How messed up is this class going to be?

Toe

Toe

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The Class of COVID-19. It's no secret that a lack of camps and opportunities for evaluation has led to a lot of uncertainty about this year's class of recruits, both from coaches and from recruiting sites. It's probably going to lead to a higher number of busts in this year's class, with guys who looked OK on film not faring so well in-person. And guys who could have been solid P5 players with more eyes on them might end up falling to G5, FCS, or JUCO. But potentially, there could also be more unheralded, under-the-radar types who turn out to be great.

So how bad is it going to be? Is it even worth paying attention to ratings and rankings this year? Frost has already said we're taking a smaller class this year, which will impact our recruiting ranking (if not our average player rating). How far should that go? Should we take as few as possible due to uncertainty, focusing on safe bets and positions where we just need bodies & depth? If we finish ranked around let's say #40 or so and #10 in B1G (as we are at the moment), are you OK with that?

 
The class has some good pieces already, but it all comes to a head on the field this season (whenever it happens). NU either puts up wins and recruiting ticks up, or we go 5-7 again and it doesn't matter because any momentum we had with Frost is gone. 3 losing seasons and it will be extremely hard to sell anyone on the trajectory of this program.  The recruits that are already here are going to determine the future as we are at a crossroads.

If we went 8-4 and still finished #30/8th in B1G I would be fine with that in a small class.

 
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Toe said:
The Class of COVID-19. It's no secret that a lack of camps and opportunities for evaluation has led to a lot of uncertainty about this year's class of recruits, both from coaches and from recruiting sites. It's probably going to lead to a higher number of busts in this year's class, with guys who looked OK on film not faring so well in-person. And guys who could have been solid P5 players with more eyes on them might end up falling to G5, FCS, or JUCO. But potentially, there could also be more unheralded, under-the-radar types who turn out to be great.

So how bad is it going to be? Is it even worth paying attention to ratings and rankings this year? Frost has already said we're taking a smaller class this year, which will impact our recruiting ranking (if not our average player rating). How far should that go? Should we take as few as possible due to uncertainty, focusing on safe bets and positions where we just need bodies & depth? If we finish ranked around let's say #40 or so and #10 in B1G (as we are at the moment), are you OK with that?
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The coaches typically can go to camps and see recruits but the ratings are mostly for fans. I would think that coaches mostly evaluate off of film and games. So, I think the coaching evaluations aren’t going to be as far as the ratings could be. 
 

So, I think it’s just a class where a coach will offer and go after a kid that might not look great the fans don’t see the ratings to get them excited. 
 

so, it’s probably more of a class where the fans don’t feel they know what the team has till we see them on the field. 
 

recruiting class rankings probably will be strange too. 

 
Most of the players we end up with in this class have been studied and evaluated and communicated with for a longer time than in years one and two presumably.  As such, I would tend to believe the coaches know more about the players than the players know about the school itself.  Probably more risk that recruits will be disappointed than the coaches.  It will be even more important than ever that the people involved in academic support and school acclimation etc do a great job in that area.  

Simply put, I think they get good players that fit their needs athletically but will they be good fits academically as students.  So transfer outs will be a concern.  

Just my guess but ??

 
The rankings/ratings are going to be messed up most likely compared to other years.

I think the only way it really impacts coaches decisions/internal rankings is if high school seasons don't happen and kids who mature late can't show off how they are coming on. That's probably where kids end up at lower levels than they would have otherwise. It'll mostly hurt those kids as the ones who have already been evaluated are known.

 
We offer 400 kids each year  ... so I don't know how much "evaluation" goes into all of those 400 offers.  It's kinda crazy to me and dilutes the value of the offer.  Still, within all those offers it seems to come down to "connection" and "relationship" [which is another reason why I don't get the 400 offers].  

So, I'm with the view that our recruiters work hard to connect with who they like and believe [in the end] they can get [worth the effort].  To me, it's the recruit that can get "messed up" by how Covid is changing their evaluation.  The school has to commit to four years to the prospect in the offer ... the recruit has all sorts of "outs" [and that will probably increase under Covid].

One thing that could "mess us up" that I haven't seen discussed is if the season gets delayed.  What I'd we only play the last 8 games?  What if we go 2-6 or 3-5 with a losing season?  What perception is created and is the "Frost effect" totally gone and how does that effect recruiting going forward?

 
BigRedN said:
One thing that could "mess us up" that I haven't seen discussed is if the season gets delayed.  What I'd we only play the last 8 games?  What if we go 2-6 or 3-5 with a losing season?  What perception is created and is the "Frost effect" totally gone and how does that effect recruiting going forward?
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Definitely agree. The win total this year is more important than the last two, and if only conference games are played that could be a problem unless the team can have a winning record still. I suspect the Frost effect would be gone and unfortunately that mojo is needed to recruit to Lincoln.  Recruiting would slide backwards in that scenario, and at a time where the rest of the division is stepping up, would create a bleaker outlook for the future.

 
BigRedN said:
We offer 400 kids each year  ... so I don't know how much "evaluation" goes into all of those 400 offers.  It's kinda crazy to me and dilutes the value of the offer.  Still, within all those offers it seems to come down to "connection" and "relationship" [which is another reason why I don't get the 400 offers].  

So, I'm with the view that our recruiters work hard to connect with who they like and believe [in the end] they can get [worth the effort].  To me, it's the recruit that can get "messed up" by how Covid is changing their evaluation.  The school has to commit to four years to the prospect in the offer ... the recruit has all sorts of "outs" [and that will probably increase under Covid].

One thing that could "mess us up" that I haven't seen discussed is if the season gets delayed.  What I'd we only play the last 8 games?  What if we go 2-6 or 3-5 with a losing season?  What perception is created and is the "Frost effect" totally gone and how does that effect recruiting going forward?
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The reason we offer 400 kids is to “build the brand” aka get the kids talking about N even if they are not “real” offers. Let’s be real..nobody outside of the Midwest that is 17/18 knows anything about Nebraska anymore. It’s a PR strategy. 

 
NU continues to recruit higher quality kids each year - this talk about the frost effect declining is silly. Each year just means he has had one more year to build the Nebraska relationship with these kids. Now there may be a few misses this year with kids that don't get the full NU recruiting experience and opt to stay closer to home.  BUT there has not been any decline in quality kids showing Interest in frost.

 
Decked said:
The reason we offer 400 kids is to “build the brand” aka get the kids talking about N even if they are not “real” offers. Let’s be real..nobody outside of the Midwest that is 17/18 knows anything about Nebraska anymore. It’s a PR strategy. 
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Sure, I get your thought ... I don't know if I've ever read anything from Frost or staff that suggests that ... if so, that would be a good link and read I'm sure.  

Some humor for a second ... the folks in High School that took this route to "build the brand" became known as "sluts".  :-)

I genuinely hope that it isn't a "PR strategy".  I think the history of our program shows it wasn't built in this way.  I'm more of a "meat and potatoes" type of guy and certainly hope we don't have to resort to pinning our program on this type of PR strategy.  It would be far better to put "meat and potatoes" on the table and truly feed the program with real character

 
BigRedN said:
Sure, I get your thought ... I don't know if I've ever read anything from Frost or staff that suggests that ... if so, that would be a good link and read I'm sure.  

Some humor for a second ... the folks in High School that took this route to "build the brand" became known as "sluts".  :-)

I genuinely hope that it isn't a "PR strategy".  I think the history of our program shows it wasn't built in this way.  I'm more of a "meat and potatoes" type of guy and certainly hope we don't have to resort to pinning our program on this type of PR strategy.  It would be far better to put "meat and potatoes" on the table and truly feed the program with real character
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As I kind of suggested above, I suspect Frost & Co are getting on kids as sophs / juniors early enough now to know more about them.  They make contacts with a big number of players and try as best they can to get conversation going.  I dont have any inside info of course but watching recruiting for two+ years, its my sense of their approach.  At first I, too, was unsure about the 400-500 “offers” reported.  Whether real formal offers or more like invitations to come and get one, I dont think they’re sending them out blindly or just following the crowd much.  Maybe had to in first couple classes some for lack of time.  I doubt much of that now. 

 
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BigRedN said:
Some humor for a second ... the folks in High School that took this route to "build the brand" became known as "sluts".  :-)
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