New Nebraska Recruiting Record

Nebfanatic said:
Read the article I just posted. Like 60% of 5 stars were drafted and only 2 % of the 3 star players were drafted. There is a bunch of other data too, like what N for Nowledge said. Only 1 team in the history of the playoff hasn't recruited a top 10 class leading up to their playoff run, and that team was Michigan State who got embarrassed. The recruiting experts are pretty good at their jobs.
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Considering some of the lopsided losses we've seen thus far in the college football playoffs, I'm not sure the bolded really needs to be mentioned.  I get this is a thread about recruiting, and I get that you're trying to prove a point.  However, was Michigan State's loss any more embarrassing than Ohio State's in 17'? 

I think if we're being honest with ourselves, our program is a lot more similar to Michigan State than it is to any other team that has made the playoffs.  We have a pretty good recruiting class coming in, yet it still isn't a top 10 class.  If we're going to draw that line in the sand, then it might just be best that we keep our hopes and dreams in check of simply winning our division. 

 
junior4949 said:
Considering some of the lopsided losses we've seen thus far in the college football playoffs, I'm not sure the bolded really needs to be mentioned.  I get this is a thread about recruiting, and I get that you're trying to prove a point.  However, was Michigan State's loss any more embarrassing than Ohio State's in 17'? 

I think if we're being honest with ourselves, our program is a lot more similar to Michigan State than it is to any other team that has made the playoffs.  We have a pretty good recruiting class coming in, yet it still isn't a top 10 class.  If we're going to draw that line in the sand, then it might just be best that we keep our hopes and dreams in check of simply winning our division. 
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That's fair, but we also recruit much better than MSU. We have a great class coming off of 4-8,4-8,5-7. If we can win some games a top 10 class is well within reach 

 
 I recall correctly all four teams in the playoff this year have finished recruiting rankings inside the top ten with 3 I believe inside the top 5.
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Correlation vs. causality?  Does Saban have a winning team  because he gets all of the starred recruits or do all of the starred recruits go to Saban because he is a winning coach and coaches his players to be winners?

 
This is another good article on the 4 and 5 star debate.  A few tidbits.

https://www.bannersociety.com/pages/blue-chip-ratio-2019

Blue chips are almost 1,000% more likely to be drafted in the first round. And five-stars are about 33 times as likely to be All-Americans as two-stars are. Sure, there are outliers on an individual player basis. But the overwhelming majority of three-star players are going pro in something other than sports.
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Put simply, teams who win the title have signed more four- and five-star recruits than two- and three-stars over their previous four signing classes.


This has been 100% true for essentially as far back as modern recruiting rankings have existed (depending on how you define “modern,” or roughly back to the classes that led to super-talented USC and Texas national champs of the mid-2000s).

Generally, teams whose signees have been fewer than 50% blue-chips over the previous four years can’t be considered national title contenders.
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Good data to go off of and essentially, if we can get to that 50% mark things are much more likely to happen championship wise for the team.

 
Here is some more info on stars and draft.  Granted it is from 2014, but still relevant.  From the link I quoted earlier.

For those who don't like percentages, here are some more intuitive breakdowns based on the numbers from the entire 2014 draft:

  • A five-star recruit had a three-in-five chance of getting drafted (16 of 27).
  • A four-star had a one-in-five chance (77 of 395).
  • A three-star had a one-in-18 chance (92 of 1,644).
  • A two-star/unrated recruit had a one-in-34 chance (71 of 2,434).
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grandpasknee said:
Miami folks are just sure that Nebraska is "dropping bags" to get these recruits.  Hmmmm.

When I was recruited in Nebraska I was offered a lot of things.  An $8000 signing bonus,  all expense paid trip to Europe.  Training in what ever field I chose.  Excellent physical fitness training  and highly directed personnel development programs.
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Uncle Luke is a bit upset at Manny Diaz.  I'm sure Coach Frost can put some Miami Bass in the playlist if they are feeling homesick.  

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84HuskerLaw said:
i hope NU does exhaustive searching on their own and doesn’t give much weight to “the experts” UNLESS the actually are proven right a high percentage of the time. 
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I'd venture to guess that NU uses recruiting services very little to evaluate talent. The offer list plays heavily into the rating that 247 and Rivals puts out. They rely on the coaches to find kids and then they supplement it.

For example, Mauga-Clements was not even rated in JUCO and then he commits to NU. The next day he is a 4* Rivals and high 3* 247 player. Coaches identified that, not "the experts".

Similar thing for Smothers this year. He shut down his recruitment in 2018 and stopped announcing offers so he was a 3* all year until his big senior season. If he doesn't shut his recruitment down so early my guess is he is even more highly rated than he is now.

 
WyoHusker56 said:
I'd venture to guess that NU uses recruiting services very little to evaluate talent. The offer list plays heavily into the rating that 247 and Rivals puts out. They rely on the coaches to find kids and then they supplement it.

For example, Mauga-Clements was not even rated in JUCO and then he commits to NU. The next day he is a 4* Rivals and high 3* 247 player. Coaches identified that, not "the experts".

Similar thing for Smothers this year. He shut down his recruitment in 2018 and stopped announcing offers so he was a 3* all year until his big senior season. If he doesn't shut his recruitment down so early my guess is he is even more highly rated than he is now.
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They don't rely on the scouting services, but they do a lot of the same work. I suspect Rivals/247 were already working on Mauga-Clements (and many other players), then expedited his review when he committed to a P5 program. It's not like the coaches are just skimming rivals looking for who else to offer, but the recruiting sites do their own work as well.

Offers do play a big factor for sure though, they're striving for accuracy so if you know Bama wants this kid badly you're probably going to give him a bump. I've noticed the state of Wisconsin has a lot more 4* lineman nowadays, and I'm pretty sure that has more to do with knowing they'll be developed well than better small school scouting from recruiting sites.

 
Stars...bah!  

The only "stars" that used to matter were how many you could make the other guy see when you smacked him in the head with a forearm.

we didn't even have star ratings.  Oh, sure...every team had their designated "star" player...the big stud who was going to run all over you...but that was more of a target than an honor.  22 guys piling on and cheap shotting you for two hours was your usual reward for being a "star".

i think that was how Nebraska used to get the great players in the recruiting battles.  Instead of looking for season opening, over-hyped players, they grabbed up the under-hyped survivors at the end of the year and developed them.  

Oh...and my dad said the Nebraska recruiting class this year was disappointing...and he's watched football for 70 years so he's an expert. 

 
Nebfanatic said:
That's fair, but we also recruit much better than MSU. We have a great class coming off of 4-8,4-8,5-7. If we can win some games a top 10 class is well within reach 
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For the most part, I agree.  Winning will more than likely provide a (as in one top 10 class).  If you look at the teams in the playoff this year, they have multiple top 10 classes in the last five years.  Two of the four teams have four out of their last five recruiting classes ranked in the top 10.  The other two of the four teams have three of their last five recruiting classes ranked in the top 10.  Do you honestly believe Nebraska will ever be able to consistently have between 60 and 80 percent of their recruiting classes ranked in the top 10?  If you do, then this is where we will disagree because I don't see us being able to recruit like that year in and year out.     

 
junior4949 said:
For the most part, I agree.  Winning will more than likely provide a (as in one top 10 class).  If you look at the teams in the playoff this year, they have multiple top 10 classes in the last five years.  Two of the four teams have four out of their last five recruiting classes ranked in the top 10.  The other two of the four teams have three of their last five recruiting classes ranked in the top 10.  Do you honestly believe Nebraska will ever be able to consistently have between 60 and 80 percent of their recruiting classes ranked in the top 10?  If you do, then this is where we will disagree because I don't see us being able to recruit like that year in and year out.     
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I think in any given 5 year period if we are winning at a high level we can recruit top 15 nearly every year with the occasional break into top 10. We will likely never recruit a top 3 class though I wouldn't rule out 5th or so but obviously I think it would be once every recruiting cycle or so with the other years being between 12-15 regularly. If we can recruit like that we can certainly win the BIG and winning the BIG means a potential playoff birth.

 
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