Two games to go bowling

[mitchp]

40% chance of beating NW 

40% chance of beating MN

3% chance of  beating Penn State

35% chance of beating Iowa.

Feel free to check my math.

EDIT: Also, they're not out of air. They're from ESPN's FPI. Feel free to argue that their numbers are bulls#!t

Can confirm.

Using ESPN FPI:


NW


40.5%


Minn


40.7%


PSU


3.1%


Iowa


35.1%



Odds of each record are:


4-0


0.2%


3-1


6.5%


2-2


28.1%


1-3


43.0%


0-4


22.2%



So a 34.8% chance of 2 or more wins.

 

[zoogs]

6-3 with 3 most likely lopsided losses to any Big Ten team worth a darn isn’t that great. 

We hung with Wisconsin for three quarters, and "any Big Ten team worth a darn" doesn't do these other Big Ten teams credit. More accurate statement would probably be "three losses to Top 5 teams".

And this is obviously not the same team that blew it against NIU. If it were, they would have lost to Purdue and Rutgers.

 

[zoogs]

I think you've mistaken "college teams playing games" for "probabilistic independent dice roll simulation". 

 

[ColoradoHusk]

We hung with Wisconsin for three quarters, and "any Big Ten team worth a darn" doesn't do these other Big Ten teams credit. More accurate statement would probably be "three losses to Top 5 teams".

And this is obviously not the same team that blew it against NIU. If it were, they would have lost to Purdue and Rutgers.

Wisky made NU its b!^@h to end the game, and you shouldn’t use close wins over Purdue and Rutgers as a “positive” moment unless you have such a crappy coach like Riley 

 

[zoogs]

I think you're really mad about Riley, so I'll go and leave you to that.

 

[grandpasknee]

Four games left.  Riley is a life time .500 coach.

4 x .500 = 2

We're going to a bowl game I guess!

:dunno

 

[NebraskaHarry]

The most Mike Riley thing ever would be to beat Penn State.

And no one else. But I don't see a win against a most likely ticked off Penn st looking to take their ohio st loss out on someone.

 

[lo country]

We hung with Wisconsin for three quarters, and "any Big Ten team worth a darn" doesn't do these other Big Ten teams credit. More accurate statement would probably be "three losses to Top 5 teams".

And this is obviously not the same team that blew it against NIU. If it were, they would have lost to Purdue and Rutgers.

After beating Purdue, our odds have actually increased.  Prior to that, we were a .2% to beat PSU.  Our best chance for a win (pre Purdue) was NW at like 38%.  ESPN does this every week and takes into effect teams W-L to date.  

Two game we now have almost a 50% chance to win.  Huge compared to Friday...

 

[The Dude]

Odds of each record are:


4-0


0.2%


 


 

 

[Stone Cold]

Yea, the board should strictly be used from now till the end of the season to talk about possible future coaches.  There is no point to the rest of the season because again we are playing for nothing at this point.  Infact maybe losing might be fun because we can set new all time lows to build off of.

 

[ColoradoHusk]

I think you're really mad about Riley, so I'll go and leave you to that.

I’m not mad about the guy, I just want him gone.  The way some fans want to prop up his “accomplishments” is a bit much for me. 

 

[zoogs]

Look, when Frost is coach and we play and lose to three top 5 teams in a year, I hope you'll find it within yourself to say "Hey, this was a tough schedule and we lost those conference games, but look who they were against." This year could end on a positive note, or not. We'll have to wait to find out.

 

[ColoradoHusk]

Look, when Frost is coach and we play and lose to three top 5 teams in a year, I hope you'll find it within yourself to say "Hey, this was a tough schedule and we lost those conference games, but look who they were against." This year could end on a positive note, or not. We'll have to wait to find out.

If Frost or whomever is the next coach is getting their doors blown off (even if they are top 5 teams) 3 times in one season, I will be critical of that coach. Yes, there may be the random game where a blowout happens, but not 3 times in one season, combined with a loss to a MAC team and another loss where the team trailed by 28 points at half (this is assuming best case scenario). 

 

[brophog]

Remember the time when we beat Michigan State? We had no business winning that game, seriously, refs blew a call on our WR coming back into bounds for the game winning touchdown.

Remember the time someone spent the entire season saying they were overrated then the spread came out and jaws dropped and birds sang and squirrels danced on rooftops?

 

[Nebhawk]

We are 4-4 people.  We have gotten beat by great teams, and then theres that NIU crapper.  Purdue is still ranked ahead of us in ESPN's power Rankings.  Minnesota is the only team left on our schedule that is close to us in that ranking at #60.

I think one more win is more than possible, but other than that, not seeing that happen right now.  Now with that being said, I don't think Northwestern is a great football either.  I don't think that there offense is that great, but they do have better athletes than Rutgers, Illini,and Purdue.  So, what do we expect.?