Bracketology

Will Nebrasketball Make the NCAA Tournament?

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seaofred92 said:
https://theathletic.com/213366/2018/01/23/big-ten-power-rankings-warning-bells-for-michigans-offense-bad-news-for-nebraska-ridiculous-rutgers-stat/
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We need Indiana and Maryland to make a run to boost those games. 

Northwestern could win a few and that road win starts to look nicer. 

Other then that, we simply need to hope that people look at us finishing in the top half of the B1G and see we at least competed with Creighton and were VERY close with Kansas...

 
Minnesota_husker said:
We need Indiana and Maryland to make a run to boost those games. 

Northwestern could win a few and that road win starts to look nicer. 

Other then that, we simply need to hope that people look at us finishing in the top half of the B1G and see we at least competed with Creighton and were VERY close with Kansas...
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The bold still has OSU twice, MSU and Purdue on the schedule. Three are in Bloomington.  

And playing close/competed hard mean squat to the committee 

 
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PaulCrewe said:
The bold still has OSU twice, MSU and Purdue on the schedule. Three are in Bloomington.  

And playing close/competed hard mean squat to the committee 
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Depends if they do the "eye test". The problem with Indiana is if they win some of those games they might over-take us so i want them to build there resume a bit so when we knock them off we take advantage.

 


Add to this a respectable showing in the B1G Basketball Tourney (read: at least two wins or more), and I think he's right. I don't know if we'll actually see one of the Top 4 teams we need to try and beat to secure a place in the Dance until the third round if we win out or go 7-1 with our remaining schedule (which I think is realistic--the only one I'm really worried about is Illinois):

01/27  Iowa* 7 p.m. (BTN)
01/29  @Wisconsin* 8 p.m. (BTN)
02/06  @Minnesota* 8 p.m. (BTN)
02/10  Rutgers* 3 p.m. (BTN)
02/13  Maryland* 6 p.m. (BTN)
02/18  @Illinois* 2:30 p.m.
02/20  Indiana* 8 p.m.
02/25  Penn State* 4:15 p.m.

But if we can be 22-9/ 21-10 going into the B1G tourney, and add a couple of wins there...I think we're in. Granted, it may be the play-in game of the NCAA Tourney, but we'll be in the Tourney. 

Also, look at the schedule for Michigan. They have at least three games where they won't be favored. If Nebraska holds serve and can win out/go 7-1, we have a great chance at locking up the #4 spot in the conference. That will pay dividends in helping us make a deep run in the B1G tourney and pad our win column. 

 
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The only acceptable losses left on the schedule would be either Maryland or Penn State, and even then, they aren't that acceptable. 

 
2 out of 3 computers were not impressed by last night.  Shows how difficult it will be to gain ground playing our schedule.

Ranking after OSU L -> Ranking after Rutgers W

RPI #67 --> #61

BPI #74 --> #74

KenPom #63 --> #62

ESPN also calculates something called "Strength Of Record" (SOR is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve.)  We are #45 in that.

 
Cdog923 said:
The only acceptable losses left on the schedule would be either Maryland or Penn State, and even then, they aren't that acceptable. 
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Losing at home to Penn St would not be acceptable, especially needing that win to possibly get into the tournament.

I know Sconny and Minny are messes, but winning on the road at those places is going to be tough.

 
Red Five said:
Losing at home to Penn St would not be acceptable, especially needing that win to possibly get into the tournament.

I know Sconny and Minny are messes, but winning on the road at those places is going to be tough.
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You're right, but in terms of the overall standings, those are the two best teams on our schedule. 

Maryland is as must-win as it comes; they're the only team left on the schedule with a higher RPI than Nebraska. 

 
Cdog923 said:
You're right, but in terms of the overall standings, those are the two best teams on our schedule. 

Maryland is as must-win as it comes; they're the only team left on the schedule with a higher RPI than Nebraska. 
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All home games moving forward are must win.

I think you can get by with a loss at Minnesota because I think some still think they are good but we are going to have to rack up the wins. I still think if you go 7-1(which will be very hard to do with how inconsistent they are) you are in. I just have a hard time imagining us being passed on with a 13-5/22-9 record. 

I get we dont have any signature wins outside of Michigan but people wont ignore the fact the B1G still has some talent.

 
I think we drop 2 or 3 of the remaining regular season games. Not sure which ones, but it's just a hunch I have from watching the team play. You can't keep winning games while having stretches of 5-7 minutes where you don't score. Someone will eventually take advantage of that. And like @Cdog923 posted somewhere, however many losses we have in the remaining games, we need to win at least that many (or more!!) in the conference tourney. I hope they can sneak into the Big Dance because it's fun to have "your team" in there, but I'm not holding my breath.

 
GSG said:
I think we drop 2 or 3 of the remaining regular season games. Not sure which ones, but it's just a hunch I have from watching the team play. You can't keep winning games while having stretches of 5-7 minutes where you don't score. Someone will eventually take advantage of that. And like @Cdog923 posted somewhere, however many losses we have in the remaining games, we need to win at least that many (or more!!) in the conference tourney. I hope they can sneak into the Big Dance because it's fun to have "your team" in there, but I'm not holding my breath.
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My big concern is Watson. His confidence looks shot. Palmer cant be the only guy carrying you. Him and Copeland were really good against Rutgers and everyone else sort of stood back and let them work. Glynn is really good driving and finishing but has gotten too cute with the turn around fade-away. 

Moving forward, if we can get Glynn to turn it on, I like the ability to close strong.

 
GSG said:
I think we drop 2 or 3 of the remaining regular season games. Not sure which ones, but it's just a hunch I have from watching the team play. You can't keep winning games while having stretches of 5-7 minutes where you don't score. Someone will eventually take advantage of that. And like @Cdog923 posted somewhere, however many losses we have in the remaining games, we need to win at least that many (or more!!) in the conference tourney. I hope they can sneak into the Big Dance because it's fun to have "your team" in there, but I'm not holding my breath.
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This is how I feel.  No chance that we go 8-0 to close out the season. (People who are expecting this are setting themselves up for disappointment, or giving them a reason to call for Miles head.) Hell, I personally think going 6-2 is the best case scenario. (21-10 / 12-6 is a hell of a year IMO.)  Winning on the road is hard, and we'll probably be dogs at Sconnie and Minny. 

ESPN's BPI has us winning 4.5 games of the final 8.  % Chance of each win:

Iowa 67%

@ Wisc 34%

@ Minn 36%

Rut 87%

Mary 51%

@ Ill 44%

Ind 72%

PSU 59%

 
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