Weird stuff can happen to even the most experienced offenses in week 1. Pre-snap penalties and holds that kill drives. Not being completely sharp and missing throws, that kind of thing. Always the safe bet to assume lower scoring output even if the opponent is a G5.
I'd be more than okay with the offense putting up 30 or so points assuming it's a comfortable win and there are promising flashes that suggest the offense will get better as the season goes on. But I understand why that seems like a pretty low O/U.
Arkansas State has won their last 8/9 games, and returned a lot of their production. Finished strong with a bowl win over UCF by 28 points. They are however a Sun Belt team...