2024 Election Prediction Thread

Dr. Strangelove

Dr. Strangelove

New member
With the 2024 Presidential election right on the doorstep, I thought it would be interesting to see what the predictions are from board members.

The state of the race by election experts and modeling practitioners essentially have the race as a tossup, a true coin flip where each candidate has a path to victory. Harris has showed strength in quality polls, while Trump has done well in early voting, at least where party ID is tracked.

My prediction is... bullish for Trump. It's not going to be a surprise that I've long predicted a Trump victory. I'm going to play it safe and assume Trump wins all the swing states and wins the electoral college 312-226, which I think is the most likely outcome for whoever the winning candidate is. I think Harris wins the popular vote by ~1.8%.

What is your prediction? What say you? 

 
Dr. Strangelove said:
With the 2024 Presidential election right on the doorstep, I thought it would be interesting to see what the predictions are from board members.

The state of the race by election experts and modeling practitioners essentially have the race as a tossup, a true coin flip where each candidate has a path to victory. Harris has showed strength in quality polls, while Trump has done well in early voting, at least where party ID is tracked.

My prediction is... bullish for Trump. It's not going to be a surprise that I've long predicted a Trump victory. I'm going to play it safe and assume Trump wins all the swing states and wins the electoral college 312-226, which I think is the most likely outcome for whoever the winning candidate is. I think Harris wins the popular vote by ~1.8%.

What is your prediction? What say you? 
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Unless the polls are terribly off, Trump has something like a 2% chance of winning all of the swing states, as does Harris.

 
i am betting that America is not dumb enough to elect trump again.  but then i thought Nebraska wasn't fragile enough to fall apart against UCLA so who knows.

 
commando said:
i was at a wedding so i missed that.  when the wedding was over we checked into the game from the reception and it was something like 27-7 and we didn't check in again
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We ALMOST left at 27-7 but we stayed.  So instead of getting home around 530, we did not get home until almost 8!

 
I don't know if this is just wishful thinking or what...but, I have the gut feeling that there is a big wave of support for Kamala throughout the US and she wins fairly decisively.  

The worst case scenario is if Trump wins.  The second worst case scenario is if Kamala barely wins.  That would give Trump and his MAGAts the thought that they can cry that the election was stolen...which is crap.

We need a decisive win.

 
Moiraine said:
Unless the polls are terribly off, Trump has something like a 2% chance of winning all of the swing states, as does Harris.
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This well could be true, but I read, perhaps from the Cook Political report, that the most likely electoral outcome for either Trump or Harris is sweeping the swing states. This was something like 50% of the outcomes. Perhaps the difference is pure statistical - winning 7 consecutive coin flips has a ~2% chance to happening, while modeling assumes that whatever enthusiasm missed in polling is uniform among all the swing states.

Archy1221 said:
Kamala wins by a pretty healthy margin.  She gets all the blue wall states and probably NC.   Trump gets Georgia.  AZ and Nevada most likely go for Kamala. 
 

Iowa goes for Trump.  
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I think you're onto something, in that if neither candidate sweeps all the swing states, they act similarly by geographic area.

AZ/NV are probably won by the same candidate, as is WI/MI/PA, and probably GA/NC.

I personally think that Harris' winning combo, if she doesn't sweep, is the Blue Wall. I have a hard time setting her winning the sun belt states, but that's just me. 

 
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BigRedBuster said:
I don't know if this is just wishful thinking or what...but, I have the gut feeling that there is a big wave of support for Kamala throughout the US and she wins fairly decisively.  

The worst case scenario is if Trump wins.  The second worst case scenario is if Kamala barely wins.  That would give Trump and his MAGAts the thought that they can cry that the election was stolen...which is crap.

We need a decisive win.
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I agree.  Trump, aka The Felon, has been on a real 'downer' streak of late - more depressed than his normal sour mood.  It seems to me he knows there really is a blue wave coming this time and it is going to role him over.  We also see all of deranged talking of shooting his enemies, Cheney, the 'fake news', etc and also claiming fraud 1-2 weeks before the election.     

I want this to be a 'statement' election.  A definitive put down of all things maga.   It would be interesting if Harris did take Iowa.  If exit polls show Iowa falling towards Harris, it will be a long night for Trump.  I do think she gets the rust belt blue wall states and pull off either NC or Georgia plus Az or Nv.  

 
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Dr. Strangelove said:
I think you're onto something, in that if neither candidate sweeps all the swing states, they act similarly by geographic area.

AZ/NV are probably won by the same candidate, as is WI/MI/PA, and probably GA/NC.

I personally think that Harris' winning combo, if she doesn't sweep, is the Blue Wall. I have a hard time setting her winning the sun belt states, but that's just me.
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I think the outcome I predicted is entirely Trumps fault too.   He had a chance to close the last 2 weeks with a “this is what I will do message” and let his surrogate last do the negative messaging but he just couldn’t help himself.   Which has been his campaigning downfall for years. 

 
Archy1221 said:
I think the outcome I predicted is entirely Trumps fault too.   He had a chance to close the last 2 weeks with a “this is what I will do message” and let his surrogate last do the negative messaging but he just couldn’t help himself.   Which has been his campaigning downfall for years. 
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Archy, regarding the bold - do you think there is really something cognitively wrong with Trump this time around?  Set aside policy and party & his boastful blather -  I think this time around 'he can't help himself' has truly become a real cognitive thing with him.  The trump of 2024 is not nearly the trump of 2020 and especially 2016.  Even if I agreed with all of his policies (hint I don't) and even if he was the typical cocky politician (he isn't), and even if he didn't have all of his legal issues (he does) it appears to me he is in a major cognitive decline and the GOP would have been better off wt a Desantis or Haley.   This cognitive decline, just like Biden's - is enough to steer me away from him even if all other things about him was 'normal' (and they aren't). 

 
TGHusker said:
Archy, regarding the bold - do you think there is really something cognitively wrong with Trump this time around? 
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I don’t really think so other than his mind I’m sure getting slower as age has progressed.   
 

I had a mom, 3 aunts and a grandma who all passed from Alzheimer’s or LBD and from very afar and only clips of news events obviously, Trump doesn’t exhibit the characteristics I have seen close up of people with that condition.  

TGHusker said:
the GOP would have been better off wt a Desantis or Haley. 
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Absolutely agree 

 
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