** 2023 Opponent Preview : Colorado (Game 2) **

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runningblind said:
For the whole year I can buy we should be better overall than those Temple and Baylor teams, but just slow down on the start out of the gate. 
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I'd certainly hope so, they won 2 games and 1 game, respectively.

runningblind said:
Not starting 3-1 isn't a red flag at all in year 1, that's pretty ridiculous.
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A warning isn't the same as firing the guy. Frost showed a red flag in his inability to win his first half season, but the back half of the season showed tremendous enough progress that he was pre-season ranked the following year.

Our expectations of Rhule are low not because of Rhule but because we've been beaten down so hard we're afraid to even have expectations. It's just easier to not have them than to risk disappointment.

Rhule himself has stated this is closer to the Year 2 situation at his previous stops and all indications we've seen have backed up that claim. Take away the new coach angle for a moment and Nebraska would still be projected to be about a .500 team based on previous performance, returning starters, etc. That's not even conjecture, that's exactly what we've seen the past few years.

Nebraska did not need a new coach because it needs a total rebuild. It went out and got a new coach due to chronic underperforming.

 
Undone said:
What are the other two we'd really expect to be able to win?
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Let me put it this way. Based on what we know now, because these things can radically change over the course of the season....who besides Michigan would surprise a neutral observer reading the paper on Sunday morning if Nebraska beat them the night before?

 
brophog said:
I'd certainly hope so, they won 2 games and 1 game, respectively.

A warning isn't the same as firing the guy. Frost showed a red flag in his inability to win his first half season, but the back half of the season showed tremendous enough progress that he was pre-season ranked the following year.

Our expectations of Rhule are low not because of Rhule but because we've been beaten down so hard we're afraid to even have expectations. It's just easier to not have them than to risk disappointment.

Rhule himself has stated this is closer to the Year 2 situation at his previous stops and all indications we've seen have backed up that claim. Take away the new coach angle for a moment and Nebraska would still be projected to be about a .500 team based on previous performance, returning starters, etc. That's not even conjecture, that's exactly what we've seen the past few years.

Nebraska did not need a new coach because it needs a total rebuild. It went out and got a new coach due to chronic underperforming.
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That still doesn't change the fact that we start out with two on the road, with a team that doesn't know how to win. We're on the same page for the end of the year and Rhule having them on the upswing. But we aren't on the same page in expecting results right off the bat, saying things like we expect to be 3-1. In my opinion, that's unfair to everyone involved in year 1 and is unlikely to actually happen.

 
runningblind said:
I would say the first two games have little bearing on the course of the year, despite what fans will want to think.  Back to back road games, one in conference and one in a hostile environment for a team with a new coach in his first year, isn't going to set the tone.  I fully expect to start 0-2, but to get better as the year goes on with an actual adult in charge this time. 
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I believe Rhule can be successful long term here even if he goes 0-2. 
 

However, I disagree that starting 2-0 vs 0-2 has no affect on the rest of THIS year. 
 

The mentality of the team would be totally different going into a stretch of very winnable games with a chance then of being 7-1 going into November. Or, we start 0-2 and very well might be 2-3 going into October with a good chance of losing the next 3 to be 2-6 going into November. 

 
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brophog said:
Nebraska did not need a new coach because it needs a total rebuild.
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I disagree. Nebraska is a rebuild. People can quibble about whether it's a rebuild or a total rebuild, but it's definitely in that range. A new coach isn't suddenly going to improve the talent of the lines and a single off-season isn't going to be enough to completely fix the under-development of the returning players. Whether that translates into 2 wins (that's my guess) or 4 wins or 6 wins etc. is anyone's guess.

 
Toe said:
Actually, we were pretty good with fumbles last year, #32 in fumbles lost. (That was up from #111 two years earlier.)
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Good call and good stat there. I'd guess we had fewer runs last year than in 2021, but that stat would still probably reflect a greatly reduced "fumbles lost per carry," if that makes sense.

RedDenver said:
People can quibble about whether it's a rebuild or a total rebuild, but it's definitely in that range. A new coach isn't suddenly going to improve the talent of the lines and a single off-season isn't going to be enough to completely fix the under-development of the returning players.
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I think you're right that it's in that range.

I like to ask questions like this because they're fun (even though the thought experiment isn't worth all that much): If Bret Bielema would have had our exact rosters and had started coaching at Illinois in 2018, would he have had a .339 win percentage? I'd bet he'd have been considerably better and wouldn't have failed to make a bowl in five seasons.

 
Undone said:
I like to ask questions like this because they're fun (even though the thought experiment isn't worth all that much): If Bret Bielema would have had our exact rosters and had started coaching at Illinois in 2018, would he have had a .339 win percentage? I'd bet he'd have been considerably better and wouldn't have failed to make a bowl in five seasons.
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I'd bet that he would have either finished 2nd or won the west at least once. Hell he finished 2nd last year. BB has shown the ability to develop players and definitely has an identity that he is good at spotting talent that fits his scheme

 
brophog said:
Our expectations of Rhule are low not because of Rhule but because we've been beaten down so hard we're afraid to even have expectations. It's just easier to not have them than to risk disappointment.
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In a similar way to some folks being determined to not have expectations in order to not be let down, you (for whatever reason) seem equally determined to hold onto hope and believe that Rhule will get a magic jumpstart.

Which is fine. I don't have any problem with anyone being overly optimistic or pessimistic about a sports team. But in your pursuit to convince yourself that we will or should start out strong, you also seem determined to only pay attention to the variables that you think support that idea and ignore the ones that might be pointing to a rockier beginning.

 
brophog said:
Let me put it this way. Based on what we know now, because these things can radically change over the course of the season....who besides Michigan would surprise a neutral observer reading the paper on Sunday morning if Nebraska beat them the night before?
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I’m hardly a neutral observer but I can’t think of too many outcomes that would surprise me. Beat Michigan, lose to NW and Maryland  :dunno  Wasn’t it just 2 years ago we all but beat Michigan at home, with THAT coach? It’ll be awhile before this team surprises me.

 
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