teachercd
Active member
Wow, I feel like this really needs to be behind closed doors. You are going to see a split now in the D party, which won't help things.
With that said, I have no clue if LLLLLLoyd is popular or not so it might not matter.
Democrats "Break Glass in Case of Emergency" Plan - Picking an alternate candidate.
- Thread starter Dr. Strangelove
- Start date
With that said, I have no clue if LLLLLLoyd is popular or not so it might not matter.
I can understand that too. My original comment was based off of someone's post that if you are white, you are (tribally) represented by a President of same skin color.
Biden nor Trump represent the attitudes of the majority of white people I know. Sure, they may agree or disagree with particulars, but its nowhere near full stop agreement/disagreement. Its like that for most people I know, regardless of their skin color.
TGHusker
New member
Interesting concept. One month blitz primary - if Biden steps down soon.
https://www.semafor.com/article/07/07/2024/blitz-primary-could-open-up-democratic-race-if-biden-drops-out
https://www.semafor.com/article/07/07/2024/blitz-primary-could-open-up-democratic-race-if-biden-drops-out
Mierin
Donor
Are they calling a primary so they can pretend like it's like a primary? Democratic voters would not be involved, only delegates.
teachercd
Active member
Right?? This seems like an amazingly horrible idea.
Just stick with Joe, you will win with Joe.
TGHusker
New member
Nate Silver has a very interesting read in the link below. I have copied a portion of it - the heart of the article but the whole thing is worth the read.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/biden-has-a-weak-hand
Biden has a weak hand
Democrats don't know how to spot a bluff.
NATE SILVER
JUL 09, 2024
https://www.natesilver.net/p/biden-has-a-weak-hand
Biden has a weak hand
Democrats don't know how to spot a bluff.
NATE SILVER
JUL 09, 2024
There are also tactical considerations in play — like whether publicly calling for Biden’s ouster might only make him more obstinate. And at Semafor, Benjy Sarlin brings up another problem — the game theory doctrine of mutually assured destruction:
What Biden can do is be stubborn in a way that sets up a scenario of mutually assured destruction for Democrats. So long as opponents of his nomination believe it’s impossible to force him to step aside, any escalation of their criticism risks damaging him even further in November. And the worse his standing gets, the more his party is likely to suffer up and down the ballot.
At this point, Biden isn’t even trying to convince anyone that he’ll run an effective campaign against Trump. Instead, he’s just telling Democrats they don’t have a choice — so any further criticism will only enable Trump and make the situation still worse. Notwithstanding that this is exactly the sort of thinking that got Democrats into trouble in the first place, I don’t think this argument should persuade anyone. Biden has an extremely weak hand, and Democrats should call his bluff. Here are seven reasons why:
(1) Biden's situation is probably already beyond repair. Even before the debate, Biden was roughly a 2:1 underdog in our forecast. His chances have fallen since then, and they’ll probably continue to decline as more battleground state polling comes in. The bigger problem, though, is that even Biden’s 29 percent chances (our model’s forecast as of Tuesday) are built from past examples where candidates were capable of running relatively normal campaigns, which Biden isn’t. The whole premise of Biden’s campaign — steady, adult leadership — has now been fatally undermined.
Does that mean Biden’s chances are zero? I wouldn’t say that. Maybe the polling has been way, way off since the beginning. Maybe Democrats can sell voters on the dangers of Project 2025. Maybe there will be some other shocking news event that redounds to their benefit. But all of these are things that would help any Democrat, not just Biden. If Democrats retain the presidency, it will be despite Biden, not because of him.
(2) Biden is almost certain to have other “senior moments”, which could come past the point of no return. Even under ideal conditions — a phone call to Morning Joe, a program with hosts who are extremely sympathetic3 where he could read off scripted talking points — Biden struggled to stay on message. What’s it going to be like when he has to debate Trump again in September? Or there’s an international crisis and Biden has to give an impromptu news conference? Or his health situation continues to notably deteriorate over the next four months, or he has some sort of acute medical episode? Or his polling declines further rather than rebounds — not hard to imagine given that his approval ratings have moved steadily downward throughout his term? If they stick with Biden now, Democrats could easily be faced with a situation later where they are drawing dead and don’t have the option to replace him (for instance, ballots might already have been printed).
(3) Democrats haven’t gone all that far up the escalatory ladder. We’ve all been in positions where we’re seeking to change someone’s undesirable behavior — a boss or a subordinate, a child or an aging parent . You start with subtle hints — what if we bought you some new shirts, those ones smell a little musty, you might say to a teenager with poor personal hygiene — and then gradually work your way up the escalatory ladder. Over the weekend, I put out this ordered list of steps that Democrats might take to persuade Biden to step down. They’d gotten to roughly Step 6 or Step 7, but then the progress stopped:
It’s a natural place for an impasse, because we’re basically at the end of the steps that allow Biden to move aside gracefully. Steps beyond this plausibly could damage Biden irreparably — but that doesn’t matter if he’s already irreparably damaged (see point #1) or he’s not going to be the nominee anyway because at some point the escalation will work. In MAD terms, Democrats potentially have first strike capabilities. If they can damage Biden to the point where his chances of winning are not merely low but essentially zero, he loses his leverage.
(4) Democrats do have some nuclear options. So it may be time to stage an intervention — for a group of senior leaders to directly confront Biden, first privately and then if necessary publicly, and tell him it’s time to go.
And what if that doesn’t work? Well, Democrats actually can escalate further. In fact — and there is a lot of incorrect reporting on this point — it is actually not Biden’s choice whether he wants to be the nominee. Instead, it’s technically up to convention delegates. Democratic party rules contain a provision that allows delegates to back another candidate if they cannot represent their original choice “in all good conscience.” There is nothing legally binding them to vote for Biden.
Now, this is a challenging path because 99 percent of the delegates who will vote on the first ballot4 were selected by Biden’s campaign, who won all but a handful of delegates in Democrats’ largely uncompetitive primaries. Still, people who serve as delegates to a party convention tend to be loyal to their parties as well as to the candidate who selects them, and some of these delegates are already having doubts about Biden. In fact, contrary to the White House’s talking points, many rank-and-file Democratic voters would also prefer to replace Biden in surveys conducted since the debate.
Plus, under mutually assured destruction, the threat of going nuclear can be a powerful deterrent even if you’re relatively unlikely to exercise it. So it isn’t a trivial consideration that Democrats have the “conscience clause” — or even the 25th Amendment. They actually have the most powerful weapons in the “game”.
(5) Running for another term is probably not in Biden’s best interest. This is because he’s probably going to lose. And if he loses, his considerable first-term accomplishments will be overshadowed, and he’ll be remembered by history as the stubborn old man who refused to exit the stage and enabled a second term for Trump.5 If you’re hoping to soothe Biden off the stage with carrots rather than sticks, seeking to persuade him of this might still work.
(6) Kamala Harris is probably a mutually agreeable option. I’ll want to write more about Harris if I can find the time. But my strong sense is that people who want Biden out would be perfectly happy with Harris (even if they’d prefer some sort of open nomination process) — whereas people are defending Biden are more indifferent between Biden and Harris (but are strongly against an open process). In technical terms, Harris is probably the choice that would emerge from a negotiation in a game-theory equilibrium — not necessarily the party’s best option to defeat Trump, but the one minimizes the loss function for respective party stakeholders.
And in more practical terms: Biden’s biggest defenders so far have been the Congressional Black Caucus. Would they really balk at replacing Biden with his Black vice president? There is plausibly a deal to be struck: Biden doubters agree to drop their demand for an open convention and support Harris, an option that Biden defenders can live with.
(7) Here be dragons. I’ll conclude with this: even if the tactics and strategy are hard to work out, it can’t possibly be a good idea to nominate someone in Biden’s condition to another four years in office. It just can’t be. If you think it is, try again because you did the math wrong. It’s not a sales pitch Democrats can make with a straight face, and voters aren’t buying it.
Their best argument, of course, is “well, Trump is worse” — but that doesn’t answer the question of why Democrats were in a position to offer voters an acceptable choice and didn’t exercise it. When in doubt, make the responsible move. And don’t try to run a bluff when you so obviously don’t have the goods.
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Dr. Strangelove
New member
I don't always agree with Nate Silver, but he more or less nailed it here. Democrats issue with Biden was that he was down in a race where he was extremely unlikely to improve as the election drew closer. The risk was that he becomes an anchor to the quality candidates Democrats put up in key Senate and house races - races they're currently winning but, historically, those races fall to where the President is in polls (rather than strong Senate candidates lifting their parties Presidential candidate to where they are).Nate Silver has a very interesting read in the link below. I have copied a portion of it - the heart of the article but the whole thing is worth the read.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/biden-has-a-weak-hand
Biden has a weak hand
Democrats don't know how to spot a bluff.
NATE SILVER
JUL 09, 2024
I agree with his take on Harris. She's now almost certainly going to be the candidate Dem's nominate, and while she isn't the strongest candidate she can articulate the message against Trump - which is an easy message because Trump is a toxic cancerous sludge that is an embarrassing s#!t stain on history.
Her job is to moderate on issues: agree that illegal immigration needs to be addressed, publicly say that America is a great country, and hammer Trump on abortion - an issue that has performed extremely well in nearly every election it's been a part of since the Dobbs decision. These are all things Biden could not effectively do on the campaign trail but she can. Lastly, I think it's pretty obvious she's going to pick Josh Shapiro as her VP. The secondary options are North Carolina governor Roy Cooper or Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear.
You can also expect Pete Buttigeg to do heavy stumping on talk shows, even more than he usually does over the next few months.
TGHusker
New member
I agree wt your comments. I, too, think it will be Shapiro as the VP pick. Makes the more sense as she needs to secure the electors from PA. I think he would be a good pic and yes Cooper and Beshear would be good alternatives. She most likely won't carry very red state Kentucky and Biden barely lost NC last time - so she may be able to take NC this time around - as she contrasts greatly from Trump. While, as I previously noted, she is/was towards the bottom of my list (with the before mentioned governors being at the top), she will be very capable of communicating the Dem vision and also prosecuting trump and put him in his place - criminal that he is.
Dr. Strangelove
New member
I think you're correct regarding her contrast with Trump and her ability to campaign effectively against Trump.
I'm not really sure Democrats have a realistic chance at winning North Carolina. Their path to electoral college victory is tenuous. They're probably going to focus on the "Blue Wall". We'll see if their map expands to the point where Nevada, Arizona and Georgia are back in play (I personally don't think those states are winnable). I think that while Harris has a better chance of winning than Biden, she is still probably favored to lose. We traded a candidate with a 10% chance to win for a candidate that has a 40% chance to win. However, if Josh Shapiro can effectively secure Pennsylvania, her odds of winning increase dramatically.
This election is a lot more competitive today than it was yesterday - although Harris now has the ability to close the lead. Even in a loss, Harris at the top of the ticket will give Democrats a better chance of winning the house or securing key Senate victories. Biden was simply not going to be able to do any of that.
TGHusker
New member
So very important. IF trump the criminal wins, the House and Senate will be the wall to preserve Democracy.
Crusader Husker
New member
In Ohio, trumps cadidate is getting killed in the polls. I will probably vote for Brown. If JD vance is gone it will leave a void. Not sure how the replacement is picked in Ohio.
TGHusker
New member
Well if/when the felon loses, JD will remain in the senate and will be your senator still
Typically, if trump wins and there is a vacancy, the Governor will appoint a replacement. DeWine is more moderate, so that would be an upgrade if he picks a more moderate person
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BigRedBuster
Active member
One thing that she is going to bring in the campaign is energy. She is going to be all over the place and constantly in these swing states. Trump is going to be golfing 6 days a week and holding a MAGA rally maybe every two weeks. The rest of the time he’ll be changing the bandaid on his ear where a piece of glass nicked him.
Dr. Strangelove
New member
I completely agree. Her massive fundraising haul proves that there is at least enthusiasm in the Democratic base.
And while she polls slightly better than Biden, but still behind Trump, there's a lot of belief now that she can campaign vigorously and erode Trump's lead. I just don't think that Joe Biden had the ability to do that.
Democrats are going to have to stay on message, they're going to need a lot of money to make sure that the low-information voters are aware of her campaign, and she needs to really hammer the message home starting in early September.