Tangent Thread - P&R Edition

Hmm... I guess I see what you're saying, but I'm still not sure I fully agree with it. We seem to agree on Trump's COVID failures, but personally, I think Biden could've won without it and that's primarily based on what I've seen from exit polling and anecdotal conversations with friends/family that voted for Biden. COVID certainly mattered, but voters were more critical of Trump's personality and personal/policy failings than anything else.

I absolutely agree on Trump's overall campaign failures, too. You can't run the same campaign two terms in a row. It never works and it bit Trump.


Biden distancing himself from the public because of Covid helped his image immensely.  Partly because pandemic, partly because he's not great in public to begin with.

He couldn't even run the same campaign, it felt beyond half assed.

 
The wearing of masks, yes.


Trump downplayed it because he didn't want to shut down the country because doing so would kill the fallacy of his precious economy.  That's really the gist of it.  Trump didn't take it seriously enough in most instances and it ended up costing him the election.  If that's politicizing masks, he did a s#!tty job of it.

The Left on the other hand politicized masks much more efficiently.

 
Trump downplayed it because he didn't want to shut down the country because doing so would kill the fallacy of his precious economy.  That's really the gist of it.  Trump didn't take it seriously enough in most instances and it ended up costing him the election.  If that's politicizing masks, he did a s#!tty job of it.

The Left on the other hand politicized masks much more efficiently.
Eh?

He downplays mask because that's what he did in the beginning when he heard some positive news early on, and ran with it. Then when it became obvious that we were in for a rough ride he couldn't change his mind because he's not capable of admitting he is wrong. He also views mask wearing as a weakness.

Trump on Biden during the Debate:

 “Every time you see him, he’s got a mask. He could be speaking 200 feet away from them, and he shows up with the biggest mask I’ve ever seen.”

The "left" has said to follow the science. How is that politicizing? Calling Trump out on his failures is a normal thing to do. Joe wasn't in his basement. He was at home, just like Trump was from March to June. 

 
Joe wasn't in his basement. He was at home, just like Trump was from March to June. 


Was that when trump fled to his bunker? Before he had a wall built around the White House?

Weird how no other president has needed a literal wall built around the White House. 

 
But my point is without Covid, I don't think Biden stood a chance.  It took a pandemic where Trump was completely unprepared and fear mongering (some justified some not) from the left to swing this in their favor.  And it worked obviously.  That and Trump ran an awful campaign this time around.  Without a pandemic Biden can't beat Trump.  Could be wrong but I just don't see it.  Trump also bumbled Healthcare to the point where Biden could have promised anything and people would've gotten on board.


I know progressives who agree with you, but I don't think anything is obvious. 

A year ago, before coronavirus and before any primary, every one of the top Democratic candidates was at least tied with Trump, and BIden and Sanders both had double-digit leads. So Biden and every other candidate more than stood a chance -- the anti-Trump sentiment basically gave a Dem 50% before they even opened their mouths.

You could accuse Dems of fear-mongering, I guess, but the cascade of deaths in the U.S. and worldwide in March and April made a convincing case about coronavirus. When the first wave abated and the U.S. continued to be the worst country in the world at controlling the spread, yeah, it probably hurt Trump. This wasn't a hoax and he was generally making a fool of himself at every press conference.

Whatever advantage COVID gave Biden, it more than evaporated in the Black Lives Matter protests. And talk about fear-mongering. Democrats were going to encourage violence in the streets, and the GOP and Fox played the racist hand perfectly. COVID took a back seat all summer. And whoever you might accuse of politicizing masks, Redux, only one side was wrong and they f#&%ed things up for everybody. 

I think by October COVID might actually have been working against Biden. People wanted to get back to normal and Trump was promising to do that -- without any real evidence. A lot of pundits and pollsters think Biden screwed up in the last debate when he promised America a long dark winter. 

So yeah, a lot of stuff was in play but more Americans wanted Joe Biden to be their President. Truth is, Donald Trump actually ran a good campaign -- given who he was and how he got there. He somehow got millions more Americans to vote for him than he did in 2016. This will never stop appalling me. 

 
I know progressives who agree with you, but I don't think anything is obvious. 

A year ago, before coronavirus and before any primary, every one of the top Democratic candidates was at least tied with Trump, and BIden and Sanders both had double-digit leads. So Biden and every other candidate more than stood a chance -- the anti-Trump sentiment basically gave a Dem 50% before they even opened their mouths.

You could accuse Dems of fear-mongering, I guess, but the cascade of deaths in the U.S. and worldwide in March and April made a convincing case about coronavirus. When the first wave abated and the U.S. continued to be the worst country in the world at controlling the spread, yeah, it probably hurt Trump. This wasn't a hoax and he was generally making a fool of himself at every press conference.

Whatever advantage COVID gave Biden, it more than evaporated in the Black Lives Matter protests. And talk about fear-mongering. Democrats were going to encourage violence in the streets, and the GOP and Fox played the racist hand perfectly. COVID took a back seat all summer. And whoever you might accuse of politicizing masks, Redux, only one side was wrong and they f#&%ed things up for everybody. 

I think by October COVID might actually have been working against Biden. People wanted to get back to normal and Trump was promising to do that -- without any real evidence. A lot of pundits and pollsters think Biden screwed up in the last debate when he promised America a long dark winter. 

So yeah, a lot of stuff was in play but more Americans wanted Joe Biden to be their President. Truth is, Donald Trump actually ran a good campaign -- given who he was and how he got there. He somehow got millions more Americans to vote for him than he did in 2016. This will never stop appalling me. 


He'll be back in 2024, if I had to guess (if he's in good health).

 
I don't put a lot of stock into polls.  They are easily manipulated to achieve a result you desire that can then be used as more efficient manipulation tool.  People will roll their eyes at it, but it's true.  And if every one of the clown car Dems had the same numbers, it kinda proves the same truth that happens evey 2nd term of a Republican president, those weren't pro _____ numbers they were anti Trump numbers.  So they don't mean much to me.  If people are just voting against regardless of whom it ends up being, why should I care?  Their reasons are apparent.

We can downplay Dems fear mongering if you want, but it was done to such a degree we had record voter turnout to vote against someone.  So it kinda shows how effective they were at it.  Trump generally bumbles through every speech he gives.  When fear is at a high, that bumbling got worse.  Without Covid he would've bragged about tbe economy all year and it would've worked.  Hell he may actually have had time to finally make a healthcare plan!  Would've been trash, but a plan would've helped get votes.

I see the BLM protests WAAAAAAAY different than you in this regard.  The justifications by the media influenced how many to take part in not just the peaceful protests but also the riots.  The people that rioted also went out and voted, I think we know who got those votes.  The idea that Trump is somehow to blame for police brutality got spun, more effective fear mongering on top of a pandemic.  Actually pretty brilliant by the media in retrospect.  The hypocrisy made the Conservatives scoff all summer and wave Trump flags and they fell into a false sense of security.  I don't the Fox or the GOP played anything perfect, kinda evidenced by the outcome.

October didn't hurt Biden at all.  While Trump was talking about reopening, the media/celebrities/DNC were all in high gear that we needed to go further into the cave and that basically we would all be screwed if we reopened anything.  It just created more divide, likely added to the vote totals as well.  Biden did awful in the last debate and it didn't matter, those were never swaying anyone anyways.

America didn't want Joe Biden.  A large majority just didn't want Trump.  I'm not excited about Biden.  I know plenty of people who voted for him who admit they aren't and we're not excited about him.  I wish we knew the actual ratio of people ACTUALLY voting FOR Biden VS Never Trumpers.

Trumps campaign was a shell of his 2016 run.  He was an unknown before, going up against one of the least likable politicians possible coming off 8yrs of a Democrat in office.  It was the perfect storm.  After 4yrs, people knew what they were getting.  He was throwing hail mary promises most of 2020 because he knew how poorly Covid would treat his chances to retain.  He promised a vaccine, a bunch, and it never even remotely felt sincere.  Down the stretch I expected a much stronger push from him, it was pretty civil and quiet.  He got more to vote for him because like it or not, Joe Biden is incredibly unlikable.  He's a career politician, he's creepy, there are skeletons falling out of the closet etc.  And still people chose him over Trump because #AnyoneButTrump.  I've never liked that approach to voting but it is what it is.

I appreciate the take @Guy Chamberlin, definitely a different perspective.

 
He'll be back in 2024, if I had to guess (if he's in good health).
I wonder if I'm being too much of an optimist to question whether or not he'll receive enough support to be the Republican nominee. Will GOP officials want to commit to someone that is only guaranteed four years in office? Will enough voters still be invested in him? Will there be confidence that he could bring back the swing voters he lost in the 2020 election? All of those feel like a 'soft no' right now.

 
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He'll be 78 years old in four years. With his health issues, I don't think he'll be a viable candidate.

I feel like neither trump nor Biden were likely to survive the next four years. These are very old men.

 
I wonder if I'm being too much of an optimist to question whether or not he'll receive enough support to be the Republican nominee. Will GOP officials want to commit to someone that is only guaranteed four years in office? Will enough voters still be invested in him? Will there be confidence that he could bring back the swing voters he lost in the 2020 election? All of those feel like a 'soft no' right now.


It will be Ted Cruz vs Kamala Harris in 2024

 
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