Bracketology

Will Nebrasketball Make the NCAA Tournament?

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The good news is that the NIT first rounds are all at home in Lincoln meaning I get to listen to more people talk about how good we are at beating bad teams in Lincoln before we go away from home and get exposed again

 
Tim Miles brings up interesting point. Has Nebraska won today it would have knocked down Michigan and negated the Quad One won from earlier in season. A win would have replaced it though. But no way to get two.

 
HS_Coach_C said:
Using the RPI predictor, Michigan would move to exactly 30th in the RPI.

That means, barring any other teams making big moves up in the RPI, that we would still have 2 Quad 1 wins.

Let's not worry about that though, let's just win the tournament.
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ScottyIce said:
Tim Miles brings up interesting point. Has Nebraska won today it would have knocked down Michigan and negated the Quad One won from earlier in season. A win would have replaced it though. But no way to get two.
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Maybe, maybe not.  Looks like they still COULD have been in the Top 30.  Depends on how everyone finishes.

I've seen a couple guys on Twitter bemoaning the same thing.  Which does stink for us - that our best win is so marginal that it's barely good enough to be good.

But others are trying to use it as evidence of a flaw in the system.  Which of course it isn't.  It's how math works.  And it's because the only RPI that matter is the one at the end of the year after all games have been played.  So the fact that it can change as the season goes along shouldn't be surprising to people.  And it's kind of odd to me that so many seem to be surprised by that.

 
Mavric said:
Maybe, maybe not.  Looks like they still COULD have been in the Top 30.  Depends on how everyone finishes.

I've seen a couple guys on Twitter bemoaning the same thing.  Which does stink for us - that our best win is so marginal that it's barely good enough to be good.

But others are trying to use it as evidence of a flaw in the system.  Which of course it isn't.  It's how math works.  And it's because the only RPI that matter is the one at the end of the year after all games have been played.  So the fact that it can change as the season goes along shouldn't be surprising to people.  And it's kind of odd to me that so many seem to be surprised by that.
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What if the “math” is wrong?

 
ScottyIce said:
Because id guess it’s broke. RPI doesn’t determine anything.

I just saw on twitter... we drubbed a team and it cost us 14 spots in RPI. Talk about broke system.

One last question mav, will you be pissed when we get in the dance?
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I saw the same tweet.  Assuming it's correct - and it probably is - I admit that it seems like that seems like it's a large swing on one game.  But - as I pointed out last week - I would guess that if you took about any team's "worst" game out it would make a lot of difference.  So it's only informative if you take out the worst game for every team an then compare it.  All it tells us right now is our attempt to soften our schedule to get Miles some more wins ended up backfiring on us.

I suspect you'd use whatever the results are to prove your point.  "Look! Four teams with an RPI in the 60s made the Sweet 16 over that time."  But, of course, that doesn't really tell you anything.

If you lay out what a reasonable result would be that would make you concede that the RPI is a pretty good measuring tool - not perfect, but pretty good - I'll do the research.  Something along the lines of "If 90% of the Sweet 16 teams were in the Top 40 of the RPI" or something like that.

 
Mavric said:
I saw the same tweet.  Assuming it's correct - and it probably is - I admit that it seems like that seems like it's a large swing on one game.  But - as I pointed out last week - I would guess that if you took about any team's "worst" game out it would make a lot of difference.  So it's only informative if you take out the worst game for every team an then compare it.  All it tells us right now is our attempt to soften our schedule to get Miles some more wins ended up backfiring on us.

I suspect you'd use whatever the results are to prove your point.  "Look! Four teams with an RPI in the 60s made the Sweet 16 over that time."  But, of course, that doesn't really tell you anything.

If you lay out what a reasonable result would be that would make you concede that the RPI is a pretty good measuring tool - not perfect, but pretty good - I'll do the research.  Something along the lines of "If 90% of the Sweet 16 teams were in the Top 40 of the RPI" or something like that.
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This is where we differ, I want the team to get wins, you think it’s about miles getting wins.

Im assuming that about 25% of the teams in the Sweet16 were RPI 40 and below.

 
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ScottyIce said:
This is where we differ, I want the team to get wins, you think it’s about miles getting wins.
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I always want the Huskers to win.  

I think our schedule the last couple years has been put together to help Miles out.

Those two things aren't mutually exclusive.

Are you going to propose an RPI metric for the Sweet 16?  I'll help you out - last year all of the Sweet 16 teams were in the top 30 in the RPI.

 
Is it really Tim Miles fault that the Big 10 was down this year. The team went 13-5 in conference the most wins ever by a Nebraska team in conference. Today was the worst game they played in 2 months bad time to not play good but this team had a good season. They return 4 starters for next year program is improving stop whinning people.

 
As disappointed as I am in how they played yesterday and the fact that they are unlikely to make the tournament, if you had you told me in October they would be a 1 or 2 seed in the NIT I'd have been happy.  Early in the season I was hoping for a middle of the pack finish in the B1G and they finished tied for 4th.  As the season progressed my hopes/expectations changed, but that doesn't mean the season was a complete disaster.  Hopefully they show up to play in the NIT and use missing the NCAA's as motivation to improve in the off-season.

 
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Otterpop said:
Is it really Tim Miles fault that the Big 10 was down this year. The team went 13-5 in conference the most wins ever by a Nebraska team in conference. Today was the worst game they played in 2 months bad time to not play good but this team had a good season. They return 4 starters for next year program is improving stop whinning people.
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I am worried Palmer goes pro- if so, there goes 40% of the team's production.

 
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