***** Official Election Game Day Thread *****

Moiraine said:
So why do you think it is still in play? Most still have it for Biden. He is down but they count early votes last and they know the make up of the counties that have reported. They've also all stated they are going to be way more conservative in calling states this time.
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CNN has been showing the votes counted, but giving big caveats on the leads by both Trump and Biden. This is going to go down to the wire. 

 
ColoradoHusk said:
CNN has been showing the votes counted, but giving big caveats on the leads by both Trump and Biden. This is going to go down to the wire. 
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I don't look at vote margins at all I look at probabilities and county distributions people are talking about, also early vs. election day votes. They called Virginia for a reason. They basing their correctness on the margin right now doesn't make sense. That said it's still possible they called it wrong.

 
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Mavric said:
Numbers I see are 53-45 Trump with 51% reporting
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But, as I said to someone earlier talking about Biden being up in NC, that doesn't matter without having the context of what counties the votes are coming from. For example there was an 85% chance that Trump wins North Carolina when Biden was leading.

 
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Moiraine said:
But, as I said to someone earlier talking about Biden being up in NC, that doesn't matter without having the context of what counties the votes are coming from. For example there was an 85% chance that Trump wins North Carolina when Biden was leading.
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Yeah, it definitely depends on which ones are reporting.  I don't have a good reference on that.  I just think that's probably why some are saying it's back in play - a decent Trump lead with over half the vote in.  

 
FiveThirtyEight is showing that 274k mail votes in PA won’t be counted until tomorrow, with many of those being Biden votes.  If it comes down to PA, it could get ugly. 

 
Mavric said:
Yeah, it definitely depends on which ones are reporting.  I don't have a good reference on that.  I just think that's probably why some are saying it's back in play - a decent Trump lead with over half the vote in.  
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Gotcha. That's why I asked teach where he heard it. It sounds like the reasoning is Trump is ahead and that's not really good enough.

Nice think about Trump winning Virginia is I could go to bed early.

ColoradoHusk said:
FiveThirtyEight is showing that 274k mail votes in PA won’t be counted until tomorrow, with many of those being Biden votes.  If it comes down to PA, it could get ugly. 
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Which... it shouldn't get ugly. Those votes should be counted. It should just take a few days longer.

 
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Moiraine said:
Gotcha. That's why I asked teach where he heard it. It sounds like the reasoning is Trump is ahead and that's not really good enough.

Nice think about Trump winning Virginia is I could go to bed early.

Which... it shouldn't get ugly. Those votes should be counted. It should just take a few days longer.
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I agree that every vote should be counted. 

 
Moiraine said:
Gotcha. That's why I asked teach where he heard it. It sounds like the reasoning is Trump is ahead and that's not really good enough.

Nice think about Trump winning Virginia is I could go to bed early.
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As close as I can tell, I don't see any Virginia counties that have switched from what they were in 2016.  And a couple heavy Clinton counties haven't reported yet.  

Clinton won by some 212,000 votes (out of 3.7M)

 
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