Will There Be a 2020 Football Season?

[Undone]

Vaccines don't work if the same people who are stupid enough not to wear a mask don't get a shot.

This is truly scientifically false. Read what I posted above about the CDC's data on flu vaccine efficacy rates.

Your statement is unequivocally false. Part of the reason for this is "shedding," the process by which someone who has been recently vaccinated becomes contagious and spreads the flu to others.

When you combine that with the fact that the vaccine has no more than a 50% efficacy rate, what this means is that you can't entirely eradicate the flu via vaccines. You can greatly limit it, but you can't eliminate it. This is due to strain mutation and then the challenge of vaccinating for all strains.

You can still reach herd immunity, though. But I think people don't even understand what the definition of herd immunity is. It doesn't mean that once you reach it that the illness is eradicated. It just means that there's sufficient immunity such that the herd can't be killed off - made extinct - and that a drastically smaller amount of infections occur.

I've seen so many people on social media using the phrase as if the definition means "the illness is eradicated."

 

[Atbone95]

This is truly scientifically false. Read what I posted above about the CDC's data on flu vaccine efficacy rates.

Your statement is unequivocally false. Part of the reason for this is "shedding," the process by which someone who has been recently vaccinated becomes contagious and spreads the flu to others.

When you combine that with the fact that the vaccine has no more than 50% efficacy rate, what this means is that you can't entirely eradicate the flu via vaccines. You can greatly limit it, but you can't eliminate it. This is due to strain mutation and then the challenge of vaccinating for all strains.

You're going a step past me, dude. I understand your point on efficacy.  There is no efficacy if people don't receive a vaccine. 

 

[Undone]

You're going a step past me, dude. I understand your point on efficacy.  There is no efficacy if people don't receive a vaccine. 

That's a fair point, yeah. I did go a step past your point.

 

[JJ Husker]

No, but I appreciate the straw man. 

I said masks are important. I said COVID is serious. I don't understand where we took a fork in the road as a society and became terrified of illness. 

Serious question. Who exactly is terrified of illness?
 

I’m not (and I’m older and have a compromised immune system). Nobody I know is terrified. However, I do know a lot of people who take this pandemic for what it is and they wear masks, wash their hands regularly and attempt to limit their possible exposure. That isn’t being terrified. That’s just plain being smart.

Im sure there probably are some elderly, extremely high risk folks who are terrified because they sit at home and watch the news 247, thinking the world is coming to an end. But I probably wouldn’t blame that on social media but rather cable and network news propensity to ride the latest emergency into the dirt. Usually we have another “emergency” come along and displace the last one, but currently they are hard pressed to outdo the Covid story so it’s going to stick around for awhile.

 

[Branno]

Why do New York and New Jersey have death rates 7-8 times higher than Florida, but both states have younger populations? 

1. I’m a software engineer not an epidemiologist. 
2. We have no idea how bad Florida is going to get and the comparison isn’t exactly apples to apples. 

 

[Branno]

I could assume the same (hopefully wrongly) in the other direction, of a desire to push doom and gloom for the sake of doing so. Just the way the world works right now. 

I never pushed a declining death rate. I came to say that medical experts, much more qualified than anyone posting here, acknowledge we're diagnosing a small fraction of actual cases at this point and we're mass infecting because people won't wear a mask. Wear a mask. 

We're playing football in parts of this country this fall. I hope some of the posters here are going to be able to live with the horror of that happening in their country (/s). 

Dude. I’d love nothing more than to be wrong. I seriously hope that the case, but that just doesn’t appear to be in the cards. 
 

Why? Because many, including yourself, don’t take this seriously enough. Whether it’s because of your political party or because you’re in an area that hasn’t been affected you just can’t seem to see reality.

Im not pushing doom and gloom, I have nothing to benefit from it. I’m calling a spade a spade. Things are getting worse, with no expectation of getting better any time soon. 
 

I mean... For Christ’s sake we’re starting to see hospitals exceed capacity again but somehow y’all think everything is fine. 

 

[kansas45]

Im not pushing doom and gloom, I have nothing to benefit from it. I’m calling a spade a spade. Things are getting worse, with no expectation of getting better any time soon

This is reality right here with this n=1 case. 

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/29461075/florida-ad-scott-stricklin-tested-positive-virus-recovered

"I thought I was being careful but obviously this is a highly transmittable disease," Stricklin said, adding he was initially mad that he put himself in that situation. "It speaks to the importance of all us doing our part with masking and physical distancing. It's really important. Hopefully, we can help keep others safe during this process by doing our part."

As of this weekend, 238 tests had been done on athletes across all sports, with 29 positive test results. When athletes initially returned to campus, Florida did 188 tests with three positive results. The 26 positives came from 50 additional tests conducted after athletes showed symptoms or there was suspicion to test.

And here be another clue as to what may transpire. https://247sports.com/college/florida/Article/SEC-delays-Volleyball-Soccer-and-Cross-Country-seasons-Florida-Gators-149155227/

The Southeastern Conference has pushed back the allowed start to the seasons for three different fall sports. Volleyball, Soccer, and Cross Country will have to wait until after August 31 in order to compete according to the new mandate I order to prepare for the safe return of competition on an adjusted timeline.

They are holding on to the bitter last moment.

 

[Atbone95]

Dude. I’d love nothing more than to be wrong. I seriously hope that the case, but that just doesn’t appear to be in the cards. 
 

Why? Because many, including yourself, don’t take this seriously enough. Whether it’s because of your political party or because you’re in an area that hasn’t been affected you just can’t seem to see reality.

Im not pushing doom and gloom, I have nothing to benefit from it. I’m calling a spade a spade. Things are getting worse, with no expectation of getting better any time soon. 
 

I mean... For Christ’s sake we’re starting to see hospitals exceed capacity again but somehow y’all think everything is fine. 

I’m here saying wear a mask! Haha. I limit going places, consolidate my grocery runs, keep the social circle small. 
 

I’m not here to argue COVID. I think I have two main points: 

1. What constitutes worse? Deaths? If it is deaths, deaths are not getting worse. You have an educated opinion that they might in the future, but they have declined for a long time before being relatively flat now. 
2. Re: the thread title. Regardless of how we feel about it, who takes it seriously or not, there will be football is this country in the next 30 days. HS games start Aug. 14 in many states and they will be played in some, but not all. Colleges will figure out a way to do it too.

 

[southernoregonhusker]

Yeah, for most part that is what it is.  I know for some people it is about politics but that is a small %...just like usual.  The crazies make up a small % of things like this.  Like the rioters were a small % of the protesters but of course they got the most coverage.

Then you have the people that think it is all about politics when it clearly is not.  Hell we hardly get 50% of the voting population to even go vote yet all of a sudden everyone thinks it is a political issue.

Like you said...it is a "I don't wanna" issue for most.  

I don't know one single person that is not wearing a mask because of politics. In fact I know a few people with the "Well, if I get it...it was god's plan" attitude.  But no one that is making a political statement.

I have a few friends who have made it a political issue.  They've told me Dr. Fauci is a liberal and they won't listen to him.  None of them went to college and they work in the timber industry.  I'm not judging, but I know how the timber workers around here think.  

 

[WyoHusker56]

I have a few friends who have made it a political issue.  They've told me Dr. Fauci is a liberal and they won't listen to him.  None of them went to college and they work in the timber industry.  I'm not judging, but I know how the timber workers around here think.  

Try to get them to check out Gottlieb. He's a republican and was under Trump's admin. He says basically the same stuff but his political leanings may help. 

 

[Cdog923]

Apparently not.  But it appears that it does work.   :dunno

https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/herd-immunity-and-covid-19-what-you-need-to-know/

Fauci is probably talking about herd immunity achieved with a vaccine, as pointed out in this article from the Mayo Clinic. 

Herd Immunity due to infected people building antibodies isn't a thing thus far. 

 

[Branno]

1. What constitutes worse? Deaths? If it is deaths, deaths are not getting worse. You have an educated opinion that they might in the future, but they have declined for a long time before being relatively flat now. 

This is why it’s hard to take what you write seriously. You use a truth, that deaths declined (due to stay at home orders) and follow it up with a false statement. 
 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/07/10/coronavirus-live-updates-us/

Deaths starting rising a week ago. In some areas, like Texas where I live, we’re seeing new record infection rates and deaths daily. 

This isn’t an opinion, it’s fact. What is not a fact, unlike your claim, is that we’ll have football.
 

We might have high school football in some areas but I would be shocked if there is a CFB season. 

 

[Archy1221]

This is why it’s hard to take what you write seriously. You use a truth, that deaths declined (due to stay at home orders) and follow it up with a false statement. 
 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/07/10/coronavirus-live-updates-us/

Deaths starting rising a week ago. In some areas, like Texas where I live, we’re seeing new record infection rates and deaths daily. 

This isn’t an opinion, it’s fact. What is not a fact, unlike your claim, is that we’ll have football.
 

We might have high school football in some areas but I would be shocked if there is a CFB season. 

One problem we have when looking at COVID-19 is that too many people look at the national numbers.  How many total deaths, infections, hospitalizations, etc...those don’t mean much in places where things are relatively under control(flat, slightly rising, slightly falling). 
 

even looking at this from a state level is misleading because density matters And most states have unique areas.  Look at it from a county perspective.  You take Texas like you cited and most infections are coming from a handful of counties.  

 

[Rochelobe]

Others have already mentioned that the deaths lag the cases by several weeks. There is an uptick in the daily death rate over the past week that suggests the death rate is going back up. Note that the data in this image is a few days old and I don't see a more current image I can paste here, but you can check the updated data at this site: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Looking at the worldometer site for daily new cases supports your point - the uptick in positive cases dates from early/mid June, right around 4 weeks ago.  Some of the people that have died have died quickly - I've read a few stories where someone started feeling bad and within a few days they were gone.  However, I've seen more stories of people that had a slow decline that pushed them to the hospital, then spent weeks on a ventilator before dying - which is more aligned with the 4 weeks from exposure to death scenario. As far as the sudden declines go, it could be they were exposed and pre-symptomatic/mild for 2 weeks or more prior to their quick decline.



The next 3 weeks could be really bad (as in peak in New York/Italy bad).  Some things that might mitigate that -

(1) average age of those hospitalized is going down, and maybe younger people that get really sick will have a high probability of recovering

(2) as the pandemic has progressed there are signs that doctors are finding ways to mitigate the effects of the virus in some patients, improving their chance for recovery.

(3) the virus may have mutated into a less lethal form (even as it seems it may have mutated into a more communicable form)

I don't think we have enough evidence to be definitive on any of these possibilities, so I think it is reasonable to say we are still in a very high risk environment, until we see if any of the things listed above are actually happening.

The timeline for determining any of these factors does not match up well with the planned start of the football season. 

 

[Rochelobe]

One problem we have when looking at COVID-19 is that too many people look at the national numbers.  How many total deaths, infections, hospitalizations, etc...those don’t mean much in places where things are relatively under control(flat, slightly rising, slightly falling). 
 

even looking at this from a state level is misleading because density matters And most states have unique areas.  Look at it from a county perspective.  You take Texas like you cited and most infections are coming from a handful of counties.  

Yes, I think there is evidence that the risk is lower in lower population density areas.  That is probably not a surprising result.

However, what does seem to be indicated, no matter where we are is that large numbers of people, gathered in close proximity, seems to greatly increase the spread.  This is the situation in bars.  There have been several cases of bars/restaurants being responsible for hot spots.  At this time there doesn't seem to be a large indication that the protests have been as bad - even though those are also high density events.

To me the main difference is (1) the majority of protestors are wearing masks while those in bars/restaurants are not and (2) the protests are outside while the documented bar/restaurant hot spots have taken place indoors.

So which matters more?  Probably being indoors with non-filtered recirculated air.  But, I'm not sure we can completely discount the impact masks have had on reducing spread during the protests.  It could be simply that the outdoor environment with UV+wind disperses things better, but it might also be the combination of masks reducing the amount of aerosols. 

So where would football be in this scenario?  I could see arguing both ways - football is close proximity thus dangerous or football is (primarily) outdoors and thus lower risk.  I've seen the face shield plans and I'm not sure how effective those would be vs masks at reducing aerosol propagation during an athletic event.  I think we end up with no football primarily because we won't have enough evidence in a month or so to show that risk is much lower than indoor dining.  I hope I am wrong and we can have football this fall, I'm just not very optimistic.