The General Election

bnilhome said:
huKSer said:
I read somewhere that polling accuracy has gone way down. The result of fewer people having land lines which traditionally tied the demographics to a better sampling statistics.
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It wouldn't surprise me. We have seen huge swings in the recent elections and each polling group will alter their sample to reflect who they they will be showing up this fall. For instance, the general party Identification is something like 36% Dems, 33% Republicans, and 30% Independents. Now these numbers will flucutate slightly, but I have seen some polls out that use a final sample of 45% Dems, 32% Republicans, and only 22% Independents. In those cases, the numbers for Trump and Johnson are lower, while they are higher for HIllary. Every time I see a poll I try to see their methodology but most of the polling firms are not real up front on how they weighted their sample to reflect the final results.
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Actually, as of 2014, it was 30% Dems, 26% Repubs, and 43% independent.

According to Gallop.

 
BigRedBuster said:
bnilhome said:
huKSer said:
I read somewhere that polling accuracy has gone way down. The result of fewer people having land lines which traditionally tied the demographics to a better sampling statistics.
Click to expand...
It wouldn't surprise me. We have seen huge swings in the recent elections and each polling group will alter their sample to reflect who they they will be showing up this fall. For instance, the general party Identification is something like 36% Dems, 33% Republicans, and 30% Independents. Now these numbers will flucutate slightly, but I have seen some polls out that use a final sample of 45% Dems, 32% Republicans, and only 22% Independents. In those cases, the numbers for Trump and Johnson are lower, while they are higher for HIllary. Every time I see a poll I try to see their methodology but most of the polling firms are not real up front on how they weighted their sample to reflect the final results.
Click to expand...
Actually, as of 2014, it was 30% Dems, 26% Repubs, and 43% independent.
According to Gallop.
Click to expand...
Good catch...i was looking at the wrong poll. These gallup numbers, if accurate, are further proof that many of the polls being released now showing the sample of 40% Dems, 32 or 33% Republicans, and only 27% Independents are not reflecting the correct sample groups.

 
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Republican vice-presidential nominee Mike Pence appeared on Hugh Hewitt's radio show Friday morning to cry foul over President Obama alluding to Donald Trump as a "homegrown demagogue."

"I don’t think name-calling has any place in public life," Pence said, according to a transcript from Hewitt's show. "And I thought that was unfortunate that the president of the United States would use a term like that."
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/07/29/mike-pence-says-name-calling-has-no-place-in-politics-as-trump-attacks-crooked-hillary/?postshare=8251469816623218&tid=ss_tw

The irony...

 
There are plenty of adults in both major parties. Take an objective, apolitical look at the things they are fighting for.

Somehow the man running the show on the GOP side, and much of the team he's drawn to him, are the furthest things from it. How can they stand for this?
 
So both conventions are officially over, and after some new polling out today, the RCP average is as follows:

Trump: 44.3

Clinton: 44.3

That is crazy. Now, I expect Hillary's numbers in some other polls to go up and her to pull ahead in a 1/1 matchup. However, in the 4-way race including Johnson and Stein, Trump is up almost a point which indicates that the 3rd party candidates continue to pull more from Hillary.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

 
So here's a very important question for all of you. Did Bill really fall asleep during Hillary's speech, or was he just thinking about that dress Katy Perry was wearing a few minutes earlier. Thoughts?

http://ntknetwork.com/bill-clinton-falls-asleep-during-hillary-clintons-convention-speech/

I know some will say I have a biased view, but as I was commenting on last night during the speech, I don't think Hillary did what she needed to with her speech and came across as angry and a bit condescending. Obama's former chief of staff stated it wasn't a great speech from HIllary as well. Perhaps she should be thankful that not as many people watched her speech as they did Trumps the Thursday night before.

http://deadline.com/2016/07/donald-trump-speech-ratings-beat-hillary-clinton-rnc-dnc-1201795035/

 
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