** 2023 Previews: Bill Connelly's Big Ten West Preview **

[lo country]

Mark Helfrich went to the natty in year 2. Gene Chizik won the natty in year 2. Will Muschamp went 11-2 in year 2 at Florida. Scott Frost went 13-0 in year 2. Dan Mullen went 11-2 in year 2 at Florida. Kiffen went 10-2 and finished #6 in year 2 at USC and was ranked preseason #1 the next year only to end 7-6. Mel Tucker went 11-2 in year 2 and then went 5-7 the next year.

Conversely, Dabo didn't elevate to an elite level until year 8. Harbaugh didn't get over the hump until year 4 at Stanford and year 7 at Michigan. Mark Dantonio didn't get MSU to double digit wins until year 4. Chris Petersen didn't get Washington rolling until year 3.  

So, no, you don't know by year 2.

Dabo won his division in year 2.  HIs first full year.  2011 (his 3rd full year) he never looked back with 10 wins that year.  Clemson is my 2nd team I follow.  Fans knew he had it.  As far as Dantonio, his first 2 years he had winning seasons.  Something we haven't seen in 6 years.  And that was taking over a John Smith squad that had 3 losing seasons in a row.

Stanford was a dumpster fire after Walsh in 1992.  Harbaugh had them winning in year 3 and increased one win from 2007-2008.  He showed improvement.  I think folks knew he would do something.  A lot new that Frost was a Fraud after year 2.  

I said in the success or failure thread that winning is success, but there can be improvement without the winning. After seeing the worst P5 football from NU the past 5 years, I feel confident we will know what Rhule and Co are capable of at the end of year 1.  I'm not expecting a phenomenal turnaround like those you mentioned. I'd add Stoops in year 2 with the NC, but the others I'd take.  I'd take Dabo's rise in a heart beat.  (or Pelini's)  Or the others you mentioned.  Again, I think that we will know what we have or not after year 2.  More than likely in year 1.  Frost was that bad of a coach IMHO.  We learned what bad play was and what good play looks like.  At least Frost showed us that.  

 

[Lorewarn]

Dabo won his division in year 2.  HIs first full year.  2011 (his 3rd full year) he never looked back with 10 wins that year.  Clemson is my 2nd team I follow.  Fans knew he had it.  As far as Dantonio, his first 2 years he had winning seasons.  

Dabo rebounded in 2011 with a 10 win season, but also lost the Orange Bowl 70-33 that year. The jury was still very much out on him, and it took a while for the term 'Clemsoning' to fall out of fashion.

Anyways, my post had nothing to do with Frost. My only point is refuting the notion that year 2 is proof of anything. Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't. Plenty of fraud coaches have had massive success in year 2, plenty haven't. Plenty of great coaches have also had success in year 2, plenty haven't. If Rhule has a great year 2, maybe that's proof he's great, maybe it isn't. You won't be able to know until later on in the future.

 

[lo country]

Dabo rebounded in 2011 with a 10 win season, but also lost the Orange Bowl 70-33 that year. The jury was still very much out on him, and it took a while for the term 'Clemsoning' to fall out of fashion.

Anyways, my post had nothing to do with Frost. My only point is refuting the notion that year 2 is proof of anything. Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't. Plenty of fraud coaches have had massive success in year 2, plenty haven't. Plenty of great coaches have also had success in year 2, plenty haven't. If Rhule has a great year 2, maybe that's proof he's great, maybe it isn't. You won't be able to know until later on in the future.

Not disagreeing with you, but I think that after 2 years, you have a good to better than average idea of the coaches trajectory and/or ceiling.  Dabo was the WR coach and a complete unknown.  Even to the admns when he was announced.  He was going to get more than 2 years.  He also did a big coach move and fired Steele immediately after that loss.  Something that doomed more than one HC at NU was the inability to let someone go.  Rhule for example has been a head coach, coached at 2 different spots, and shown the ability to turn programs around (Baylor was on life support)  I think with his track record, we will have a good idea of what we have with him.  TBH, I think we see improvement from the jump.  Even if it doesn't immediately translate to wins.