2023 CFB Locks of the Weak

teachercd said:
Man...this is a tough one.  I would like to just say I won't wager on it...but I know I will.
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Got the same feeling.  

I want PSU to win the game.  I also think OSU is not fantastically awesome on offense and defense like they have been the last 10 years or so.  They are a little off for sure.

I'm staying away.  From my experience, I never win when I bet against OSU with the spread, and especially with Ryan Day as coach.  It's almost like he knows and just HAS TO win more than the line says it is.  He's robotic about getting that meaningless TD in, or meaningless FG.  

I learned my lessons a few years ago, that I never do well when I bet against Alabama or Ohio State (aside from SU/Money Line).  In fact, it seems the closer the line gets, these teams end up winning by a lot more and makes you think "what was I thinking?!!".  Almost every friggin time lol

 
admo said:
Got the same feeling.  

I want PSU to win the game.  I also think OSU is not fantastically awesome on offense and defense like they have been the last 10 years or so.  They are a little off for sure.

I'm staying away.  From my experience, I never win when I bet against OSU with the spread, and especially with Ryan Day as coach.  It's almost like he knows and just HAS TO win more than the line says it is.  He's robotic about getting that meaningless TD in, or meaningless FG.  

I learned my lessons a few years ago, that I never do well when I bet against Alabama or Ohio State (aside from SU/Money Line).  In fact, it seems the closer the line gets, these teams end up winning by a lot more and makes you think "what was I thinking?!!".  Almost every friggin time lol
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Do you do a lot of money line wagers?

 
teachercd said:
Do you do a lot of money line wagers?
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I like SU games because I like the feeling I get when I win.  At the end of the day, that is what feels the best - winning - and the payout is just a side of gravy to keep me going.  I have a simple winning formula, not perfected yet, but this is how I do on SU games.  

$15/$20 for a 100% confident bet

$5 for 90% confidence with a slight hesitation

I almost always bet SU favorites with the Mount Rushmore of CFB.  Only the favorites:  Georgia, Alabama, Michigan, Ohio State.  

This is the reason why they have PS (point spreads) to make it exciting for anyone else to take some action.  

I stay away from risky teams (even though it could bring in excitement) - Texas, USC, Florida, Colorado, OU.  They could come out flat or have a masterpiece and mess it up.  

I never bet on the BigTen West, and stay away from up and down teams.

My system comes down to winning and the question I ask myself is this: 

Who is PB (Playing Better) and Who is the BT (Better Team).

I pick favorites that are favored to win.  Any PS (point spread) that is (-1) to (-4) is a pickem, but really tilts towards the favorite.  Remember, at the end of the day I just want to know "Who's playing better, Who's the better team, and Who's going to win?"  

I love night games, especially for home team favorites.  Not all, because if a road team is the favorite, and it's -3 spread, I like the favorite.  

I love not having to scoreboard watch or care about the spread.  When the game is over (whenver that is) I can check to see who won the game, and I love that concept.  It's either "pat myself on the back with a smile" or "tip your hat to the underdog".

I never bet the underdog with SU picks.  Never.  Not worth it to get it correct once out of 7 or 8 tries.  So I stay away and take the favorite to do their job and win straight up like they are supposed to do.

My favorite game this year was Ohio State vs Notre Dame.  I rooted so hard for the green and gold that game, including the final drive and final plays that went bonkers.

However, my SU pick: 

Ohio State (-3) ML/SU pick over ND (at home, at night)

Bet $15 - won $11.11

Why?  Because it's Ohio State.  It's Alabama.  It's Georgia.  It's Michigan.  They find a way.

Here are some other examples of my SU picks: 

Few weeks back: 

Alabama -2.5 (A&M) - (Bet $15 Won $12.61)
Georgia - 14.5 (Kentucky) - (Bet $20 Won $3.04)
Ohio State - 17 (Maryland) - (Bet $20 Won $1.88)
Michigan - 18.5 (Minnesota) - (Bet $30 Won $1.18)
SU/ML record - 4 Wins 0 Losses 
SU/ML Winning -   $18.71 

Big time money parlay $40 bucks on the favorites (same day):

Michigan - 18.5 
Georgia - 14.5
OSU - 17
$40 bet - won $12.40

Won $31 for the day on SU picks/favorites.  Also lost $15 on games with point spreads.  

Here's one more example a few weeks back:

Straight UP picks to win the game: 

FSU -1.5 (Clemson) - (Bet $5 won $4.50)
Ohio State - 3 (ND) - (Bet $15 won $11.11)
Oregon State - 3 (WSU) - (Bet $5 won $3.71)
Maryland - 7 (MSU) - (Bet $5 won $2.11)
Alabama - 7 (Ole Miss) - (Bet $15 won $6.33)

SU 5-0 Winning:  $27.76 - EGO is happy

Also same day: 

$15 parlay

Alabama - 7 (Ole Miss)
Penn State -14 (Iowa)
Won: $13.42  

Those are big winners in the sense that I had bet a little more than I normally want to.  If I was in Vegas though, I would have put $100 down on most of the games.

But mostly I put down $5 to win a dollar or two, and it feels great and adds up.  With Bama, Georgia, Michigan and OSU, I normally put down a few pizzas (15-30) because they are going to win.  

Any line over 17 sucks because the payout is weak, but still.  I love to win so I love it.  :)

 
teachercd said:
16-6

Cuse +2.5

BC -14 (I have heard a few podcast guys mention this as their super lock, one podcaster even said he had this line at BC -20)

ND/Pitt over 45
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I don't what it is or why that you and I always like Syracuse in a few games per year, over the years.  LOL it's something I can't explain, you can't explain, but it's something that makes sense too

 
@JJ Husker that Oregon vs Utah game has me really interested and intrigued too

Utah's coach Kyle Whittingham is about as Nick Saban as it gets.  And he even beat Saban like 15 years ago.  All he does is win, it seems.

There was no reason for Utah to go to Southern California, play in the Coliseum and beat Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams for the third time in two years, while using 2nd/3rd string Qbs and a safety playing running back (two ways).  Amazing.

The Oregon line started at +1.5 at Utah and quickly moved to -6.5.

The line is a little high for me, but it's the type of ML game I would want to play.  I only wish it was at night instead of 230pm.  A night game in Utah would have been nuts and a lot of fun!  

I really like Washington and Oregon this year, but man is it tough to beat Utah and Whittingham.  I don't know what to do (who to pick yet), but I'll probably put $5 on it (Straight up).  Sounds crazy, but does Utah really need 6.5 points?  Either they win at home, or they don't.   A blowout loss doesn't mean anything.  Both teams are 6-1, and Oregon's coach seems to go for too many forth down plays and refuses to kick field goals (points do add up during a game).  Great game for a little action.  chuckleshuffle

 
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