***** Official Election Game Day Thread *****

Trump's PA lead down to 5.3% with 84% reported. There are still votes in Republican areas but I think they will shift the % toward Biden too. E.g. look at Monroe - it seems unlikely there would be a 25.8 point shift toward the Republican. This is likely due to early ballots not being counted yet and them skewing Democrat. The others have huge shifts too. 24 points, 20 points, 21 points, 23 points. I find it very unlikely things shifted that much. Then with Philadelphia you will see it move to a bigger Biden lead.

 





County


Margin


2016 margin


Est. votes reported


Total votes


Absentee






Monroe


Trump +25


D+0.8


59%




 




47,956


—




Cumberland


Trump +42


R+17.8


63%




 




88,282


—




Montour


Trump +48


R+28.4


65%




 




6,496


—




Butler


Trump +58


R+36.6


69%




 




78,070


—




Mercer


Trump +47


R+24.2


69%




 




41,735


—




Philadelphia


Biden +60


D+67


70%




 




576,716


75,220




 
Last edited by a moderator:
ColoradoHusk said:
My math shows about 1.1M votes outstanding.  Biden will need to carry 65% of the remaining votes to overcome Trump.  Very do-able with recent trends of the past 4-5% reporting.
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Ya, I added more to my post. Even the Republican counties reporting will cut into Trump's lead unless there was an enormous shift to Trump in those counties from 2016.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Moiraine said:
Ya, I added more to my post. Even the Republican counties reporting will cut into Trump's lead unless there was an enormous shift to Trump in those counties from 2016.
Click to expand...


And so far, there hasn't been. It's been at 2016 levels, save for some low population counties getting extra people out. 

 
ColoradoHusk said:
If Biden gets Pennsylvania or the combo of Nevada & Arizona, he's at 270+.
Click to expand...


Biden is currently at 253 if you include Michigan but exclude Arizona. 

Biden needs to just win Pennsylvania or win two of the following to get to 270:

  • Georgia (16) 
  • Nevada (6) (Currently Leading)
  • Arizona (11) (Currently Leading)
  • North Carolina (15)


 
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There goes Guiliani, should put Borat in the audience. Apparently they think there is fraud in Philly and its a shame that its in the city that's the birthplace of our democracy. Lawsuit pending.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
VectorVictor said:
Biden is currently at 253 if you include Michigan but exclude Arizona. 

Biden needs to win two of the following to get to 270:

  • Georgia (16)
  • Nevada (6) (Currently Leading)
  • Arizona (11) (Currently Leading)
  • Pennsylvania (20)
  • North Carolina (15)
Click to expand...
He would just need Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes to get to 270.  That one state/commonwealth would push Biden over the top.

 
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