The Democrat Utopia

Archy1221 said:
Kinda like thinking a candidate is actually gonna change almost all her extreme positions from a very long time ago…err I  mean the last election, once elected :laughpound
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Keeping in mind that she may have taken those past positions to win those past elections as well, and is simply making the political pivots career politicians typically make. 

The odds are extremely high that Kamala Harris would govern as a boilerplate modern Democrat in the vein of Clinton, Obama, and Biden, taking safe but necessary positions on infrastructure and social safety nets and overcompensating as military hawks.  

 
I do remember all the usuals telling me crime statistics were going down and down down during the Biden/Harris regime while using sources that don’t collect data from some major metro areas.  Heck, from what is reported, even the moderators of the debate tried to fact check and tell us a different story than what the actual data reports out.    Well…….


Violent crime victimizations up around 40% from 2021 to 2022.  Up 12% from 2019 numbers.  

 
Archy1221 said:
I do remember all the usuals telling me crime statistics were going down and down down during the Biden/Harris regime while using sources that don’t collect data from some major metro areas.  Heck, from what is reported, even the moderators of the debate tried to fact check and tell us a different story than what the actual data reports out.    Well…….


Violent crime victimizations up around 40% from 2021 to 2022.  Up 12% from 2019 numbers.  
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Violent crime up 40% from 2021 and 2022 and 12% from 2019? What?

The data has rates of violent crime per 1000 people as follows:

2019 - 21.0

2020 - 16.4

2021 - 16.5

2022 - 23.5

2023 - 22.5

22.5 is 7.1% higher than 2019 (not 12%). 22.5 is negative 4.25% lower than 2022 (not 40%), and 36.36% higher than 2021 (not 40%).

 
Lorewarn said:
Violent crime up 40% from 2021 and 2022 and 12% from 2019? What?

The data has rates of violent crime per 1000 people as follows:

2019 - 21.0

2020 - 16.4

2021 - 16.5

2022 - 23.5

2023 - 22.5

22.5 is 7.1% higher than 2019 (not 12%). 22.5 is negative 4.25% lower than 2022 (not 40%), and 36.36% higher than 2021 (not 40%).
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Did you not read my post or something?  
 

I didn’t say up from 2021 AND 2022!

Using 2022 numbers because as I read it, Dec 2023 was not included.  So if you want to re-run and fact check my numbers using the ones I actually used, go ahead.   If you want to let me know that all comparison years were equal and leaving off December 2023 doesn’t matter so use 2023 numbers that’s fine too.   Just make that argument rather than what ya tried to do.  
 

from 2021 to 2022.   Up 12% from 2019 numbers

 
Archy1221 said:
Did you not read my post or something?  
 

I didn’t say up from 2021 AND 2022!

Using 2022 numbers because as I read it, Dec 2023 was not included.  So if you want to re-run and fact check my numbers using the ones I actually used, go ahead.   If you want to let me know that all comparison years were equal and leaving off December 2023 doesn’t matter so use 2023 numbers that’s fine too.   Just make that argument rather than what ya tried to do.  
 

from 2021 to 2022.   Up 12% from 2019 numbers
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I'm still not clear what you're willing to do to keep Donald Trump from being elected. 

 
Guy Chamberlin said:
I'm still not clear what you're willing to do to keep Donald Trump from being elected. 
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I’m not trying to keep him from becoming President, but I’m also not voting for him either.   
 

On the flip side, I’m not trying to keep Kamala from becoming President either, and I’m not voting for her either.   
 

What am I doing in general this cycle you might ask?    Having lively Political discussions on an anonymous political board with my anonymous good friend from the Bay Area. 

 
Archy1221 said:
Did you not read my post or something?  
 

I didn’t say up from 2021 AND 2022!

Using 2022 numbers because as I read it, Dec 2023 was not included.  So if you want to re-run and fact check my numbers using the ones I actually used, go ahead.   If you want to let me know that all comparison years were equal and leaving off December 2023 doesn’t matter so use 2023 numbers that’s fine too.   Just make that argument rather than what ya tried to do.  
 

from 2021 to 2022.   Up 12% from 2019 numbers
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Have you questioned why they only went back to 2019? I assume not.

It was 23.2 in 2018.

And overall the differences now are negligible. There was a dip during the pandemic, then things went back slightly above normal and came down last year. These are rates, so leaving December off may not have much of an impact.

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From 2015 to 2018, statistically significant changes occurred in the total number and rate of violent victimizations and in specific types of violent-crime victimizations. Across that period, the total number of violent victimizations increased 28%, from 5,006,620 to 6,385,520 victimizations. The rate of total violent victimization increased from 18.6 to 23.2 victimizations per 1,000 persons. Excluding simple assault, the rate of violent victimization also increased, from 6.8 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older in 2015 to 8.6 per 1,000 in 2018.
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Criminal Victimization, 2018: Full report (ojp.gov)

 
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