The 2012-2013 College Football Season in Review and a Look Towards the 2013-2014 Season

[It'sNotAFakeID]

The 2012-2013 college football season ended with the Crimson Tide being crowned champions for the third time in four years, mimicking Nebraska's run in the mid 90's title run. The Tide dominated on defense and did just enough on offense, primarily through the running game; and they dominated what was considered the best conference in college football, the SEC, but more on that later. In fact, the one team the Tide lost to wasn't a part of the SEC the year before. Last year saw a continuing emergence of Texas A&M, who with the help of Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel shocked the tide in Tuscaloosa in what was considered by some to be the biggest upset of the year. Again, more on that later. There were teams who disappointed, Michigan State comes to mind. Then there were teams who achieved above and beyond what they should have achieved prior to the start of the year, Northwestern and Clemson are two of these teams.

With all that being said, let's take a look at the 2012-2013 year, find out who the best teams should have been, what the best conference was, which teams over and underachieved, and take a look towards the 2013-2014 year. What I did is I took all 123 teams stats and performed a cluster analysis: the same analysis that was performed in the How Nebraska Would've Done Elsewhere thread, separating all the teams into 18 distinct clusters and comparing those clusters based on win totals. Then within those clusters I did another cluster analysis to rank the teams from 1-123. In order to maintain consistency with the coaches and media polls I've changed the final rankings to diminish the number of mid-majors in the Top 25. When talking about the mid-major threats to next year, those excluded teams will be discussed.

The Top 30: 30-26

30. TCU Despite entering the season in turmoil, losing starting QB Casey Pachall to rehab, TCU managed to put together a 7-6 season competing well in the Big XII, there biggest loss was to Oklahoma State 36-14, and they managed to give a game to conference champion Kansas State before falling 23-10 to the Wildcats. The Horned Frogs lost to Michigan State 17-16 in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. With Pachall returning to the team for this year, the Horned Frogs look to pose a threat to the Big XII.

29. Fresno State In their first year in the Mountain West conference, Fresno State went 7-1 (9-4), their only loss to eventual champion Boise State 20-10. But the Bulldogs competed and played a tough game against other high performing teams Oregon and Tulsa, losing those games 42-25 and 27-26 respectively.

28. Oregon State Oregon State surged onto the national scene when they secured consecutive victories against ranked opponents Wisconsin and UCLA, winning those games 10-7 and 27-20 respectively. The Beavers managed to go 6-3 in conference play, losing tough games to Washington and Stanford--games which could have easily gone the other way. The Beavers fell to the Ducks in the Civil War and then lost to the Longhorns in the Alamo Bowl.

27. South Carolina For as well as the Gamecocks performed during the season it is surprising to see them ranked here, but this is where the model places them. It means that they are a team that overachieved in the 2012-2013 season. Steve Spurrier led his team to a 6-2 conference mark, scoring a win over Georgia but then falling in consecutive games to LSU and Florida. But it really was murderer's row for them as all three of those games were in a row. Nevertheless, South Carolina recovered well, beating Clemson and winning their Outback Bowl matchup against Michigan.

26. Arizona State A team that is very popular with pre-season prognosticators and the computers, Arizona State managed to win 8 games in 2012, despite a stretch of 4 losses to "murderer's row" of the Pac-12: Oregon, UCLA, Oregon State, and USC. But the Sun Devils recovered well, winning the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl against Navy in dominating fashion, 62-28. However, the Sun Devils are looking to once again pose a threat to the Pac 12 in 2013. Whether that will actually happen or not is obviously yet to be seen.

 

[Decked]

South Carolina is a top 10 team. No way do they deserve that ranking.

 

[It'sNotAFakeID]

The Top 30: 25-21

25. Texas The Longhorns, coming off a disappointing 2011-2012 season found themselves again underwhelming in 2012. But they really weren't that bad, as some of us would hope they would be. Texas was really out of two games and unfortunately for them, they were the two most important games of their schedule. They were blown out of the water in the Red River Rivalry 63-21 and then they were dismantled by Kansas State 42-24. Throw in a loss to TCU and you have yourself another disappointing by Texas standards season. But the Longhorns did win their bowl game against Oregon State and are hoping that they can use that as a springboard to get back to elite status in 2013.

24. Oklahoma At the beginning of the year, the Sooners were on a select list of teams that could make a run at the national championship. But it wasn't meant to be for Oklahoma as they fell in a heartbreaker to Kansas State 24-19. A few wins later including a dominant win over arch rival Texas had Sooner fans hoping for a one-loss berth into the national title game. But a 30-13 loss to national runner up Notre Dame slammed the door shut on those dreams. A blow out second half loss to the Aggies in the Cotton Bowl closed the book on another disappointing season for the Oklahoma Sooners.

23. Nebraska It was a heart-attack inducing year for Husker fans, none of whom could predict which team would show up to play each game. It seemed there were two types of Husker teams in 2012: the Husker team that everyone expects--a solid defense and an offense that does just enough to win, and the Husker team that makes you embarrassed to be a Husker fan--a defense that was nowhere to be seen with an offense that just couldn't keep up. In their four losses, Nebraska gave up 214 points which, if you know math, is an average north of 50 points per game. Another berth in the conference championship game only to come up short by a mile wasn't what Husker fans were expecting. But a close loss to a very good Georgia team gives hope for the 2013 season.

22. Boise State The first conference champion to make the poll, Boise State won the Mountain West in 2012 with a 7-1 conference record. Their only conference loss came to San Diego State, 21-19. The Broncos finished the year 11-2, their only other loss coming to Michigan State in their first game of the year, 17-13. In fact, Boise State loss their games by an average of 3 points. Had they gone undefeated, perhaps we would have seen a Boise State-Florida State Orange Bowl; and I guarantee that would've been more exciting than the Northern Illinois-Florida State matchup. Always a threat to bust the BCS, Boise State should be prominent again in 2013.

21. Michigan State A 6-6 record and the Spartans are ranked 21st? Well clearly this system is garbage! Not so fast, the Spartans only lost one game by more than 4 points--Notre Dame 20-3. Other than that, Sparty lost games to Ohio State (17-16), Iowa (19-16 in 2OT), Michigan (12-10), Nebraska (28-24), and Northwestern (23-20). Of those losses, you can argue that Iowa was really their only bad loss. A couple of balls bounce a different way, and Michigan State could have been playing at least in Pasadena. With an offense that is still developing despite the loss of star running back Le'Veon Bell and a defense that has been consistently good, it will be interesting to see if the Spartans can reverse their fortunes in 2013.

 

[It'sNotAFakeID]

South Carolina is a top 10 team. No way do they deserve that ranking.

The model really doesn't like teams from South Carolina, Clemson was ranked in the 60s. But if you look at South Carolina's schedule, while they played a tough stretch, they only won one game from that stretch. I was surprised to see them that low as well, but if you're looking for a reason, that could very well be it.

 

[It'sNotAFakeID]

The Top 30: 20-16

20. North Carolina The Tar Heels faced a bowl ban in the 2011-2012 season but the model doesn't care about that (as you'll see with another team featured later). North Carolina only faced on ranked team all year, a game in which they fell to the Louisville Cardinals 39-34. Other than that, the Tar Heels faced some disappointing losses to in-state rivals Wake Forest and Duke, as well as a video game scoring loss to Georgia Tech. It is really unclear to me why North Carolina comes in at #20 and ahead of teams like Oklahoma and South Carolina, but perhaps it was the brand of football the Tar Heels played that the computer liked so much. However, the lack of results from their season means that North Carolina should wind up on the underachievers list later on.

19. Wisconsin Wisconsin was a made field goal and a little less effort away from starting the year 0-3 with losses to Northern Iowa, Oregon State, and Utah State. Despite that, Wisconsin managed to squeak out a 2-1 mark and were 3-1 headed into conference play. The Badgers faced a fate in the Big Ten similar to that of Michigan State, a bunch of games that really could have gone the other way. Wisconsin lost to Nebraska (30-27), Michigan State (16-13 in OT), Ohio State (21-14 in OT), and Penn State (24-21 in OT). Unlike Michigan State, Wisconsin, due to post season bans on both Ohio State and Penn State made the Big Ten title game where they dominated Nebraska to clinch their third straight trip to the Rose Bowl. Unfortunately, Wisconsin lost another close game to Stanford, 20-14, marking the third straight year they've made the Rose Bowl and lost.

18. San Diego State It is sometimes the case that the conference champion isn't necessarily the best team in the conference. That's the case here; San Diego finished tied with Boise State a top of the Mountain West. They also held the tie breaker, but because there was a three way tie, the championship was awarded to the team with the highest BCS standing, which was Boise State. Nevertheless, the Aztecs compiled 9 wins on the season, played a tight game with Washington, but fell to former conference member BYU in the Poinsettia Bowl.

17. Vanderbilt Okay, now I must be joking. Vanderbilt ahead of South Carolina? Yeah I'm confused here, too. Nevertheless, the Commodores ended the year on a 9-4 record, continuing to boost the coaching career of James Franklin. If you take a look at their schedule, Vanderbilt performed really well in 2 of their 3 big games, losing 17-13 to South Carolina and 31-17 to Florida. After being 2-4 through 6 games, Vanderbilt rattled off 7 straight wins including a Music City Bowl victory over NC State. It'll be interesting to see if the Commodores can continue to rise up in the SEC.

16. Central Florida Another what could have been season experienced by other teams who made the Top 30 was also experienced for the Knights. They stood up to BCS level competition but ultimately fell short in games to Missouri (21-16) and Ohio State (31-16). The only conference foe that could beat the Knights was Tulsa, who won both meetings of the season (23-21 in game 1 and 33-27 in OT in the conference championship game). But UCF managed to hit the 10 win mark by beating Ball State in the Beef'O'Brady's Bowl.

 

[It'sNotAFakeID]

The Top 30: 15-11

15. Cincinnati The Bearcats went 10-3 during the 2012 season, while also managing a 5-2 conference record. The racked up a win against Virginia Tech and their losses never came by more than 7 points (Toledo 29-23, Louisville 34-31 OT, and Rutgers 10-3). The lack of conference prestige is probably what doomed the Bearcats from appearing in the polls. However, Tommy Tuberville's team managed to win their bowl game, defeating Duke in the Belk Bowl 48-34.

14. LSU What was there to say about the LSU Tigers during the 2012 season? Much like Nebraska, LSU fans didn't really know what team they were going to see on the playing field before the start of every game. They would crush Washington, but then barely squeak by Auburn. They defeated Johnny Manziel and the Aggies, but then struggle to beat Ole Miss and Arkansas in back to back weeks. Nevertheless, LSU piled up 10 wins on the year, but fell in the Chick-fil-A Bowl against Clemson, 25-24. LSU is loaded with talent, and can compete for the national title every year, and 2013 should be no exception.

13. Florida Florida was another interesting team during the 2012 season. The Gators started off strong, beating Texas A&M, LSU, and South Carolina. Then something went wrong in the Gator locker room; Florida lost to Georgia who you will find out was a very good team in 2012. But then the Gators started playing down to their opponents, beating Missouri 14-7, and then almost dropping a game to UL-Lafayette in their own yard, 27-20. An uninspiring 23-0 victory over Jacksonville State led Gator fans to believe that their matchup against Florida State was going to be a disaster. It wasn't, as it seemed like Florida regained their early season form. That form only lasted one game, Florida lost in the Sugar Bowl to Louisville, 33-23. Still an 11-2 season (7-1 in SEC play) is nothing short of a good season.

12. Northern Illinois The highest finishing mid-major team, the Huskies finished the 2012 season with a record of 12-2, a run of 12 straight wins bookended by 2 losses to Iowa and Florida State in the Orange Bowl. Quarterback Jordan Lynch put up video game like numbers for Northern Illinois and if it weren't for Johnny Manziel doing the same thing on a larger stage, Lynch would've definitely been in the running for some major awards. Still, leading your team to the MAC championship and an appearance in the Orange Bowl is nothing to shy away from. It'll be interesting to see if the Huskies can keep their form up next season.

11. Notre Dame 2012 was a dream season for the Fighting Irish, as they went a perfect 12-0 and clinched a spot in the National Championship. We all know how that turned out for them, the Irish fell to the Crimson Tide 41-14. While the offseason has been anything but easy for Notre Dame, it is noteworthy that the Irish defeated 4 ranked teams (Michigan State, Michigan, Stanford, and Oklahoma). Whether they keep that up next season, especially with the expulsion of quarterback Everett Gholson, is something to keep an eye on in 2013.

 

[It'sNotAFakeID]

The Top 30: 10-6

10. Stanford Winners of the Rose Bowl, the Cardinal were an overtime loss to Notre Dame and a 4 point loss to Washington away from supplanting Notre Dame for the chance to play Alabama. Champions of the Pac 12, Stanford racked up 12 wins, which included victories over USC, Oregon State, Oregon, and UCLA in back to back weeks. With a lot of talent returning to both the offensive and defensive side of the ball in 2013, Stanford should be early favorites to win the Pac 12, and perhaps, make their way into the national championship game.

9. Oklahoma State It is really baffling as to why the Cowboys come in at #9 on the Top 30 because they finished the year 8-5 and lacked that marquee win during the season. Still, their losses came in close fashion, as they fell by 5 to Texas, 14 to Kansas State, 3 to Oklahoma in overtime, and 7 to Baylor. A couple of different bounces of the ball and the Pokes could have found themselves on top of the Big XII and in the Fiesta Bowl. This is definitely a team to watch in 2013.

8. Texas A&M For those of you who are familiar with my work, when I ran through how the teams lined up in the SEC last season, Texas A&M was ranked in the 2nd to last group of teams with Arkansas and Tennessee. That suggested that the Aggies played a style of football that should have been crushed by the SEC. But it wasn't. Because of that, the Aggies, when compared to every team in college football, look really really good. The only team to beat the dominant Crimson Tide in 2012, Texas A&M surprised SEC nation in their first season, going 6-2 in conference play. They finished 11-2 on the year with a win in the Cotton Bowl against Oklahoma. With Heisman winner Johnny Manziel returning next season, the Aggies can certainly make a run for it all in 2013.

7. Ohio State It is unbelievable what a difference in coaching can do for a team. In 2011, Ohio State finished 7-6. Interim head coach Luke Fickell returned to his normal role when the Buckeyes brought on the out of retirement (if you can call it that) Urban Meyer. Under Meyer, that nearly same Buckeye team finished undefeated. Perhaps if the administration wouldn't have been as shortsighted as they were and took the bowl ban in 2011, Ohio State would have given Alabama a run for the title. But, with no postseason ban facing Ohio State this year, perhaps it is their turn to stand atop the college football landscape again.

6. Kansas State The Husker fan in me is dying as a type this, but it was hard not to respect what Bill Snyder did for Kansas State last season. If only the Wildcats and the Ducks would have won out, the Fiesta Bowl matchup which was won by the Ducks could have been the national championship. The SEC could have been shut out of the national championship; their streak could have been snapped. But an off night for the Wildcats in Waco ruined their chances of a dream season. Still, Kansas State went an impressive 11-2 in 2012. It's going to be interesting to see if Snyder can continue to make magic in Manhattan.

 

[It'sNotAFakeID]

The Top 30: 5-1

5. Oregon A video game like offense led the Ducks to a 12-1 record in 2012, but boy was that one loss costly. Oregon fell to Stanford in overtime in a loss that erased both a chance to appear in national championship and a conference championship game appearance for the Ducks. Now without head coach Chip Kelly, who left for the Philadelphia Eagles in the offseason, can Oregon keep up the high pace? With returning starters Marcus Mariotta and De'Anthony Thomas, there shouldn't be any doubt what Oregon is going to want to do in 2013. The more important question will be whether they can get by Stanford.

4. Michigan What? Huh? How? Why is Michigan up this high? I honestly can't tell you why. Michigan had the pieces and they used those pieces in a way that should have won them more games in 2012. But they only managed an 8 win season, which means that they'll take a place on the underachievers list later on in the series. Injuries and bad personnel decisions doomed Michigan last season. Now with Denard Robinson gone and Devin Gardner firmly planted as the starting quarterback, Michigan should pose a threat to the Big Ten and the national stage. Whether bad luck and bad decisions doom them again in 2013 will be something to watch.

3. Georgia The most prolific offense in school history led the Bulldogs to a 12-2 season, and within five seconds away from beating all mighty Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. The other loss was to #6 South Carolina. If you are going to have two losses, have them to teams in the top ten. Aaron Murray, Todd Gurley, and Kevin Marshall all return to the Bulldogs in 2013. This is definitely a team that can make a run at not only a conference championship, but a national championship as well.

2. Florida State The perennial team that computers love to love and the team loves to disappoint, the Seminoles failed to live up to the preseason hype again in 2012. Yes, they went 12-2, but they were supposed to go undefeated and threaten the national title. An embarrassing 17-16 loss to NC State doomed their chances for that halfway through the season. EJ Manuel is gone from the 'Noles, and it's clear that their defense is what is going to have to win them games next year. But the preseason hype is there again, will the Seminoles be able to live up to it?

1. Alabama I think we all saw this coming. No team has been better in the past two seasons overall than the Crimson Tide. Back to back national champions, the Tide finished 13-1 last year, with a heart pounding victory to Georgia in the SEC championship game, and a dominating (almost boring) victory over the Fighting Irish in the national championship. AJ McCarron, TJ Yeldon, and a slew of receivers return for the Tide, and we all know their offensive line and defense will be dominant as they usually are. It's going to take a lot to beat Alabama, and for yours and my sake, I hope some teams are able to crack the Alabama enigma next year.

 

[BOJ]

The Top 30: 15-11

15. Cincinnati The Bearcats went 10-3 during the 2012 season, while also managing a 5-2 conference record. The racked up a win against Virginia Tech and their losses never came by more than 7 points (Toledo 29-23, Louisville 34-31 OT, and Rutgers 10-3). The lack of conference prestige is probably what doomed the Bearcats from appearing in the polls. However, Tommy Tuberville's team managed to win their bowl game, defeating Duke in the Belk Bowl 48-34.

14. LSU What was there to say about the LSU Tigers during the 2012 season? Much like Nebraska, LSU fans didn't really know what team they were going to see on the playing field before the start of every game. They would crush Washington, but then barely squeak by Auburn. They defeated Johnny Manziel and the Aggies, but then struggle to beat Ole Miss and Arkansas in back to back weeks. Nevertheless, LSU piled up 10 wins on the year, but fell in the Chick-fil-A Bowl against Clemson, 25-24. LSU is loaded with talent, and can compete for the national title every year, and 2013 should be no exception.

13. Florida Florida was another interesting team during the 2012 season. The Gators started off strong, beating Texas A&M, LSU, and South Carolina. Then something went wrong in the Gator locker room; Florida lost to Georgia who you will find out was a very good team in 2012. But then the Gators started playing down to their opponents, beating Missouri 14-7, and then almost dropping a game to UL-Lafayette in their own yard, 27-20. An uninspiring 23-0 victory over Jacksonville State led Gator fans to believe that their matchup against Florida State was going to be a disaster. It wasn't, as it seemed like Florida regained their early season form. That form only lasted one game, Florida lost in the Sugar Bowl to Louisville, 33-23. Still an 11-2 season (7-1 in SEC play) is nothing short of a good season.

12. Northern Illinois The highest finishing mid-major team, the Huskies finished the 2012 season with a record of 12-2, a run of 12 straight wins bookended by 2 losses to Iowa and Florida State in the Orange Bowl. Quarterback Jordan Lynch put up video game like numbers for Northern Illinois and if it weren't for Johnny Manziel doing the same thing on a larger stage, Lynch would've definitely been in the running for some major awards. Still, leading your team to the MAC championship and an appearance in the Orange Bowl is nothing to shy away from. It'll be interesting to see if the Huskies can keep their form up next season.

11. Notre Dame 2012 was a dream season for the Fighting Irish, as they went a perfect 12-0 and clinched a spot in the National Championship. We all know how that turned out for them, the Irish fell to the Crimson Tide 41-14. While the offseason has been anything but easy for Notre Dame, it is noteworthy that the Irish defeated 4 ranked teams (Michigan State, Michigan, Stanford, and Oklahoma). Whether they keep that up next season, especially with the expulsion of quarterback Everett Gholson, is something to keep an eye on in 2013.

Was Tuberville coaching Cincy at that time? I though the assistant coached the team in the bowl game after Butch Jones bolted for Tennessee.

 

[It'sNotAFakeID]

The Top 30: 15-11

15. Cincinnati The Bearcats went 10-3 during the 2012 season, while also managing a 5-2 conference record. The racked up a win against Virginia Tech and their losses never came by more than 7 points (Toledo 29-23, Louisville 34-31 OT, and Rutgers 10-3). The lack of conference prestige is probably what doomed the Bearcats from appearing in the polls. However, Tommy Tuberville's team managed to win their bowl game, defeating Duke in the Belk Bowl 48-34.

14. LSU What was there to say about the LSU Tigers during the 2012 season? Much like Nebraska, LSU fans didn't really know what team they were going to see on the playing field before the start of every game. They would crush Washington, but then barely squeak by Auburn. They defeated Johnny Manziel and the Aggies, but then struggle to beat Ole Miss and Arkansas in back to back weeks. Nevertheless, LSU piled up 10 wins on the year, but fell in the Chick-fil-A Bowl against Clemson, 25-24. LSU is loaded with talent, and can compete for the national title every year, and 2013 should be no exception.

13. Florida Florida was another interesting team during the 2012 season. The Gators started off strong, beating Texas A&M, LSU, and South Carolina. Then something went wrong in the Gator locker room; Florida lost to Georgia who you will find out was a very good team in 2012. But then the Gators started playing down to their opponents, beating Missouri 14-7, and then almost dropping a game to UL-Lafayette in their own yard, 27-20. An uninspiring 23-0 victory over Jacksonville State led Gator fans to believe that their matchup against Florida State was going to be a disaster. It wasn't, as it seemed like Florida regained their early season form. That form only lasted one game, Florida lost in the Sugar Bowl to Louisville, 33-23. Still an 11-2 season (7-1 in SEC play) is nothing short of a good season.

12. Northern Illinois The highest finishing mid-major team, the Huskies finished the 2012 season with a record of 12-2, a run of 12 straight wins bookended by 2 losses to Iowa and Florida State in the Orange Bowl. Quarterback Jordan Lynch put up video game like numbers for Northern Illinois and if it weren't for Johnny Manziel doing the same thing on a larger stage, Lynch would've definitely been in the running for some major awards. Still, leading your team to the MAC championship and an appearance in the Orange Bowl is nothing to shy away from. It'll be interesting to see if the Huskies can keep their form up next season.

11. Notre Dame 2012 was a dream season for the Fighting Irish, as they went a perfect 12-0 and clinched a spot in the National Championship. We all know how that turned out for them, the Irish fell to the Crimson Tide 41-14. While the offseason has been anything but easy for Notre Dame, it is noteworthy that the Irish defeated 4 ranked teams (Michigan State, Michigan, Stanford, and Oklahoma). Whether they keep that up next season, especially with the expulsion of quarterback Everett Gholson, is something to keep an eye on in 2013.

Was Tuberville coaching Cincy at that time? I though the assistant coached the team in the bowl game after Butch Jones bolted for Tennessee.

I thought Tuberville was the head coach at Cincinnati last year. That may be wrong, but I thought he was.

 

[Army_Allen]

The Top 30: 15-11

15. Cincinnati The Bearcats went 10-3 during the 2012 season, while also managing a 5-2 conference record. The racked up a win against Virginia Tech and their losses never came by more than 7 points (Toledo 29-23, Louisville 34-31 OT, and Rutgers 10-3). The lack of conference prestige is probably what doomed the Bearcats from appearing in the polls. However, Tommy Tuberville's team managed to win their bowl game, defeating Duke in the Belk Bowl 48-34.

14. LSU What was there to say about the LSU Tigers during the 2012 season? Much like Nebraska, LSU fans didn't really know what team they were going to see on the playing field before the start of every game. They would crush Washington, but then barely squeak by Auburn. They defeated Johnny Manziel and the Aggies, but then struggle to beat Ole Miss and Arkansas in back to back weeks. Nevertheless, LSU piled up 10 wins on the year, but fell in the Chick-fil-A Bowl against Clemson, 25-24. LSU is loaded with talent, and can compete for the national title every year, and 2013 should be no exception.

13. Florida Florida was another interesting team during the 2012 season. The Gators started off strong, beating Texas A&M, LSU, and South Carolina. Then something went wrong in the Gator locker room; Florida lost to Georgia who you will find out was a very good team in 2012. But then the Gators started playing down to their opponents, beating Missouri 14-7, and then almost dropping a game to UL-Lafayette in their own yard, 27-20. An uninspiring 23-0 victory over Jacksonville State led Gator fans to believe that their matchup against Florida State was going to be a disaster. It wasn't, as it seemed like Florida regained their early season form. That form only lasted one game, Florida lost in the Sugar Bowl to Louisville, 33-23. Still an 11-2 season (7-1 in SEC play) is nothing short of a good season.

12. Northern Illinois The highest finishing mid-major team, the Huskies finished the 2012 season with a record of 12-2, a run of 12 straight wins bookended by 2 losses to Iowa and Florida State in the Orange Bowl. Quarterback Jordan Lynch put up video game like numbers for Northern Illinois and if it weren't for Johnny Manziel doing the same thing on a larger stage, Lynch would've definitely been in the running for some major awards. Still, leading your team to the MAC championship and an appearance in the Orange Bowl is nothing to shy away from. It'll be interesting to see if the Huskies can keep their form up next season.

11. Notre Dame 2012 was a dream season for the Fighting Irish, as they went a perfect 12-0 and clinched a spot in the National Championship. We all know how that turned out for them, the Irish fell to the Crimson Tide 41-14. While the offseason has been anything but easy for Notre Dame, it is noteworthy that the Irish defeated 4 ranked teams (Michigan State, Michigan, Stanford, and Oklahoma). Whether they keep that up next season, especially with the expulsion of quarterback Everett Gholson, is something to keep an eye on in 2013.

Was Tuberville coaching Cincy at that time? I though the assistant coached the team in the bowl game after Butch Jones bolted for Tennessee.

I thought Tuberville was the head coach at Cincinnati last year. That may be wrong, but I thought he was.

Cincy coach last year was Butch Jones.

 

[BOJ]

The Top 30: 10-6

10. Stanford Winners of the Rose Bowl, the Cardinal were an overtime loss to Notre Dame and a 4 point loss to Washington away from supplanting Notre Dame for the chance to play Alabama. Champions of the Pac 12, Stanford racked up 12 wins, which included victories over USC, Oregon State, Oregon, and UCLA in back to back weeks. With a lot of talent returning to both the offensive and defensive side of the ball in 2013, Stanford should be early favorites to win the Pac 12, and perhaps, make their way into the national championship game.

9. Oklahoma State It is really baffling as to why the Cowboys come in at #9 on the Top 30 because they finished the year 8-5 and lacked that marquee win during the season. Still, their losses came in close fashion, as they fell by 5 to Texas, 14 to Kansas State, 3 to Oklahoma in overtime, and 7 to Baylor. A couple of different bounces of the ball and the Pokes could have found themselves on top of the Big XII and in the Fiesta Bowl. This is definitely a team to watch in 2013.

8. Texas A&M For those of you who are familiar with my work, when I ran through how the teams lined up in the SEC last season, Texas A&M was ranked in the 2nd to last group of teams with Arkansas and Tennessee. That suggested that the Aggies played a style of football that should have been crushed by the SEC. But it wasn't. Because of that, the Aggies, when compared to every team in college football, look really really good. The only team to beat the dominant Crimson Tide in 2012, Texas A&M surprised SEC nation in their first season, going 6-2 in conference play. They finished 11-2 on the year with a win in the Cotton Bowl against Oklahoma. With Heisman winner Johnny Manziel returning next season, the Aggies can certainly make a run for it all in 2013.

7. Ohio State It is unbelievable what a difference in coaching can do for a team. In 2011, Ohio State finished 7-6. Interim head coach Luke Fickell returned to his normal role when the Buckeyes brought on the out of retirement (if you can call it that) Urban Meyer. Under Meyer, that nearly same Buckeye team finished undefeated. Perhaps if the administration wouldn't have been as shortsighted as they were and took the bowl ban in 2011, Ohio State would have given Alabama a run for the title. But, with no postseason ban facing Ohio State this year, perhaps it is their turn to stand atop the college football landscape again.

6. Kansas State The Husker fan in me is dying as a type this, but it was hard not to respect what Bill Snyder did for Kansas State last season. If only the Wildcats and the Ducks would have won out, the Fiesta Bowl matchup which was won by the Ducks could have been the national championship. The SEC could have been shut out of the national championship; their streak could have been snapped. But an off night for the Wildcats in Waco ruined their chances of a dream season. Still, Kansas State went an impressive 11-2 in 2012. It's going to be interesting to see if Snyder can continue to make magic in Manhattan.

What I like most is that Bill Snyder is the man. I had mad respect for him as a coach before, but he was able to walk away and watch KSU fall back into where it was 20 years ago and then he walks in and resurrects the program again (sure it took a couple years, but...). He is a fantastic football coach

*Edit: Cripes, I am an old man, not 20 years ago, maybe 30 years ago.

 

[It'sNotAFakeID]

Conference Comparison: Who Was the Best?

It is said that the conference that produces the national champion isn't necessarily the best conference. To some that [winning the national title] is the only thing that matters in determining the top conference. To others where all of the teams in the conference rank is much more important; after all, a conference is more than just one team whereas a national championship only picks the best team, not the best conference. Still others like looking at head-to-head matches; but that ignores the randomness that occurs in the college football season. It is more than likely that the Florida team of September would have wiped the floor with Louisville in the Sugar Bowl.

So here's how this is going to work: using the ranks of the teams from my analysis, I'm going to create an average ranking for the conference. That average ranking (which will take both the good with the bad--the idea being that more higher rankings will skew the average lower producing a better conference) will then be compared between the conferences. The ranks are weighted such that the top third of the conference will figure into the rank 3 times, the second third 2 times, and the final third one time. The conference with the lowest average ranking will be crowned the best conference for the 2012-2013 season. These ranks reflect the unadjusted ranks.

Conferences that were ranked had at least 8 members.

ACC

1. Florida State--#2

2. North Carolina--#24

3. Georgia Tech--#61

4. Clemson--#64

5. NC State--#68

6. Duke--#69

7. Virginia Tech--#75

8. Maryland--#81

9. Miami--#84

10. Boston College--#91

11. Wake Forest--#97

12. Virginia--#101

Average Rank: 58.83

Big Ten

1. Michigan--#4

2. Ohio State--#7

3. Wisconsin--#22

4. Michigan State--#25

5. Nebraska--#27

6. Penn State--#36

7. Northwestern--#42

8. Purdue--#53

9. Indiana--#71

10. Minnesota--#78

11. Iowa--#94

12. Illinois--#108

Average Rank: 35.04

Big XII

1. Kansas State--#6

2. Oklahoma State--#9

3. Oklahoma--#28

4. Texas--#29

5. TCU--#35

6. Iowa State--#52

7. Baylor--#58

8. West Virginia--#59

9. Texas Tech--#66

10. Kansas--#116

Average Rank: 35.9

Big East

1. Cincinnati--#17

2. Pittsburgh--#37

3. Louisville--#38

4. Rutgers--#40

5. Syracuse--#65

6. Connecticut--#88

7. Temple--#99

8. USF--#102

Average Rank: 51.56

Conference USA

1. UCF--#18

2. Tulsa--#56

3. SMU--#60

4. Houston--#62

5. East Carolina--#74

6. Rice--#77

7. Marshall--#80

8. Memphis--#90

9. UTEP--#106

10. UAB--#107

11. Southern Miss--#119

12. Tulane--#122

Average Rank: 70.16

Mid-American Conference

1. Northern Illinois--#12

2. Bowling Green--#31

3. Kent State--#41

4. Ohio--#44

5. Toledo--#45

6. Central Michigan--#51

7. Ball State--#72

8. Western Michigan--#82

9. Akron--#83

10. Buffalo--#85

11. Miami-OH--#95

12. Eastern Michigan--#118

13. Massachusetts--#123

Average Rank: 56.57

Mountain West

1. San Diego State--#21

2. Boise State--#26

3. Fresno State--#34

4. Air Force--#70

5. Nevada--#76

6. Colorado State--#89

7. Wyoming--#96

8. New Mexico--#100

9. UNLV--#109

10. Hawaii--#113

Average Rank: 61.35

Pac-12

1. Oregon--#5

2. Stanford--#10

3. Arizona State--#30

4. Oregon State--#33

5. UCLA--#43

6. USC--#48

7. Washington--#50

8. Arizona--#57

9. Utah--#93

10. California--#111

11. Washington State--#117

12. Colorado--#120

Average Rank: 44.62

SEC

1. Alabama--#1

2. Georgia--#3

3. Texas A&M--#8

4. Florida--#13

5. LSU--#15

6. Vanderbilt--#19

7. South Carolina--#32

8. Ole Miss--#49

9. Mississippi State--#52

10. Missouri--#54

11. Tennessee--#87

12. Kentucky--#92

13. Arkansas--#98

14. Auburn--#115

Average Rank: 31.07

Sun Belt

1. Arkansas State--#16

2. UL-Lafayette--#20

3. Middle Tennessee State--#46

4. UL-Monroe--#73

5. Troy--#79

6. Western Kentucky--#86

7. North Texas--#104

8. Florida International--#105

9. Florida Atlantic--#112

10. South Alabama--#114

Average Rank: 63.05

So which conference was the best? None other than the SEC. They were followed by the Big Ten, Big XII, Pac-12, Big East, MAC, ACC, Mountain West, Sun Belt, and finally, Conference USA.

 

[killer cacti]

South Carolina is a top 10 team. No way do they deserve that ranking.

The model really doesn't like teams from South Carolina, Clemson was ranked in the 60s. But if you look at South Carolina's schedule, while they played a tough stretch, they only won one game from that stretch. I was surprised to see them that low as well, but if you're looking for a reason, that could very well be it.

LOL what is this model? Not to sound like a homer, but I know we're better than the top 60's. Two losses (one to "#2" Florida State and one to SCar, while beating LSU in a bowl game).

Wow.