** Scott Frost megathread all things SF***

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hat's the mentality we face now, instant success.........Oz was here a long time before he got his championships.  it was a different time way back then, people were patient and stability in coaching/assistants


You have 200 teams trying to win in football now. You had a handful in the early 70s. Football was an amateur game in the 70s, it's corporations now. Even with all the differences, the data is similar, which should be surprising. Bobby Bowden, for example, goes 10-2 his second year at FSU. Schnellenberger, 9 wins his second year and third year at Miami, 11 and a title in his 5th. Switzer, 10-0-1 in year 1. 

 
This reeks of desperation.

Definition of desperation




1 :loss of hope and surrender to despair



2 :a state of hopelessness leading to rashness
 
Now to me desperation can be a very good thing.  One is desperate when they are an addict and they realize they need to change - now.  One can be desperate and stop doing the status quo and make a bold move to step into a new paradigm.  Desperation causes one to let go of the constraints of the past and in hope reach out to do something radically different. It is the radically different steps that bring about the big changes needed.  If you want NU to be the next Minnesota- winners of NCs decades and decades ago and content wt being middle of the pack - desperation would seem to be an over reaction.  NU needs to take a bold step- a step of desparation.   We need to step up to the next level go after &  land the best coach who is the best fit for NU.  Not just an available coach, but a coach who can take us to the next level.  To a new paradigm.  
 
Are we desperate?? - tell me if 3-4 with the likelihood of  0-1 more wins is desperate.   Tell me if the fan base has given up hope that we'll ever win anything of significance again.  18 years since the last CC, 16 years  since being a part the national conversation,  20 years since the last NC.  The step beyond hopelessness is apathy and that leads to the death of the program and any chance of becoming significant again.    Darn right we are desperate. We should have been more desperate 3 years ago.  If we aren't desperate now, it only proves that apathy has already set in.


 
Is there a name for the  attitude where you really, really don't want a good thing to happen just because a bunch of other people really, really do want it to happen? Like reverse schadenfruede maybe?
It's not that we don't want Frost, it's more Frost may not come here which isn't the end of the world. Frost may not meet our initial expectations, again not the end of the world. We can still compete without Scott Frost granted we hire a good coach. Frost may not get us to the promise land and that's something I realize from the start. Again it really isn't that we don't want Frost, he is my first choice too, but there are other choices I would be in support of as well. The sentiment around the board is Frost or bust. I don't see it that way.

 
NC in year 3, maybe a bit much. But if Frost came and he doesn't have the team back to an elite level by Year 3, I'd have serious questions to ask, because history is pretty clear that those first 2-3 years are very telling of what a coach will do. By the time we're where we are with Riley, we'd know the answer on if Frost was the guy or if we'd want to look elsewhere. I have as much belief he'll do well here as I did when UCF hired him, but you don't make the hire if you're not willing to fire.

It was the same with Pelini for me. If the goal was to get past that plateau, I'd have fired him 2 years prior. If you have that really high expectation level, no use wasting time hoping you're going to get there, not in today's environment.
Year 3 of Frost I would expect a 10 win season and a trip to Indy or damn close. I would expect to be competitive in the title game. It all depends on how he does his first 2 years but we just need to clearly be progressing. That's why Riley is going to get canned, on the field product is regressing. 

 
fwiw Navy is going to win that game this weekend.


They absolutely could. It's not a good matchup for them though. Two common opponents between them (cin, mem) and the results are decidedly toward UCF in both.

The game comes down to Navy getting stops. They don't win by very much, they beat you by generating tiny efficiency advantages. They don't get negative plays, they go for it on 4th quite a bit. The problem is UCF can sustain drives every bit as good but are several times more explosive. In yard per play differentials, Navy is +.4. UCF is +3.1. (For reference, Nebraska is -.3 and Purdue -.2). This is a massive difference.

If Navy can't get stops, especially early, it's over. I think they can generate some big plays on offense as UCFs tackling has been shaky lately, but they can't out score UCF if they don't play very good defense.

 
I like Navy and used go to Annapolis to watch them play a few times a year.  Fun times.  I am not a UCF fan, but I have been paying attention to them since the Maryland game for the same reason we all are lately.  I see UCF blowing them out by at least three touchdowns, despite me hoping Navy comes out on top.  

 
In the big picture, if UCF goes 11-0 and still be ranked outside of the top 10 will show Coach Frost he is wasting any future time there if good offers come. If Coach Frost beats Navy on Saturday, there is a good chance that USF vs UCF would be an undefeated showdown. 

 
If Navy can't get stops, especially early, it's over. I think they can generate some big plays on offense as UCFs tackling has been shaky lately, but they can't out score UCF if they don't play very good defense.
If UCF gets a big lead early and force Navy into playing catch up it should be game over. I haven't watched Navy play this year, just going off of the type of offense they run.

 
It's not that we don't want Frost, it's more Frost may not come here which isn't the end of the world. Frost may not meet our initial expectations, again not the end of the world. We can still compete without Scott Frost granted we hire a good coach. Frost may not get us to the promise land and that's something I realize from the start. Again it really isn't that we don't want Frost, he is my first choice too, but there are other choices I would be in support of as well. The sentiment around the board is Frost or bust. I don't see it that way.


I've been reading a few things the last couple of days that really does make me wonder whether Frost will come here.  One article pointed out that he'd more than likely get a five year contract plus an extension along the way.  With the initial contract and the extension, they were throwing out roughly 35 million taking Frost out to the age of 49.  If he busts here, his career is basically over at age 49.  Then, you have to put us on par with other programs coming open in the near future as well.  Is Nebraska a better job than UCLA? 

While I have no idea whether Frost would take the job or not, I do find myself in the Frost or bust camp.  Whether we like it or not, we're becoming a coaching graveyard type program.  We're not the only program like that because we have Notre Dame and Tennessee as company.  I'm afraid we're just one uninspiring hire away from a football has been.

 
If UCF gets a big lead early and force Navy into playing catch up it should be game over. I haven't watched Navy play this year, just going off of the type of offense they run.


They're completing passes at 35%. It's 10 yards per attempt, good for #5 nationally.....but it's exactly the kind of situation you think it is.

 
Year 3 of Frost I would expect a 10 win season and a trip to Indy or damn close. I would expect to be competitive in the title game. It all depends on how he does his first 2 years but we just need to clearly be progressing. That's why Riley is going to get canned, on the field product is regressing. 
You're being more optimistic than me. I want them to be competitive in all games by year 3. These blowouts aren't all on the coaches. Some changes in attitude needs to happen first which could happen fast but it's been around a long time.

 
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