Here's my take on the status of every candidate:
These could get announced before EOY:
Mickey: Win this weekend and we might be talking about removing the tag sunday. Two more wins this year and it seems like a lock. Might happen sunday if we beat Minn.
Rhule: Definitely spoken. Out of the running at Auburn which means he's either coming or not coaching. He's supposedly in Ireland enjoying his buyout.
Urban: Tick tock. Not sure why he'd want to make things harder on himself by taking a job closer to NSD. Don't see him choosing us over Auburn if he wants to coach.
Monken: Trev's son goes to Army so it might be a consultation deal. Monken has tried getting out of Army for a few years (was a candidate at Kansas/Illinois) and the chop block rules have all but killed the triple, so I'd be surprised if he didn't take a low-level P5/G5 job this offseason.
Patterson: Probably just feeling things out or consulting. He's not getting any more smoke here than he is at ASU.
Petersen: Not happening. Boise and UW have opened since he left UW and he isn't leaving that area.
If it's any of these, we won't know until Nov 27th+:
Aranda: No idea what to make of these rumors but I feel like it's a lot of wishful thinking. Makes just as much sense as it doesn't.
Bielema: No smoke right now.
Leipold: OUT, per Bishop and Petersen.
Kleiman: OUT, per Bishop and Petersen.
Campbell: OUT, per Bishop and Petersen.
Kiffin: Would be jeopardizing the Bama job he wants if he takes this one. Would also be extremely cost inhibitive since there'd be a bidding war with Auburn.