Been thinking about this matter quite a bit last night and this morning, and there is quite a bit to unpack.
Before touching on the veracity of the sexual assault allegations, there are two very troubling tings that stand out to me:
1. The horrible victim shaming and ignorance being displayed by Republicans and right-wing media and Trump-supporting social media users. The accuser has nothing to gain from this. Many, many victims do not tell their stories for years if at all. And these matters should be handled with a certain amount of tact and empathy, whether they are true or false, but it is being met with all the grace of a en enraged elephant. It has become very telling how so many people on the right view these sorts of situations, and it is ugly.
2. The combative way in which Kavanaugh answered questions, dodged some questions altogether, and presented flimsy evidence or non-sequiturs would not fly in most courtrooms. I've seen many county judges put a quick stop to that sort of behavior, and this guy is brazenly showing his a$$ in this way to try to get a seat on the fricking Supreme Court. If he was a rational, unbiased judge, he would not tolerate this sort of nonsense, less of all exhibit it himself. That alone shows he is unfit for the seat, without even analyzing the actual facts of the case or his judicial record.
Beyond these things, the fact that he was not willing to say yes or no as to whether there should be an actual investigation into the allegations is very troubling, and his blatantly partisan statements were very troubling. Even if the accusations are false, the way he presented himself was ridiculous. Not everyone would be able to maintain their composure in this kind of setting, but for someone on the brink of becoming one of the most powerful people in the country, for life, it is reasonable to expect a different temperament.
Most sexual misconduct cases amount to a he-said/she-said story, and absent other credible evidence, these cases often come down to credibility. Ford was very credible as an accuser, in terms of how and when her claims came to light, what she remembers, the psychological impact, and motive. Kavanaugh on the other hand inappropriately fired back at his questioners about their own drinking habits, refused to answer that a full investigation might be appropriate, and said quite a few things that are demonstrably false (such as being able to legally drink at the time), or at least things that a reasonable person would find untrue (i.e. his explanations about Devil's Triangle and boofing or whatever the hell). Kavanaugh did plenty to damage his own credibility. If I was investigating this as a neutral party, I would be looking for more evidence on both sides, but Ford comes across as far, far more credible than Kavanaugh.
Kavanaugh isn't being tried in criminal court here. The evidence does not need to be beyond a reasonable doubt. This is to determine his fitness for a SCOTUS seat, and I think a reasonable person will have seen quite enough to give the thumbs down. Unfortunately, the Senate is not full of reasonable people.
TLDR version: Kavanaugh is an a$$.