Trev’s Big Decision - SSO Article Herbie's Hangout

HuskerNation1 said:
Nice analysis and I fully agree that Herman or Kelly would be gone if they had the same record as Frost.  I think the question is...should the program be giving preferential treatment to Frost as a former player?  Does that bias really help the program in the long term?   
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It's tough. I grew up in the 90's and Frost was my hero as a kid. Going from getting booed to winning a natty was inspirational to me. I just say that to note my pretty clear bias.

I'm also a businessman and looking at this from a business-like angle, I think the ROI of a successful Frost is significantly higher than a successful coach not named Frost. He can rally the fanbase better than anyone else and that will mean more $$$ with success. How much does 1 more year of Frost actually hurt the overall athletic department? It's clear that the boosters will buy up tickets to keep the sellout streak alive and it doesn't get much worse than where we are. One more year also lessens the buyout and saves you money. A reboot of the offensive staff gives you a great shot at that huge ROI of a successful Frost and his lessened buyout covers their salary and then some.

With that said, in their Sunday meetings Trev has to be saying: "C'mon dude you gotta give me SOMETHING here good lord." Frost HAS to win at least 1 more game and be competitive in the other to stay. Even then you can absolutely make the argument he doesn't deserve it. 

 
HuskerNation1 said:
Nice analysis and I fully agree that Herman or Kelly would be gone if they had the same record as Frost.  I think the question is...should the program be giving preferential treatment to Frost as a former player?  Does that bias really help the program in the long term?   
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I'm concerned about this as well. Some people say this shows that we're willing to give a coach time, the time he needs to get his recruits in and system running. This in turn should look good for future hires.

I actually think it may show the opposite. We are willing to give extra time to a coach who by normal metrics should be fired, but only if said coach is a former national champ- the golden boy.

Otherwise, we fire 9 win coaches or only give you three years if you're not one of us, so good luck if you're not Scott Frost.

Not saying you have to fire him this year, but it certainly would be a reasonable thing to do. Doubt any coach from any other team would question it.

Little afraid that by keeping him another year we're just doubling down.

 
admo said:
Yeah that's what's so puzzling and frustrating.  Had the Huskers just taken care of business against Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue, they would be 6-4, and those close loses against the big boys would have been very impressive.
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I would throw Michigan State into the group of Illinois, Minnesota, and Purdue, especially given Purdue beat Michigan State over the weekend.  Even if NU had gone 2-2 in those 4 games, NU is at 5-5 with a chance to go bowling.  Everyone for Frost points to the close losses and that "the Big Ten is tough".  Yes the Big Ten is tough, and teams have upset wins/losses each weekend, but NU is the only team that doesn't get those wins.  That's what is driving me to want to get rid of Frost.

 
Sam McKewon said:

"Their success and 33-3 combined record provides the wind in the sails of Nebraska’s 3-7 season and, paradoxically, an argument for Frost’s retention. A loss is a loss is a loss is a loss, but NU’s 7-, 3-, 3- and 9-point defeats to those squads offer a kind of moral victory that, to some, may offset losses to Illinois, Minnesota and Purdue."
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Not to me.

The "super tough schedule" angle has meant less and less down the stretch precisely because the only winnable conference game we actually won was Northwestern. We've lost the other three (Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue). And more specifically our offense looked like crap in those losses.

I also think Frost will get another year for a variety of reasons. But I don't really think the close losses to tough teams should matter at all.

 
Retaining Frost will be a massive gamble by Nebraska and Trev. '22 recruiting is wash and I'm afraid '23 will suffer as well. There will have to be a high and hard benchmark, if Frost doesn't meet it he has to get cut. They will also have to nail the replacement staff if it comes to that. Very very uncertain times for this program. Very helpless feeling.

 
Treand3 said:
Retaining Frost will be a massive gamble by Nebraska and Trev. '22 recruiting is wash and I'm afraid '23 will suffer as well. There will have to be a high and hard benchmark, if Frost doesn't meet it he has to get cut. They will also have to nail the replacement staff if it comes to that. Very very uncertain times for this program. Very helpless feeling.
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I feel more helpless bringing Frost back for another year.  To me, it's just kicking the can down the road.  I would rather turn things over to a new staff who would be willing to shake things up, try to get stud recruits for 2023 and bring in transfers, as well.

 
I really just want to know who the biggest influencer was in going away from the power run game down the stretch of the season.

If I thought we'd try harder to run next year I'd feel fairly decent about Frost coming back - as long as Chinander and the entire defensive staff stays on.

My biggest fear is that Frost is just too stubborn to alter what he thinks is the best way to move the chains, and also that he's way too obsessed with how a guy plays in practice instead of how he plays in games.

 
If they bring him back, and I am afraid they will, he has to make changes on his staff.  He also needs to spend the off season learning how to run a program, build a culture, and coach in the B1G.  These seem to be issues.  Has he finally lost the smugness and cockiness he once had?  Has he been humbled enough to make the changes he needs to? 

Who knows.

 
admo said:
Yeah that's what's so puzzling and frustrating.  Had the Huskers just taken care of business against Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue, they would be 6-4, and those close loses against the big boys would have been very impressive.
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Yes ... and all of it would point to a real "fix" as we are beating the teams that we have out-recruited and are knocking on the door of those we are chasing.   Heck, we would even be lookin' at a chance to represent our side of the conference and a chance to win the B1G.  Instead, we are the bottom dweller of the conference ... having out-recruited all those above us [which doesn't show to well to the whole development area].

 
Undone said:
Not to me.

The "super tough schedule" angle has meant less and less down the stretch precisely because the only winnable conference game we actually won was Northwestern. We've lost the other three (Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue). And more specifically our offense looked like crap in those losses.

I also think Frost will get another year for a variety of reasons. But I don't really think the close losses to tough teams should matter at all.
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I tend to agree. I feel like this program has been riding the high of moral victories ever since 2018, particularly after they played Ohio State close in Columbus that year.

I get why some of the local sportswriters and fans are pushing the "close loss" narrative but quite frankly it doesn't mean anything anymore, at least not to me. Nebraska has played close games against good teams and they've played close games against bad teams. At the end of the day the result has been the same: loss, after loss, after loss.

I think Frost is going to get another year too, but I don't think it has much to do with potential.

 
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https://www.si.com/college/nebraska/football/dave-feit-another-moral-victory-and-the-progress-question-nebraska-ohio-state-football

Progress.

That is the name of the game as Frost fights for a fifth season.

Is progress being made? How do you quantify progress? Is there enough progress to justify more time? And when does progress translate into wins?

For me, the biggest question is what timeframe are we using for progress? Are we looking to see progress over last season? Since the Illinois loss? Or since Frost's first season in 2018?

In some places, I see real, measurable progress. In others, I see glimpses of potential. In others, there is little more than hope and empty promises.

How far has Nebraska progressed under Scott Frost? Not as far as you might think. Here's how I know:

The top section is an almost word-for-word copy of what I wrote in 2018 after Nebraska lost at Ohio State. The rest of that 2018 piece covers many things that are applicable in the 2021 game:

  • A Blackshirt defense carrying their weight
  • A specialist struggling mightily
  • Frost opting to attempt a field goal instead of going for it on fourth down in the red zone.
  • Dubious makeup calls.
  • Adrian Martinez, JoJo Domann, and Austin Allen making plays.
  • Special teams snafus.

The similarities to 2018 are eerie. And that is supposed to be progress?
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Undone said:
Not to me.

The "super tough schedule" angle has meant less and less down the stretch precisely because the only winnable conference game we actually won was Northwestern. We've lost the other three (Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue). And more specifically our offense looked like crap in those losses.

I also think Frost will get another year for a variety of reasons. But I don't really think the close losses to tough teams should matter at all.
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I agree with you, those close losses can count in the moral victory column towards progress if you beat the teams in your weight class and below. If you are simply playing to just below the level of the team you are playing, are you even a decent team? 

 
Red Five said:
Sam McKewon is "almost certain" Frost gets another year.

https://omaha.com/sports/huskers/football/mckewon-huskers-have-many-flaws-but-lots-of-fight-which-will-decide-frosts-fate/article_992fba86-4031-11ec-bf1a-b342651d5a2f.html
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If you bring him back, you should make him sign a new contract in which his buyout is massively reduced next season. Say 5 mil instead of 15 mil, but also greatly rewarding him for performance. Say $1,000,000 bonus for 8+ wins, $2,000,000 bonus for a West division title, $2,000,000 for B1G Championship, $2,000,000 for a playoff spot. Make him bet on himself, if he's as close as he preaches every week - he will jump on the opportunity to be the highest paid coach in the country after bonus checks. If he balks at he idea, then he probably isn't buying the stuff he's trying to sell in his pressers each week. 

 
FrantzHardySwag said:
If you bring him back, you should make him sign a new contract in which his buyout is massively reduced next season. Say 5 mil instead of 15 mil, but also greatly rewarding him for performance. Say $1,000,000 bonus for 8+ wins, $2,000,000 bonus for a West division title, $2,000,000 for B1G Championship, $2,000,000 for a playoff spot. Make him bet on himself, if he's as close as he preaches every week - he will jump on the opportunity to be the highest paid coach in the country after bonus checks. If he balks at he idea, then he probably isn't buying the stuff he's trying to sell in his pressers each week. 
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:yeah

Innovative.  Nebraska could change the coaching landscape (contractually)

 
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