Trump’s Shocking Approval with African Americans

TheSker said:
Polls said Trump would not get elected.
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These aren’t polls on something that’s happening in the future. They are polls asking “How do you feel right at this moment?”

That said, if the polls aren’t really random then they aren’t really representative of the population.

 
Landlord said:
No, they didn't.

No, they didn't.

Do y'all not understand how odds and percentages work? ESPN's FPI says we have a 92.3% chance of winning tomorrow. Guess what ESPN's FPI doesn't say?
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So your saying there's a chance!

 
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knapplc said:
A recent NAACP poll put Trump's approval among African-Americans at 21%.

A recent Pew Research poll put Trump's approval among African-Americans at 12%.

A recent Gallup poll puts Trump's approval among African-Americans between 10%-15%.

The discrepancy, explained.

All of the available polls, from the most pro-Trump (Rasmussen) to the least (Pew) indicate that Trump's approval rating among African-Americans remains abysmal.

One might even say "shockingly" abysmal.
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To go along with these numbers from about two weeks ago, a recent ABC/Washington Post poll put Trump's job approval among African-Americans at three percent.

Shocking. 

 
Ric Flair said:
Uh...yeah they did.
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Landlord said:
So you also don't know how odds and percentages work.
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Of course I do. Everyone knows that if Clinton has a 70% chance of winning, that's no guarantee she'll win. After all, there is a 30% chance she'll lose. 

Similarly if 70% of voters prefer Clinton, there are still 30% who don't. 

But show me any mainstream news source who as late in the 2016 cycle as 5 p.m. on election night predicted a Trump victory. They were virtually guaranteeing a Clinton win and discounting even the possibility of a Trump win.

 
Ric Flair said:
Of course I do. Everyone knows that if Clinton has a 70% chance of winning, that's no guarantee she'll win. After all, there is a 30% chance she'll lose. 

Similarly if 70% of voters prefer Clinton, there are still 30% who don't. 

But show me any mainstream news source who as late in the 2016 cycle as 5 p.m. on election night predicted a Trump victory. They were virtually guaranteeing a Clinton win and discounting even the possibility of a Trump win.
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You really are working really hard at making your point true.

 
Ric and TheSker are right about this one. We're not really talking about statistical probability here. We're talking about Conventional Wisdom. And Conventional Wisdom has been notoriously wrong about Donald Trump. 

I take zero comfort that Trump's approval rating has dipped. It has always hovered around 40%. And I continue to be appalled it's that high. 

 
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