Getting to Indy without winning out

[JTrain]

It seems like the chance of us making it with another loss are extremely slim. We have to deal with the unlucky fact that none of the three main competitors (Iowa, Northwestern, Wisconsin) have to play Michigan State or Ohio State.

If we lose to Northwestern, they would have to lose at least two more games for us to have a chance. But even then, the only way would be for a three- or four-way tie. Their hardest games are: @ Iowa, @ Minnesota, Michigan. They are slight underdogs against Minnesota and possibly against Iowa. They should be favored against Michigan.

The same goes for Iowa. Their hardest games are: Wisconsin, Northwestern, @ Minnesota. They may be a slight favorite against Minnesota. They will be underdogs against Wisconsin.

Wisconsin already lost one, so if we lose to them, we would need one more to stay alive (and two more to finish ahead of them). Their hardest games are: @ Iowa, @ Rutgers, Minnesota. They could be favorites in all three, although not by much against Iowa and Rutgers.

Here are the ridiculous-as-usual tiebreaker rules:

(b) If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 7 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.

1. The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other.
2. The records of the three tied teams will be compared within their division.
3. The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, and 6).
4. The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents.
5. The highest ranked team in the first College Football Playoff poll following the completion of Big Ten regular season conference play shall be the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game, unless the two highest ranked tied teams are ranked within one spot of each other in the College Football Playoff poll. In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game.
6. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative.
7. The representative will be chosen by random draw.

The big problem is that Northwestern and Iowa have the incredible luck of not only not having to play Ohio State and Michigan State, but also Penn State and Rutgers. So even if we beat both of them but lose to someone else , we would need both of them to lose one other game to even have a chance to get into a tiebreaker scenario. Let's say we lose to Wisconsin. The plausible scenario here that would help us would be: Iowa beats Northwestern and WIsconsin but loses to Minnesota. That would be a four-way tie at 6-2. In games against each other, Nebraska would be 2-1, Wisconsin 1-2, Iowa 2-1 and Northwestern 1-2. Then it reverts back to a two-way tie in which case we win the head to head against Iowa.

Of course it's possible one of these teams drops a game against Illinois, Purdue or Indiana. But it's unlikely.

Basically we need to finish 11-1 to get to Indy. If we go 10-2 and our other loss is to Northwester, Wisconsin or Iowa, the chances are probably 10% or less. We would need a lot of help.

If we go 10-2 and our other loss is Minnesota or Rutgers, we would have a better shot, but still well under 50%.

 

[Redux]

I think we are more than capable of beating Minny Iowa NW and Wiscy. 6-0 on the back half the season is definitely achievable. If we should lose to a division foe I dont see any way we make the title game

 

[deedsker]

Right now it is everyone but Illinois and Purdue, imho.

Wisconsin can easily drop a game against Maryland and at Rutgers.

Minnesota looks like they may be the best team in the West, but have tOSU and have to come to Lincoln.

Iowa has to play Indiana and goes to Maryland, both could be loses, and travels to Minnesota.

Northwestern leads the division, but are not a scary team talent-wise.

The division winner could easily be a two loss team.

 

[JTrain]

The division winner could easily be a two loss team.

Yes, but if you read the OP, it will be extremely unlikely Nebraska could lose two and get in. Because who will beat Nebraska and then lose three games?

Also, Northwestern is playing better than just about anyone in the conference lately.

 

[deedsker]

The division winner could easily be a two loss team.

Yes, but if you read the OP, it will be extremely unlikely Nebraska could lose two and get in. Because who will beat Nebraska and then lose three games?

Also, Northwestern is playing better than just about anyone in the conference lately.

As I said, Iowa, Wisconsin, or Northwestern.
Right now, which seems to change week to week, I think Minnesota AND Nebraska end with two losses tied atop the division, but we beat them head to head.

I don't post sh*t haphazaroudously. If that is even a word. Whatever.

 

[Mavric]

The division winner could easily be a two loss team.

Yes, but if you read the OP, it will be extremely unlikely Nebraska could lose two and get in. Because who will beat Nebraska and then lose three games?

Wouldn't necessarily have to lose three. Could be a three-way tie with the leaders having two losses.

 

[skersfan]

This is just depressing. We have went from one of the best teams in college football history, to worrying about Northwestern and Minnesota, praying we get to a loser conference championship. How far have we fallen, but if we only lose to Minnesota it would be very hard to reach our past lofty goal of only four losses. Pathetic. Of course we only lose because the cheaters at Michigan State have the clap.

The only thing keeping this program alive is the move to the pathetic Big 10. Oklahoma, Okie Lite, Baylor, TCU and KState and we know Texas would kick our asses every year. But of course that damned BC caused it all and is still the reason we can not change the snap count.

 

[JTrain]

The division winner could easily be a two loss team.

Yes, but if you read the OP, it will be extremely unlikely Nebraska could lose two and get in. Because who will beat Nebraska and then lose three games?

Also, Northwestern is playing better than just about anyone in the conference lately.

As I said, Iowa, Wisconsin, or Northwestern.
Right now, which seems to change week to week, I think Minnesota AND Nebraska end with two losses tied atop the division, but we beat them head to head.

I don't post sh*t haphazaroudously. If that is even a word. Whatever.

In your scenario, who will Nebraska lose to, and how will Iowa and Northwestern both lose three conference games? Chances are slim to none.

 

[Lyons in the Sea of Red.]

I honestly think we'd be better off in the Big12. Bo was the only one who knew how to play defense in that conference.

 

[Thanks_Tom RR]

I have to agree with you JTrain. With one lose in conference to a team outside of our division makes it hard to visualize a path to Indy with a second loss. The only way that happens is if we are one of two two-loss teams in which we did not loss to the other two-loss team (some they don't own the head-to-head tie-breaker).

That could be someone like a Minnesota or Northwestern.

 

[The Dude]

The division winner could easily be a two loss team.

Yes, but if you read the OP, it will be extremely unlikely Nebraska could lose two and get in. Because who will beat Nebraska and then lose three games?

Also, Northwestern is playing better than just about anyone in the conference lately.

Which is funny and/or sad because Northwestern is terrible.

 

[deedsker]

The division winner could easily be a two loss team.

Yes, but if you read the OP, it will be extremely unlikely Nebraska could lose two and get in. Because who will beat Nebraska and then lose three games?

Also, Northwestern is playing better than just about anyone in the conference lately.

As I said, Iowa, Wisconsin, or Northwestern.
Right now, which seems to change week to week, I think Minnesota AND Nebraska end with two losses tied atop the division, but we beat them head to head.

I don't post sh*t haphazaroudously. If that is even a word. Whatever.

In your scenario, who will Nebraska lose to, and how will Iowa and Northwestern both lose three conference games? Chances are slim to none.

Iowa loses to Indiana, Maryland, Nebraska, and Minnesota.
Northwestern basically loses out except for Purdue and Illinois.

I don't feel like that is much of a stretch. Is it?

 

[Hedley Lamarr]

The division winner could easily be a two loss team.

Yes, but if you read the OP, it will be extremely unlikely Nebraska could lose two and get in. Because who will beat Nebraska and then lose three games?

Also, Northwestern is playing better than just about anyone in the conference lately.

As I said, Iowa, Wisconsin, or Northwestern.
Right now, which seems to change week to week, I think Minnesota AND Nebraska end with two losses tied atop the division, but we beat them head to head.

I don't post sh*t haphazaroudously. If that is even a word. Whatever.

In your scenario, who will Nebraska lose to, and how will Iowa and Northwestern both lose three conference games? Chances are slim to none.

Iowa loses to Indiana, Maryland, Nebraska, and Minnesota.
Northwestern basically loses out except for Purdue and Illinois.

I don't feel like that is much of a stretch. Is it?

Don't see that happening. I think NW can easily beat us this next weekend

 

[NUinID]

The division winner could easily be a two loss team.

Yes, but if you read the OP, it will be extremely unlikely Nebraska could lose two and get in. Because who will beat Nebraska and then lose three games?

Also, Northwestern is playing better than just about anyone in the conference lately.

As I said, Iowa, Wisconsin, or Northwestern.
Right now, which seems to change week to week, I think Minnesota AND Nebraska end with two losses tied atop the division, but we beat them head to head.

I don't post sh*t haphazaroudously. If that is even a word. Whatever.

I think the best scenario is for Nebraska to win out. chuckleshuffle

I am not sure I would say that NW is playing better than anyone in the conference. They beat a PSU team that was finally exposed for what they are, an unathletic team that has won 4 games with smoke and mirrors. They beat Wisconsin which is a good win, but if you watched the game I think Wisconsin is going backwards.

One of NW losses is to Cal and if you look at Cal right now they are probably the biggest surprise in the PAC 12 as far as most improved team.

They are playing a lot better than they started out but I not going to say best in conference. OSU is playing real well so is MSU. NU is not playing too bad either.