Covid-19 Vaccinations.

RedDenver said:
Again, here is the post I was responding to:

From the article I previously linked:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/04/13/986411423/a-mystery-under-study-how-why-and-when-covid-vaccines-arent-fully-protective

If you want to pretend that's statistically zero or whatever, then that's on you. I'm showing you that it's not. As I've already said, it's really good for a vaccine but it's not 100%.
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The clinical trials were essentially 100%, which is the actual data we have in hand. The breakthrough cases, particularly ones resulting in severe disease and death, aren’t tracked the way the subjects in a trial are, so it’s possible there are other factors to consider.  Your source indicated ‘at least 94%’, which I interpret to mean if every single instance of severe disease being reported after vaccination is considered the result of vaccine breakthrough...which I would think is unlikely. 
 

To recap, the statement was made that J&J vaccine was clearly inferior to the other 2, and several of us pointed out that in clinical data for preventing hospitalization/death, they were all pretty similar.  

You’ve pointed out that there is information that would lead us to believe that people may still be dying after being vaccinated, so therefore not 100%, no money-back guarantee.  Agreed.  Kudos. 
 

moving on...

 
Moiraine said:
Anyhow, that's not where the 7% came from. It said out of those vaccinated who got Covid (5,800), 7% were hospitalized.
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Yes it sounds like we were.  I was responding to Another poster who brought up the hospitalization and deaths numbers of those who have been vaccinated which is why that number almost nill. 
 

You responded to me but were referencing the percent of people who died that were hospitalized which is why I was confused because I wasn’t talking about that.  Sorry for confusing what you were saying and sounds you realize we were talking different cohorts which brought our outcomes different. 

 
RedDenver said:
Again, here is the post I was responding to:

From the article I previously linked:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/04/13/986411423/a-mystery-under-study-how-why-and-when-covid-vaccines-arent-fully-protective

If you want to pretend that's statistically zero or whatever, then that's on you. I'm showing you that it's not. As I've already said, it's really good for a vaccine but it's not 100%.
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Your right.  At this point it’s only 99.999991% not 100%.  Hope the manufactures can correct this and get better.  

 
Archy1221 said:
Your right.  At this point it’s only 99.999991% not 100%.  Hope the manufactures can correct this and get better.  
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Again, it's around 96%. I never said the manufacturers should do better. I was simply pointing out the current data, so not sure why you're getting wrapped around the axle about this.

 
RedDenver said:
Again, it's around 96%. I never said the manufacturers should do better. I was simply pointing out the current data, so not sure why you're getting wrapped around the axle about this.
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Please tell me why it’s 96%?  That would be the topper here. You drive us down in semantics about a number from clinical data, then just toss out your own with no basis.  
 

View attachment 18455

 
RedDenver said:
Again, it's around 96%. I never said the manufacturers should do better. I was simply pointing out the current data, so not sure why you're getting wrapped around the axle about this.
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Let’s do some back of the envelope arithmetic. 

According to cumulative numbers from the Covid Tracking Project in early March, the US had around 29 million confirmed cases of infection, with 515,000 deaths. 

Estimates vary on the actual number of infections, but conservatively it’s likely at least 3-4 times the number of confirmed positives. Let’s call it 3:

3*29,000,000 = 87 million cases. 

This would put the mortality rate at:

515,000/87,000,000 ~= 0.6%

Some research done in December roughly estimated that an adult’s odds of dying once hospitalized is around 10%. So,using this number to back-calculate your odds of being hospitalized: 

0.6% * 10 = 6%.

To summarize, this would mean you have a 6% chance of being hospitalized if infected, which means...without a vaccination...your odds of avoiding hospitalization/death are around 94%. 

Circling back, you have stated that a fully vaccinated individual has a 96% chance of avoiding hospitalization/death.  

96% - 94% = 2%.  That is the overall difference that you’re claiming the vaccine makes.  I hope you’ve kept this to yourself, because we’re having enough trouble motivating people to get the shot as it is. 

 
Jason Sitoke said:
Let’s do some back of the envelope arithmetic. 

According to cumulative numbers from the Covid Tracking Project in early March, the US had around 29 million confirmed cases of infection, with 515,000 deaths. 

Estimates vary on the actual number of infections, but conservatively it’s likely at least 3-4 times the number of confirmed positives. Let’s call it 3:

3*29,000,000 = 87 million cases. 

This would put the mortality rate at:

515,000/87,000,000 ~= 0.6%

Some research done in December roughly estimated that an adult’s odds of dying once hospitalized is around 10%. So,using this number to back-calculate your odds of being hospitalized: 

0.6% * 10 = 6%.

To summarize, this would mean you have a 6% chance of being hospitalized if infected, which means...without a vaccination...your odds of avoiding hospitalization/death are around 94%. 

Circling back, you have stated that a fully vaccinated individual has a 96% chance of avoiding hospitalization/death.  

96% - 94% = 2%.  That is the overall difference that you’re claiming the vaccine makes.  I hope you’ve kept this to yourself, because we’re having enough trouble motivating people to get the shot as it is. 
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The only back of the envelope math he has to do is divide the number of hospitalized people who have been fully vaccinated by the total number of people fully vaccinated.  Or heck, he could just let the CDC do the math for him which they have.  He will quickly realize that he has made an enormous error and should quit putting false info into the discussion. 

 
Dear Lord please jettison these people to heaven ASAP so the rest of us heathens can get on with a normal life down here someday.

Amen

 
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Archy1221 said:
Please tell me what is 96%, because it sure isn’t talking about the hospitalizations and/or Deaths from Covid-19 fully vaccinated individuals being 4% 
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Jason Sitoke said:
Please tell me why it’s 96%?  That would be the topper here. You drive us down in semantics about a number from clinical data, then just toss out your own with no basis.  
 

View attachment 18455
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It's literally in the article I linked. I even bolded it in a previous post to make it more obvious.

You guys have to be trolling at this point.

 
Jason Sitoke said:
Let’s do some back of the envelope arithmetic. 

According to cumulative numbers from the Covid Tracking Project in early March, the US had around 29 million confirmed cases of infection, with 515,000 deaths. 

Estimates vary on the actual number of infections, but conservatively it’s likely at least 3-4 times the number of confirmed positives. Let’s call it 3:

3*29,000,000 = 87 million cases. 

This would put the mortality rate at:

515,000/87,000,000 ~= 0.6%

Some research done in December roughly estimated that an adult’s odds of dying once hospitalized is around 10%. So,using this number to back-calculate your odds of being hospitalized: 

0.6% * 10 = 6%.

To summarize, this would mean you have a 6% chance of being hospitalized if infected, which means...without a vaccination...your odds of avoiding hospitalization/death are around 94%. 

Circling back, you have stated that a fully vaccinated individual has a 96% chance of avoiding hospitalization/death.  

96% - 94% = 2%.  That is the overall difference that you’re claiming the vaccine makes.  I hope you’ve kept this to yourself, because we’re having enough trouble motivating people to get the shot as it is. 
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This entire analysis is based on your completely unsupported assumption that infections are "likely at least 3-4 times the number of confirmed positives". I could also throw out that the death totals are 3-4 times the number being reported, or any other factor if we're just throwing numbers out there.

If we look at the actual numbers (without guessing factors) 515000/29000000 ~= 1.8% and using your estimate of dying once hospitalized, we get 1.8% * 10 = 18%.

Or we could just look at the actual numbers instead of trying to guesstimate it, here's a paper that analyzes the CDC data and breaks down the hospitalization and ICU rates by underlying medical condition. If you look at the chart on the second page, the very first line gives the totals (only copied a portion of the table):

Code: 
      Number of Patients Number Hospitalized Overall Percent Hospitalized Overall 
Total 7,162              1,494                        21%


So using the those numbers and your logic, that would be a vaccine improvement of 96% - 79% = 17%. That's a significant reduction in number of people that need to be hospitalized. But I'm guessing the reality is more complex than that simple subtraction.

In the end though, I'm just linking the numbers that show that claims of 100% effectiveness aren't true. In fact, it's even more important that we get as many people vaccinated with an effectiveness of less than 100% because herd immunity of those for whom the vaccine is effective will help protect the small portion for whom it's not as effective.

 
RedDenver said:
This entire analysis is based on your completely unsupported assumption that infections are "likely at least 3-4 times the number of confirmed positives". I could also throw out that the death totals are 3-4 times the number being reported, or any other factor if we're just throwing numbers out there.

If we look at the actual numbers (without guessing factors) 515000/29000000 ~= 1.8% and using your estimate of dying once hospitalized, we get 1.8% * 10 = 18%.

Or we could just look at the actual numbers instead of trying to guesstimate it, here's a paper that analyzes the CDC data and breaks down the hospitalization and ICU rates by underlying medical condition. If you look at the chart on the second page, the very first line gives the totals (only copied a portion of the table):

Code: 
      Number of Patients Number Hospitalized Overall Percent Hospitalized Overall 
Total 7,162              1,494                        21%


So using the those numbers and your logic, that would be a vaccine improvement of 96% - 79% = 17%. That's a significant reduction in number of people that need to be hospitalized. But I'm guessing the reality is more complex than that simple subtraction.

In the end though, I'm just linking the numbers that show that claims of 100% effectiveness aren't true. In fact, it's even more important that we get as many people vaccinated with an effectiveness of less than 100% because herd immunity of those for whom the vaccine is effective will help protect the small portion for whom it's not as effective.
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That’s a funny way of spelling ‘sorry, I was wrong’. 

 
RedDenver said:
This entire analysis is based on your completely unsupported assumption that infections are "likely at least 3-4 times the number of confirmed positives". I could also throw out that the death totals are 3-4 times the number being reported, or any other factor if we're just throwing numbers out there.

If we look at the actual numbers (without guessing factors) 515000/29000000 ~= 1.8% and using your estimate of dying once hospitalized, we get 1.8% * 10 = 18%.

Or we could just look at the actual numbers instead of trying to guesstimate it, here's a paper that analyzes the CDC data and breaks down the hospitalization and ICU rates by underlying medical condition. If you look at the chart on the second page, the very first line gives the totals (only copied a portion of the table):

Code: 
      Number of Patients Number Hospitalized Overall Percent Hospitalized Overall 
Total 7,162              1,494                        21%


So using the those numbers and your logic, that would be a vaccine improvement of 96% - 79% = 17%. That's a significant reduction in number of people that need to be hospitalized. But I'm guessing the reality is more complex than that simple subtraction.

In the end though, I'm just linking the numbers that show that claims of 100% effectiveness aren't true. In fact, it's even more important that we get as many people vaccinated with an effectiveness of less than 100% because herd immunity of those for whom the vaccine is effective will help protect the small portion for whom it's not as effective.
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4% of vaccinated people DO NOT END UP IN THE HOSPITAL WITH COVID!!!!!   What are you not understanding????  
And just so you don’t claim something else, the original discussion WAS about the efficacy of vaccines preventing hospitalization and death.   

 
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