You know what, since way too many morons have done it I'll give my own outlandish/moronic(possibly) cfb conference realignment prediction.
The SEC gets Texas aTm, Clemson, North Carolina, and the coup de gras Texas. Your own network is fine over there, and it wasn't Texas's idea to televise conference games on their own network in the first place.
The B1G TEN spurns their (stupid) supposed Syracuse and Maryland wishers and picks up KU, MIZZOU, OU, and their coupe de gras (because they cant schedule half their games after they goto 9 conference match ups) Notre Dame, who they were after all along.
The Pac gets whatever remaining big 12 teams they'll settle with and realizes their part of the country doesn't care about NCAA football anyways, and you cant make deals with Texas. If they were really forward thinking when Texas and the other 4 reneged they'd have sent TCU an invite.
But it'd take years for that to happen. There is no one death blow. Plus I am probably WAY wrong, but everyone else is (and has been) that is making those predictions too.
Edit: and if that scenario would ever happen it'd be a matter of years before the 4 biggest conferences broke off from the NCAA, created basically an NFL light, consolidated networks, and went to playoffs. That's how the playoff fappers get their wish.
Frankly I hope everything stays at 12, and the big 12 is relegated to big east status in football. That's just me.
Redblooded--the trick for making predictions this go around in realignment is to think less like a conference admin, and more like a cable network admin. When the blogger 'Frank the Tank' looked at the numbers in 2010, he couldn't believe how Nebraska blew away the competition when it came to ratings and viewership. We may be small, but we are mighty and united, and it shows in the TV ratings.
I agree that either KU or Mizzou will get a golden ticket to the Big 10 if they go to 14. But not both--too many TV sets that can be picked up out east for the Big 10 to ignore.
And of course, as you illustrated, Notre Dame would steal a ticket--likely at the expense of either KU/MU, IMO, as the BTN needs to expand their local footprint.