2018 mid-term

Moiraine said:
In 2020 the Republicans will be defending 20-22 seats and the Democrats will be defending 11-13 seats. (I think there were 2 special elections for seats that will need to be won again).

Most of these are red states but there is Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico and Maine. On the other hand the Democrats will be defending Alabama and Virginia. I doubt the Democrats will be a shoe in to win the Senate in 2020.

One bit of good news for Democrats is this election was during a good economy and the recession is projected to hit June 2020.
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So Democrats are hoping for a recession to win in 2020? Wow.

 
Personally I'm quite surprised that the blue wave did actually materialize this midterm. I understand the disenchantment with Trump and repubs but I really thought it would take a much worse economy to see this kind of change. The fact things went so blue, in this economy, signals even more upheaval in two years.

Colorado has been purple for awhile but everything went solid blue Dem yesterday, the house, Senate and governor as well most every position on the ballot. That indicates a high level of dissatisfaction considering people really didn't have any serious economic concerns to rally around. IMO it was a straight up indictment (no pun intended) of Trump and repubs. It will be interesting to see how they wield this power. Will they all of a sudden actually lead and govern? Or will it be more of the same BS with a different partisan agenda?

 
Big Red 40 said:
So is Dems gaining control of the house a big deal or not ? How so ?

Is the GOP increasing their majority in the senate a big deal ? Why ? 

I’m Getting mixed answers all over on those questions what do you guys think ? 
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Both sides can claim some victories. Historically the Presidents party loses big in both the House and Senate so it was unique that the GOP added 3 or 4 Senate seats.  Here is some data to contrast key difference between 44 and 45.

-Obama lost 63 house seats and 6 senate seats in his first mid-term

-Trump lost 26 to 35 house seats and gained 4 Senate seats.

 
JJ Husker said:
Personally I'm quite surprised that the blue wave did actually materialize this midterm. I understand the disenchantment with Trump and repubs but I really thought it would take a much worse economy to see this kind of change. The fact things went so blue, in this economy, signals even more upheaval in two years.

Colorado has been purple for awhile but everything went solid blue Dem yesterday, the house, Senate and governor as well most every position on the ballot. That indicates a high level of dissatisfaction considering people really didn't have any serious economic concerns to rally around. IMO it was a straight up indictment (no pun intended) of Trump and repubs. It will be interesting to see how they wield this power. Will they all of a sudden actually lead and govern? Or will it be more of the same BS with a different partisan agenda?
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This was not a blue wave really...even CNN had to admit it. A wave would have been winning 50-plus house seats, winning more Senate seats, winning Governors races in key swing states like Ohio and Florida. This was a mixed bag election where both sides can claim some victories. 

 
JJ Husker said:
Personally I'm quite surprised that the blue wave did actually materialize this midterm. I understand the disenchantment with Trump and repubs but I really thought it would take a much worse economy to see this kind of change. The fact things went so blue, in this economy, signals even more upheaval in two years.

Colorado has been purple for awhile but everything went solid blue Dem yesterday, the house, Senate and governor as well most every position on the ballot. That indicates a high level of dissatisfaction considering people really didn't have any serious economic concerns to rally around. IMO it was a straight up indictment (no pun intended) of Trump and repubs. It will be interesting to see how they wield this power. Will they all of a sudden actually lead and govern? Or will it be more of the same BS with a different partisan agenda?
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I'm not surprised at all, I think the hype and talk of the 'blue wave' for months led to motivating the 'Pubs to get out and vote to cancel out the blue wave.   Numbers show it was great for voter turnout, but not surprising that it wasn't a landslide for one party.

 
Related, took my fiance out to vote, it was her first time ever voting.  She was really proud of herself after.    While we didn't get all the results we wanted, we did our part to help impact change.   Really disappointed in Iowa, I don't mind if Repubs win, but King is below the bottom of the barrel, and I was really hoping this would finally get him out of office, but Iowa sunk low and re-elected him.   

And the reason why we go to the polls on election night @Fcott Srost (I think it was you asking) instead of earlier or absentee or by mail, is to get the sweet 'I voted' sticker to plaster all over social media.  haha

 
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mrandyk said:
What would you call the Republican stance under Obama? 8 years of reaching across the aisle? Hell, they won't even try to work with anyone now.
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this, imo, is the problem with the entire political stage right now... "you did/didn't do such and such (which was bad) so now we won't/aren't going to do such and such either (which is also bad)"...

nobody gives a sh*t anymore about what is good for the people, just which side wins :bang

 
C N Red said:
Dont disagree, but you are gonna start seeing a lot more people with medicaid that are now able bodied, can work, and dont have kids. Thats who this expansion is about. Not about people who actually need it, its actually probably gonna hurt a lot of those who actually need it. To fund it for more its most likely they will have to take away some coverage from those who actualky need it. I would be VERY surprised if this gets enacted that the state unemployment rate doesnt increase. Also the reason the uninsured rate went down is b/c the gov't subsidizes people for insurance now. So, the less you make(work)the more they will pay for your insurance. Its taking a lot of money away from other things that need it to pay people for not willing to work enough in many instances. Ive had people tell me they only work so many hours a week so they get their full alottment of obamacare subsidies, even though there are hours available to work.
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There is an entire thread about Healthcare Reform.

If you really wanted cheaper and better healthcare (like I really want) you would be supporting something that you probably would never support.  But, it's proven all over the world to be better and cheaper.

I haven't been a supporter of the ACA and I'm definitely not a supporter of what came before the ACA.  It's very disappointing that people actually think the best path is to go back to anything we have had.  Millions of people didn't have healthcare, people taking bankruptcy simply because they got sick or in an accident.  And....these are able bodied people WITH JOBS.  Oh...and our life expectancy is worse than other countries.

 
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Big Red 40 said:
So is Dems gaining control of the house a big deal or not ? How so ?

Is the GOP increasing their majority in the senate a big deal ? Why ? 

I’m Getting mixed answers all over on those questions what do you guys think ? 
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Clifford Franklin said:
House - yes. They will be able to provide oversight on Trump because they will assume control of all House congressional committees. The majority has a majority on committees as well, so they can subpoena and investigate things they are concerned about re: Trump, his cabinet, Congress itself or anything else in the public interest. They may not be able to pass a lot of dynamite legislation out of the House because their majority may not be as large as it would be without gerrymandering, meaning they run into the same problem the GOP had in the Senate.

Senate - Yes, but less so, IMO, since they already had the majority. They can pass more conservative, Trumpy stuff if they want but it won't get through the House if there is no bipartisan support. Honestly the rural red areas leaning more strongly into Trump and the GOP itself becoming more Trumpy are the biggest stories of the night here. A lot of the new GOP senators won by explicitly hugging Trump as much as they could. Most of the Dem moderates lost. Also, in the House, the House Freedom Caucus is going to get bigger. Things are going to get more partisan. Our rural/urban divide is getting larger.
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+1. But to expand a little...

Winning the House is HUGE, the single biggest news of the night: 

  • Republicans and Trump now can't pass a single bill without House Democrats allowing it. Party leaders will control what gets to the floor in the first place. No more Obamacare repeal, tax cuts for the rich, "entitlement" (SS, Medicare, Medicaid) cuts, etc.
  • Like Clifford Franklin pointed out, Democrats now control all House committees. Devin Nunes, Trey Gowdy, et al will no longer be able to run interference for Trump. Adam Schiff now runs Intelligence (Russia). Elijah Cummings now runs Oversight and Government Reform (Trump, family, and Cabinet grifting). They have the subpoena power now.
  • There were a lot of Trump districts that flipped (14), 6 of which were +5 Trump.


    NY22 (upstate) was +16 Trump.
  • OK05 (OKC area) was +13 Trump.
  • NY11 (Staten Island & SW Brooklyn) was +10 Trump.



Senate:

  • Short term, I don't think it is as huge deal for the GOP. Even with a slim minority, they were still able to get their Judges through. If you can plow Kavanaugh through with only 51, 54-55 doesn't make a huge difference. That will continue. I just pray RBG and/or Breyer don't die.
  • Long term, it is a big deal. It makes it a lot harder for Democrats to flip the Senate in 2020. 


    "As of now, 20 Republican-held seats are on the ballot in 2020 — including in states like Colorado, Arizona, Maine, Iowa, North Carolina, and Georgia, where Democrats should at least have a plausible chance of winning the seat away from Republicans. However, they will also have to defend 11 seats, including in deep-red Alabama, where Sen. Doug Jones is up for his first reelection after his shocking 2017 win."



State Mansions:

  • Florida was a big win for Trump, no doubt about it. His race-baiting and fear-mongering tactics seemed to have push DeSantis over the finish line, which is disheartening for his future campaigns. 
  • Locally, Trump & Brownback disciple Kobach got worked over in deep-red Kansas. 
  • Democrats flipped 6-7 governorships, including big presidential election states that Trump won (Michigan & Wisconsin). 
 
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sho said:
I'm not surprised at all, I think the hype and talk of the 'blue wave' for months led to motivating the 'Pubs to get out and vote to cancel out the blue wave.   Numbers show it was great for voter turnout, but not surprising that it wasn't a landslide for one party.
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I think you misread what I said.....

 
JJ Husker said:
I think you misread what I said.....
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I did, clearly I need to finish my coffee before posting.

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