuel, so that isn't as big of factor.  My biggest issue I raise in the OP is that the government figures for what's happening right now won't come out for months.  Meanwhile, I believe every day Americans are experiencing a major uptick in inflation.

It's something that I feel will need to be addressed in the future.

 
It is an interesting thing to keep an eye on.  
 

This summer I was actually reading a few articles where the fear was deflation.  Obviously way worse than inflation, but that’s crazy how we as a country can go from one end of the spectrum fear to the other in a relatively short time span

 
Archy1221 said:
It is an interesting thing to keep an eye on.  
 

This summer I was actually reading a few articles where the fear was deflation.  Obviously way worse than inflation, but that’s crazy how we as a country can go from one end of the spectrum fear to the other in a relatively short time span
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I think that's more of an indication of what a crazy time we are living in.  Last year, the fear was deflation.  The inflation rate for the entire year was only .6.  The graph was trending down.  But....if my views are correct, pumping so much money into the economy has turned that around and I fear it's going to go too far the other way.  Right now, I'm seeing projections for 2021 in the 2.2% range.  That wouldn't be bad at all.  But.....projections can be very wrong.

 
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Another factor in all this is how quickly the economy rebounds once we hit herd immunity with vaccines and money starts pouring back in from the sidelines.  I assume rates are gonna stay low for 2 years minimum, but if economy roars back and rates start ticking back up....

 
Archy1221 said:
@BigRedBusterwhat are the odds that this is a thread we will more simpatico than the rest???
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BigRedBuster said:
Honestly, we probably agree on a lot of things.  The biggest one we don't agree on is support for Trump over the last 4 years.  So...if we keep that out, we probably will agree on a lot here.
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There is common ground to be found in a lot of places, but Trump's divisiveness has hurt our country, our communities, our families, and the divisiveness has even affected Huskerboard. The healing begins when Trump is gone. 

#MakeHuskerboardGreatAgain

 
Trucking stocks are fire right now :)

Also, if you jumped on TPIC a few weeks ago, with Uncle Joe's Super Green Deal coming in...you are happy.  Crap day today but wait until next week.  

Also, PRTY went bonkers once Uncle Joe won...

 
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