I think this spread is way more accurate than those betting percentages suggest.
Mich St is both better than their record and their stats suggest. In a small sample size, those beatings by Washington and Michigan are carrying a lot of weight. Washington in particular was 713 yards of offense!
The two team's profiles are similar. Both defenses are better vs the run than the pass, both offenses struggle, and both teams turn the ball over way, way too much. While it's cliche to suggest whomever controls the turnover battle wins, in this game it may be the entire ball game. It's hard to have confidence that Nebraska can ring them up many times through the air, and if you don't do that their defense is actually fairly stout.
Home underdogs against a team that not only turns the ball over a lot but has a tendency to do it in its own territory......I can't say I'm betting against that 91% of the time. This line has trap written all over it.