*** 2017 Recruiting ***
- Thread starter Mavric
- Start date
How has recruiting changed much in three years? Seems like Riley's results are quite in line with our last three to five coaches.
Granted, we have completed some major projects and are spending much more on recruiting in the last year than previously, but in terms of actual effectiveness, I'm not seeing it materialize yet.
But, maybe it will. That's why it's so important that NU at least win the B10W this year.
Granted, we have completed some major projects and are spending much more on recruiting in the last year than previously, but in terms of actual effectiveness, I'm not seeing it materialize yet.
But, maybe it will. That's why it's so important that NU at least win the B10W this year.
Looking at the 5 most recent classes that have activity make it pretty easy to see the current trend: (#'s from 247)
2014 84.72 avg 2 4* - bo's class
2015 86.17 avg 4 4* - bo and riley class (2 of those 4* where riley and most of class was bo - riley % of 4* was pretty high)
2016 87.07 avg 5 4* - riley class
2017 87.17 avg 4 4* (pace for 8 4*) - assuming class is half full and we are in on a ton of 4/5* guys
2018 89.82 avg 1 4* (pace for several) - class is 50% 4* with many 4/5* guys showing interest
The avg ranking has increased 3 points with the potential to be 5+ by the time this class fills up
The 4* or better players went from 2 to 5 with the pace this year being 8 or more
yes we need a sold W-L record to make the 2017/2018 numbers exploded, however even with a poor W-L record from last year I can't see how the above numbers aren't obvious that they have improved and with a solid (8-4) W-L record these numbers will improve / with a 10+ Win season those numbers go thru the roof for 2017/2018
Say what you want about on the field results and I believe that will be changing soon - however from a recruiting stand point the tide has turned.
2014 84.72 avg 2 4* - bo's class
2015 86.17 avg 4 4* - bo and riley class (2 of those 4* where riley and most of class was bo - riley % of 4* was pretty high)
2016 87.07 avg 5 4* - riley class
2017 87.17 avg 4 4* (pace for 8 4*) - assuming class is half full and we are in on a ton of 4/5* guys
2018 89.82 avg 1 4* (pace for several) - class is 50% 4* with many 4/5* guys showing interest
The avg ranking has increased 3 points with the potential to be 5+ by the time this class fills up
The 4* or better players went from 2 to 5 with the pace this year being 8 or more
yes we need a sold W-L record to make the 2017/2018 numbers exploded, however even with a poor W-L record from last year I can't see how the above numbers aren't obvious that they have improved and with a solid (8-4) W-L record these numbers will improve / with a 10+ Win season those numbers go thru the roof for 2017/2018
Say what you want about on the field results and I believe that will be changing soon - however from a recruiting stand point the tide has turned.
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NM11046
Donor
Mavric
Yoda
I don't know if you just used 247's numbers but here is the comparison using the 247 Composite. It'll be interesting to see where the 2017 class ends up. Pretty pointless to look at the 2018 class right now.
Class Average Recruits (# 4*+)
02 .8316 18 (2)
03 .8316 19 (2)
04 .8237 20 (2)
05* .8523 32 (7)
06* .8493 22 (5)
07* .8587 26 (6)
08 .8449 29 (3)
09 .8580 19 (2)
10* .8642 20 (5)
11 .8832 21 (9)
12 .8773 17 (8)
13 .8654 24 (7)
14 .8601 24 (2)
15 .8616 21 (4)
16 .8707 21 (5)
17 .8717 11 (4)
* 2005 - Leon Jackson isn't on 247's list but was a 4* on Rivals
* 2006 - Major Culbert doesn't show a rating on 247 but was a high 3* on Rivals
* 2007 - Armando Murillo (JUCO) not included in 247's list
* 2010 - Stanley Jean-Baptiste and Chase Harper (JUCOs) not included in 247's rankings
Class Average Recruits (# 4*+)
02 .8316 18 (2)
03 .8316 19 (2)
04 .8237 20 (2)
05* .8523 32 (7)
06* .8493 22 (5)
07* .8587 26 (6)
08 .8449 29 (3)
09 .8580 19 (2)
10* .8642 20 (5)
11 .8832 21 (9)
12 .8773 17 (8)
13 .8654 24 (7)
14 .8601 24 (2)
15 .8616 21 (4)
16 .8707 21 (5)
17 .8717 11 (4)
* 2005 - Leon Jackson isn't on 247's list but was a 4* on Rivals
* 2006 - Major Culbert doesn't show a rating on 247 but was a high 3* on Rivals
* 2007 - Armando Murillo (JUCO) not included in 247's list
* 2010 - Stanley Jean-Baptiste and Chase Harper (JUCOs) not included in 247's rankings
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So... you take one Bo class and call that the historical trend at Nebraska? That's nonsense.
Maybe you should expand to look at more numbers? And perhaps projecting 2017 and especially 2018 based on today's verbals isn't that reliable either? For example, a team having two 5* committed at the midway point in no way demonstrates or means that such team will finish with four 5* recruits. It simply doesn't work like that. In fact, at this point, we will likely see a drop in average over the next several months as we add more guys below the mean than above it (which is historically the case in recruiting).
We are something like 28th or 30th in the country in recruiting right now. 8th in the B10. For 2018, we have 2 "verbally committed" recruits and both are from Nebraska (meaning just about any coaching staff would have their commitments) and they are the ones driving the 89.92 average.
To add more context, NU's average ratings going back to include the other classes comprising the current roster (per 247):
2013 - 86.55 (statistical dead heat with 2016 and 2017) and ranked 22nd in nation
2012 - 87.73 (statistical dead head with Riley's classes, or maybe a bit higher) and ranked 30th in nation
2011 - 88.32 (outpacing current recruiting) and ranked 16th in nation
So, even if one accepted that there was a dip in 2014, which maybe there was because of the attack our staff was under that season, the HISTORICAL TREND at Nebraska is no different than what we are seeing under Riley.
If he were landing regular top 12 classes, then we could talk about how recruiting will be our savior.
But as of now, we better hope that Riley figures out how to win with his team as it is, because I don't see it miraculously upgrading to a Alabama type roster.
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Thank you for that table Mavric. I think it demonstrates that recruiting under Riley is so far consistent with Nebraska's historical trends.
And I have zero problem with that. This roster and the guys he's bringing in to replenish it are plenty talented enough to win the B10W and have a shot at the B10 championship, which opens all kinds of exciting possibilities.
Now I want to see that Riley and his staff can win with this level of talent.
And I have zero problem with that. This roster and the guys he's bringing in to replenish it are plenty talented enough to win the B10W and have a shot at the B10 championship, which opens all kinds of exciting possibilities.
Now I want to see that Riley and his staff can win with this level of talent.
bugeater17
New member
Take out the 4 star recruits for Bo that never made it to campus and that will effect this table (Dixon, Starling and Harrison just to name a few). As of now, all 5 of Riley's 4 stars will be on campus this fall. I think that is a very important factor in evaluating and comparing the recruiters from the last two staffs. Yeah its an accomplishment to get guys to sign on NLI day. However a much bigger accomplishment, in my opinion, is to get those guys to campus.
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Mavric
Yoda
Yes and no. It's a pretty slippery slope when you starting throwing things out. If you're just comparing recruiting, they need to be left in. If you're comparing contributions, then it gets pretty tricky. If you throw out guys who never made it to campus, do you also throw out guys who never played? Or got hurt? Or transferred?
For this purpose, the comparison is recruiting so I think they should be left in.
But if you take Starling out of the 2011 class, the average goes from .8832 to .8802. Dixon was actually slightly below the class average in 2013 but taking him out doesn't change the average. If you're going to throw Harrison out of the 2014 class then you also need to throw out low three-star Larenzo Stewart and probably low three-stars DeAndre Wills and Jaevon Walton so the average would probably go up.
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Thanks for putting words in my mouth that are from a different language.
I said nothing about historical trend.... I said the last five years because it is the most current and relevant. (in my post before this all started because I was talking about believing in your product - I have stated many times in the past that I felt bo stopped believing in the NU product towards the end of his tenure)
Taking current data for 2017 and 2018 is all we can do because the classes haven't reached NSD. Projections are not as reliable as the end results by definition, however they can be equally accurate if done correctly and at this point that is all we can go on. I would say you are completely wrong in the fact do to our poor record last year - it has caused a lot of the top 4/5* guys to use the wait and see approach. Usually it is the opposite where guys want to get there seat and then at the end some leave and you have to fill those seats with plan b or c guys. We are not in that position right now and that is obvious.
Again stop with the putting words in my mouth -- I have never stated that recruiting would be our savior. Even for TO recruiting wasn't the deal. NU will never be a top recruiting destination. We need to get solid recruits and then coach them up to play as a unit.
If you want to start a thread about HISTORICAL TRENDS - so be it, however this thread is about 2017 recruiting and I have chosen to discuss the years around 2017
I agree that it is hard to start plucking out names, however building your class around guys that might not qualify, might choose another sport, or play a position that you are over committed at doesn't seem like sound recruiting.
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RedSavage
New member
I think this has been talked about before, and I don't really know where we stood compared to other teams but it seemed like Bo had an unusually high amount of guys that never made it to campus/never panned out. If Riley can reduce that factor alone, I think that could be considered improved recruiting, even if the average overall player rankings in the classes are about the same as Bo's.
Mavric
Yoda