Triaging the QB room

[Mavric]

Mav, thanks for posting that recap of Haarberg's passing.  if I look at things objectively, the passing was pretty average, but not as bad as everyone made things seem.  Here is my summary of HH's passing from that video.

- He started out very well on the first drive, hitting big plays to Washington and Fidone

- Of the 12 incompletions, 3 of those are what I would call "throw away" passes where he was under pressure or no receivers were open

- On what I am going to deem "deep passes" (20+ yards down field), he was 2 of 4 with an INT.  NU was able to score 10 points on the drivers where he completed a deep pass.  One incompletion was on a well-covered wheel route and the INT was basically the same as a punt on 3rd and 14.  The DB didn't get any yardage after the INT, and that was Haarberg's last pass of the night.

- IMO his worst pass/read of the night was on 3rd and 5 in the 2nd quarter.  Haarberg looked for a slant route, and thankfully the ball was knocked down at the LOS, because there were 2 other defenders covering the slant route (including one who was under the WR).

- The good news is that HH followed that poor 3rd down pass with maybe his best pass of the night on 4th and 5.  He moved right in the pocket as he felt some rush, and hit the WR with a nice pass right at the first down line.

- His worst drive was the possession right before half.  I was frustrated with the play-calling on that drive.  I know Satt is looking to get points before the half, but right after Illinois scored to cut the lead to 17-7, I thought the prudent play calls would have been to run the ball, run clock, or force Illinois to use their timeouts.  I thought the play calls weren't good, especially considering NU was going into the wind, which wouldn't have been good for a long FG.

- On that drive before half, Haarberg had some passes sail on him, and weren't close to the receiver.  He also made a poor decision on a pass over the middle which could have been picked by a LB.

- In the 2nd half, it seemed like the offense was more conservative due to the good field position and the score of the game.  Haarberg did have a poor pass/miscommunication down the middle to Fidone when NU was in the red zone.  Haarberg did have good execution on a 3rd and 2 pass to pick up a key 1st down in the 4th quarter.  Unfortunately, that was followed by one of the fumbles by a RB.

I expect DC's to play zone defenses against NU with either Haarberg or Sims at QB, because that will force them to read the defenses to find an open man.  However, zone defenses also might be good for NU because that really wouldn't force the NU WR's to win one on one battles,.  That would enable our WR's to find soft spots in the zones.

Good synopsis.

• I actually thought he threw the ball pretty well in the first half.  At least up to where he was forced into throwing in the last couple of minutes.
  
• I think the claims of him staring down receivers are completely off-base.  The only time I see him "staring down a receiver" are when his primary read is running a long-developing route and he's waiting for the break.  Those plays often worked well.
  
• He definitely forced the one throw to Fidone.  But if you're going to force a throw, third and five to your best target isn't the worst force I can come up with.
  
• He definitely had issues throwing high, mostly in the second half.  It looks to me like it was probably caused by the delivery.  It's almost like he's trying to get a higher release point but he's not getting to it until late in his throwing motion.  So he's throwing the ball "up" instead of driving it.  Kind of the same issue where he got the back in the flat lit up.  It looks like if he drives that ball out there there was a little room.  But it kind of floats because there's not much zip on it.
  
• I didn't love the wheel route to Grant but it was there if he drives it in there more.  Seemed like he then over-compensated a couple of plays later and floated it to Hahn on the same route.  At least it was complete.
  
• I think the complaints about dropped interceptions are over-blown.  The first one looked worse live but that linebacker had to make a one-handed jumping stab at it.  That's not getting picked very often, even if it wasn't a great decision.  Then he definitely over-threw Fleeks in the flat, which was a bad throw, but Fleeks tipped it and, again, that's not getting picked very often.  So neither was a great throw but he didn't hand them anything either.
  

 

[floridacorn]

The 2 things that stood out to me are he's a beat late on most passes & he rarely throws a wr friendly ball.  Catching a wobbly ball is like hitting a curve

 

[ColoradoHusk]

The 2 things that stood out to me are he's a beat late on most passes & he rarely throws a wr friendly ball.  Catching a wobbly ball is like hitting a curve

He also seems to have a slower release, mostly due to dropping his arm angle to sidearm on so many passes. 

 

[Mavric]

[No message]

 

[Enhance]

Haaberg appears to be floating in completion percentage ranges similar to what he was in high school - he finished seasons with 52.9%, 56.7%, and 54.8% completion percentages. Currently completing 52.1% of his passes. So, he could still improve, and he doesn't have the strongest tools around him, but his accuracy is following the trends he showcased as a younger player.

I do continue to have this itching feeling that, assuming Sims is healthy after the bye week, we'll start to see more of a two QB system.

 

[Mavric]

Haaberg appears to be floating in completion percentage ranges similar to what he was in high school - he finished seasons with 52.9%, 56.7%, and 54.8% completion percentages. Currently completing 52.1% of his passes. So, he could still improve, and he doesn't have the strongest tools around him, but his accuracy is following the trends he showcased as a younger player.

I do continue to have this itching feeling that, assuming Sims is healthy after the bye week, we'll start to see more of a two QB system.

He's not the most accurate passer.

But we also don't seem to run many of the short, quick passes that a lot of QBs get to throw to up their completion percentages: screens, swing passes, etc.  Also, we don't seem to have options to check it down to RBs a lot either.  So that's also part of it.

 

[soup]

He's not the most accurate passer.

But we also don't seem to run many of the short, quick passes that a lot of QBs get to throw to up their completion percentages: screens, swing passes, etc.  Also, we don't seem to have options to check it down to RBs a lot either.  So that's also part of it.

Those types of outlets are being held in for max protect to cover for the OL.  Everything is tied together.

 

[Undone]

Those types of outlets are being held in for max protect to cover for the OL.  Everything is tied together.

I think Mavric might have been talking about designed quick passes though, not check-down outlets.

 

[Archy1221]

He's not the most accurate passer.

But we also don't seem to run many of the short, quick passes that a lot of QBs get to throw to up their completion percentages: screens, swing passes, etc.  Also, we don't seem to have options to check it down to RBs a lot either.  So that's also part of it.

15 of the pass attempts in the Illinois game from the video above shown had outlet options or were designed quick slant/quick out patterns as first reads.   
 

In fairness to HH, probably half the time a RB had on outside outlet release he was pretty well covered.  The other times, the RB chipped and was available or PA and was open in the vacated MLB area.   

 

[ColoradoHusk]

The jet-sweep “pop passes” are becoming more common, and can definitely artificially inflate a QB’s completion percentage. If 1 out of every 20 attempts by a QB is a glorified hand-off, that results in a 5% higher completion percentage over the course of a season.

 

[Mavric]

15 of the pass attempts in the Illinois game from the video above shown had outlet options or were designed quick slant/quick out patterns as first reads. 

Yeah, I'm pretty sure you don't know which routes were supposed to be the first reads.

Really only the two speed outs out of the backfield in the red zone were plays that were really easy throws.  Slants and outs aren't what I'm talking about.  Basically throws behind the LOS that are (almost always) uncontested.

 

[Archy1221]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure you don't know which routes were supposed to be the first reads.

Do I have NU’s playbook? No. Do I understand pass plays and coverage in general? Yeah, I only played the position in college and it’s pretty easy to tell a first read when he literally takes a 1 step drop, stares at the receiver and throws the quick slant or quick out like to Coleman :dunno .  
as

Also, Kinda like the first pass of the game being a first read deep fade based on coverage.  (Well done by him BTW).

Really only the two speed outs out of the backfield in the red zone were plays that were really easy throws.  Slants and outs aren't what I'm talking about. 

Slants and outs may not be what you are talking about being “really easy throws”, but in the grand scheme of the throws a QB makes,  they are fairly easy throws when the receiver is open (75+ completion percentage type throws).   And again, I say when the receiver is open. Illinois first drive of the game is an example of this.  

 

[Undone]

Really only the two speed outs out of the backfield in the red zone were plays that were really easy throws.  Slants and outs aren't what I'm talking about.  Basically throws behind the LOS that are (almost always) uncontested.

Yeah, I've been saying this for a couple weeks also.

It kind of seems like Satterfield or Rhule like the tunnel screens on third down occasionally, but they don't seem to like them all that much on 1st & 2nd down. Which is fine; I get that Matt wants to be the more physical team, and running downhill gets you to that place where you're wearing your opponent out by the beginning of the 4th quarter a bit better.

But I think the point is, those easier throws pump up the completion % (like @ColoradoHusk was mentioning).

 

[Undone]

Slants and outs may not be what you are talking about being “really easy throws”, but in the grand scheme of the throws a QB makes,  they are fairly easy throws when the receiver is open (75+ completion percentage type throws).   And again, I say when the receiver is open. Illinois first drive of the game is an example of this.

Yes but the conversation was originally about completion percentage. So it does matter in that context quite a bit; if your team throws a ton of those passes each game, completion % is higher. As an aside, people would use this against Adrian quite a bit when others would defend his passing ability.

 

[Archy1221]

Yes but the conversation was originally about completion percentage. So it does matter in that context quite a bit; if your team throws a ton of those passes each game, completion % is higher. As an aside, people would use this against Adrian quite a bit when others would defend his passing ability.

HH is sitting at 52%.   He will almost certainly not be a 68-70% passer no matter what, but it’s certainly likely he could hit the 60-63% completion range by reading the defense better and hitting the over the middle check down to the RB more often in the offense as is.  However , I also would love to see more PA screen passes or a bubble screen or two.