swmohusker
Active member
If he hugs her, there will be a slow mo montage of Ol Joe hugging on young gurlz. Business decision.
Biden's America
- Thread starter Danny Bateman
- Start date
teachercd
Active member
Lorewarn
New member
Remember how some posters out of the blue started being more particularly interested in migrant crime not that long ago? Any guess as to whether that was based off of anything substantial or just some cooked up fabricated fear mongering that the most gullible among us so easily get duped by?
Well I'm here to help answer. First, the timeline:
• Out of nowhere, Fox starts pumping up 'migrant crime' stories focused on a "wave" of crime and mentions (more on the out of nowhere bit later), with 28 mentions Nov 26-Dec 26, 45 mentions Dec 27-Jan 27, then 317 mentions Jan 28-Feb 28 - data here
• There was a correlated spike in the number of Americans viewing it as their main issue facing this country today, with an 8% increase from Jan to Feb - https://news.gallup.com/poll/611135/immigration-surges-top-important-problem-list.aspx#:~:text=The government ranked first each,change in the past month.
The thing is though, this had no actual correlation or bearing on anything in reality, as there is no migrant crime wave and there is no crime wave. Jan-March '23 compared to the same timeframe in '24 shows violent crime down 15.2%, murder down 26.4%, rape down 25.7%, robbery down 17.8%, aggravated assault down 12.5%, and property crime down 15.1% - https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2024-quarterly-crime-report-and-use-of-force-data-update
That's a more micro scale, but how about a more macro one?
Okay, so crime is down long term and short term, but nonetheless the conversation around crime committed by migrants has exploded. Is there anything at all there?
In short, no.
From the Department of Justice:
https://crimeandjusticeresearchalliance.org/rsrch/sanctuary-cities-unauthorized-immigration-and-crime/
Some more tidbits:
Texas is important to note, because most states law enforcement don't actually track migrant status in regards to crime data (making for a non-comprehensive picture), Texas does, and in regards to Texas (also being the biggest border state), CATO's peer reviewed studies found that "The illegal immigrant criminal conviction rate was 45 percent below that of native-born Americans in Texas. The legal immigrant criminal conviction rate was 62 percent below that of native-born Americans." in 2020 as well as finding in 2022 that "the homicide conviction rate was 3.1 per 100,000 for illegal immigrants, 1.8 per 100,000 for legal immigrants, and 4.9 per 100,000 for native-born Americans ... Illegal immigrants made up about 7.1 percent of the Texas population in 2022 but accounted for only 5 percent of all people convicted of homicide. Legal immigrants made up 10.1 percent of the Texas population but accounted for only 4.5 percent of people convicted of homicide."
All that being said, let's back up a little bit. The gullible citizenry spreading retweets of anecdotal stories surely aren't consciously complicit in the entire astroturfed strategy of making something out of nothing, so it would behoove us to figure out who is complicit in hopes that the least responsible among us might be encouraged to do a little bit better and stop holding the bag.
tl;dr, the watershed moment that started this propaganda dump on the part of Fox News was an incident in Times Square where. Jesse Watters explained it like this live on TV:
“A gang of migrants broke into the country, pummeled two NYPD officers, and while walking out of jail without bail, flipped the double bird to the country that let them in. The two birds heard around the world. The symbol of the Biden presidency right there.”
The facts are that nobody has specifically confirmed the migrant status (legal, illegal, or not even migrants at all), the police absolutely escalated and started the conflict with these men who otherwise had not committed crimes, and the one guy who was released and exonerated with the double birds, that Fox News used as a clip over 66 times? He was exonerated because he had nothing to do with it. He wasn't even there. You can read more about this here - https://www.mediamatters.org/fox-news/manufacturing-fear-how-fox-news-leveraged-images-innocent-22-year-old-fearmonger-about
Well I'm here to help answer. First, the timeline:
• Out of nowhere, Fox starts pumping up 'migrant crime' stories focused on a "wave" of crime and mentions (more on the out of nowhere bit later), with 28 mentions Nov 26-Dec 26, 45 mentions Dec 27-Jan 27, then 317 mentions Jan 28-Feb 28 - data here
• There was a correlated spike in the number of Americans viewing it as their main issue facing this country today, with an 8% increase from Jan to Feb - https://news.gallup.com/poll/611135/immigration-surges-top-important-problem-list.aspx#:~:text=The government ranked first each,change in the past month.
The thing is though, this had no actual correlation or bearing on anything in reality, as there is no migrant crime wave and there is no crime wave. Jan-March '23 compared to the same timeframe in '24 shows violent crime down 15.2%, murder down 26.4%, rape down 25.7%, robbery down 17.8%, aggravated assault down 12.5%, and property crime down 15.1% - https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2024-quarterly-crime-report-and-use-of-force-data-update
That's a more micro scale, but how about a more macro one?
Okay, so crime is down long term and short term, but nonetheless the conversation around crime committed by migrants has exploded. Is there anything at all there?
In short, no.
From the Department of Justice:
https://crimeandjusticeresearchalliance.org/rsrch/sanctuary-cities-unauthorized-immigration-and-crime/
Some more tidbits:
Texas is important to note, because most states law enforcement don't actually track migrant status in regards to crime data (making for a non-comprehensive picture), Texas does, and in regards to Texas (also being the biggest border state), CATO's peer reviewed studies found that "The illegal immigrant criminal conviction rate was 45 percent below that of native-born Americans in Texas. The legal immigrant criminal conviction rate was 62 percent below that of native-born Americans." in 2020 as well as finding in 2022 that "the homicide conviction rate was 3.1 per 100,000 for illegal immigrants, 1.8 per 100,000 for legal immigrants, and 4.9 per 100,000 for native-born Americans ... Illegal immigrants made up about 7.1 percent of the Texas population in 2022 but accounted for only 5 percent of all people convicted of homicide. Legal immigrants made up 10.1 percent of the Texas population but accounted for only 4.5 percent of people convicted of homicide."
All that being said, let's back up a little bit. The gullible citizenry spreading retweets of anecdotal stories surely aren't consciously complicit in the entire astroturfed strategy of making something out of nothing, so it would behoove us to figure out who is complicit in hopes that the least responsible among us might be encouraged to do a little bit better and stop holding the bag.
tl;dr, the watershed moment that started this propaganda dump on the part of Fox News was an incident in Times Square where. Jesse Watters explained it like this live on TV:
“A gang of migrants broke into the country, pummeled two NYPD officers, and while walking out of jail without bail, flipped the double bird to the country that let them in. The two birds heard around the world. The symbol of the Biden presidency right there.”
The facts are that nobody has specifically confirmed the migrant status (legal, illegal, or not even migrants at all), the police absolutely escalated and started the conflict with these men who otherwise had not committed crimes, and the one guy who was released and exonerated with the double birds, that Fox News used as a clip over 66 times? He was exonerated because he had nothing to do with it. He wasn't even there. You can read more about this here - https://www.mediamatters.org/fox-news/manufacturing-fear-how-fox-news-leveraged-images-innocent-22-year-old-fearmonger-about
BigRedBuster
Active member
I’m so sick of the BS and everyone that is in the cult so they don’t see it.Remember how some posters out of the blue started being more particularly interested in migrant crime not that long ago? Any guess as to whether that was based off of anything substantial or just some cooked up fabricated fear mongering that the most gullible among us so easily get duped by?
Well I'm here to help answer. First, the timeline:
• Out of nowhere, Fox starts pumping up 'migrant crime' stories focused on a "wave" of crime and mentions (more on the out of nowhere bit later), with 28 mentions Nov 26-Dec 26, 45 mentions Dec 27-Jan 27, then 317 mentions Jan 28-Feb 28 - data here
• There was a correlated spike in the number of Americans viewing it as their main issue facing this country today, with an 8% increase from Jan to Feb - https://news.gallup.com/poll/611135/immigration-surges-top-important-problem-list.aspx#:~:text=The government ranked first each,change in the past month.
The thing is though, this had no actual correlation or bearing on anything in reality, as there is no migrant crime wave and there is no crime wave. Jan-March '23 compared to the same timeframe in '24 shows violent crime down 15.2%, murder down 26.4%, rape down 25.7%, robbery down 17.8%, aggravated assault down 12.5%, and property crime down 15.1% - https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2024-quarterly-crime-report-and-use-of-force-data-update
That's a more micro scale, but how about a more macro one?
Okay, so crime is down long term and short term, but nonetheless the conversation around crime committed by migrants has exploded. Is there anything at all there?
In short, no.
From the Department of Justice:
https://crimeandjusticeresearchalliance.org/rsrch/sanctuary-cities-unauthorized-immigration-and-crime/
Some more tidbits:
Texas is important to note, because most states law enforcement don't actually track migrant status in regards to crime data (making for a non-comprehensive picture), Texas does, and in regards to Texas (also being the biggest border state), CATO's peer reviewed studies found that "The illegal immigrant criminal conviction rate was 45 percent below that of native-born Americans in Texas. The legal immigrant criminal conviction rate was 62 percent below that of native-born Americans." in 2020 as well as finding in 2022 that "the homicide conviction rate was 3.1 per 100,000 for illegal immigrants, 1.8 per 100,000 for legal immigrants, and 4.9 per 100,000 for native-born Americans ... Illegal immigrants made up about 7.1 percent of the Texas population in 2022 but accounted for only 5 percent of all people convicted of homicide. Legal immigrants made up 10.1 percent of the Texas population but accounted for only 4.5 percent of people convicted of homicide."
All that being said, let's back up a little bit. The gullible citizenry spreading retweets of anecdotal stories surely aren't consciously complicit in the entire astroturfed strategy of making something out of nothing, so it would behoove us to figure out who is complicit in hopes that the least responsible among us might be encouraged to do a little bit better and stop holding the bag.
tl;dr, the watershed moment that started this propaganda dump on the part of Fox News was an incident in Times Square where. Jesse Watters explained it like this live on TV:
“A gang of migrants broke into the country, pummeled two NYPD officers, and while walking out of jail without bail, flipped the double bird to the country that let them in. The two birds heard around the world. The symbol of the Biden presidency right there.”
The facts are that nobody has specifically confirmed the migrant status (legal, illegal, or not even migrants at all), the police absolutely escalated and started the conflict with these men who otherwise had not committed crimes, and the one guy who was released and exonerated with the double birds, that Fox News used as a clip over 66 times? He was exonerated because he had nothing to do with it. He wasn't even there. You can read more about this here - https://www.mediamatters.org/fox-news/manufacturing-fear-how-fox-news-leveraged-images-innocent-22-year-old-fearmonger-about
JJ Husker
Donor
The bigger problem is not that they don’t see it but that they refuse to see it. They don’t want anything to do with reality. There’s a good example or two or four hereabouts.
Imma guess that crime across the board is probably down in Q1 2024 vs Q1 in 2023 but it’s not close to what the original poster says it was or what the FBI data reflects it to be. It may or may not be why a poster chose that timeframe instead of Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. And there are good reasons for the inaccuracies that will probably correct themselves over time.
https://jasher.substack.com/p/the-fbis-data-shows-a-massive-decline
Lorewarn
New member
I don't want to get too far away from the larger point of irresponsible dissemination of disingenuous anecdotes being used as fuel for misinformed myths about non-problems in our country, but here's the numbers and part of an assessment from the same guy you linked but in reference to Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022 as requested, which, surprise, continue to thankfully show decline:
There was a 13 percent decline in murder in 2023 relative to 2022, a 6 percent decline in reported violent crime, and a 4 percent decline in reported property crime based on data from just over 13,000 agencies that reported quarterly data through December. The declines were fairly uniform regardless of city or county size with the exception of rising auto thefts in bigger cities and counties. The decline in murder in 2023 is likely the largest one year decline ever recorded.
...
Caveats aside, a 13 percent decline in murder nationally — if that is what is shown in the final year-end figures — would be by far the largest one year decline in murder ever recorded (data available back to 1960). The previous largest decline in murder ever recorded was 9.1 percent in 1996, so even a 10 percent decline last year would be the largest one-year decline ever recorded both in terms of percent change and the number of fewer people murdered.
...
A double-digit percent decline in murder in 2023 (let’s assume some regression in the final numbers and call it 11 percent) would put the 2023 US murder rate at roughly 17 percent below where it was in 2020, largely in line with where it was in 2016 and 2017, and still up around 9 percent above where it was in 2019 (the super preliminary data for 2024 is quite promising — more on that in a few weeks). Murder was down or even in 163 of the 232 cities of 100,000 or more (70 percent) that provided data to the FBI for both 2022 and 2023, yet there were still outliers like Memphis, Dallas, and Washington DC that experienced sizable rises.
...
A 5.7 percent decline in reported violent crime — as preliminarily suggested by the quarterly data — would be one of the larger annual declines in reported violent crime (it fell slightly faster a few years in the 1990s).
The decline in reported violent crime in the quarterly data suggests 2023 likely had the lowest reported violent crime rate nationally since the late 1960s, even leaving room for the size of the decline to shrink from the -5.7 percent currently shown.
Now that that is out of the way, nobody else need get sidetracked by quibbling over the minute details which do not disprove the larger point, don't even disagree with it, but only aim to distract from it.
Last edited by a moderator:
It’s why I linked to him on purpose :thumbs He’s a great source of proper numbers on this subject.
he gives a more accurate assessment of data available when one is looking at the most recent numbers.
Just an fyi so we can get it out of the way…. I didn’t claim one single time in my post that crime stats overall were going up. I wanted to give the folks a place to read a more accurate picture than what you provided.
One more thing to consider..
https://jasher.substack.com/p/auto-thefts-are-plunging-where-they
We all know 2020 was a horrible year (I think we agree why too) for murder rates especially coming off a thankfully low 2019
https://jasher.substack.com/p/fbi-quarterly-data-points-to-declining
A double-digit percent decline in murder in 2023 (let’s assume some regression in the final numbers and call it 11 percent) would put the 2023 US murder rate at roughly 17 percent below where it was in 2020, largely in line with where it was in 2016 and 2017, and still up around 9 percent above where it was in 2019
knapplc
Active member
This should have been done at the beginning of his administration, not the end. But these are solid reforms.
BREAKING: President Biden is endorsing three reforms to the Supreme Court:
1. No Immunity for Crimes a Former President Committed in Office
2. Term Limits for Supreme Court Justices
3. Binding Code of Conduct for the Supreme Court
#3 only works if there's a panel of senior judges with an investigative arm capable of probing SC Justice crimes.
BREAKING: President Biden is endorsing three reforms to the Supreme Court:
1. No Immunity for Crimes a Former President Committed in Office
2. Term Limits for Supreme Court Justices
3. Binding Code of Conduct for the Supreme Court
#3 only works if there's a panel of senior judges with an investigative arm capable of probing SC Justice crimes.
BigRedBuster
Active member
Well, to be fair, the corruption on the SC has really just come out in the last few years.
TGHusker
New member
I think either 18 years is the 'sweet spot' for terms on the SC - long enough to not be taken in my momentary cultural trends and short enough to prevent a multi-generational supreme court that is beholding to one political party.
#3 is obvious and long overdue.
#1 is the result of #3 not being in place.