** 2024 Opponent Preview : UCLA (Game 9) **
- Thread starter Saunders
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deedsker
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With Chip Kelly leaving, I didn't realize DeShaun Foster was their head coach. I didn't even know he was a coach. Dude was a beast back in the day. This is one where we need to grab a W once the back end of the schedule kicks off. This one sets the tone after tOSU if we are still just average or if we can get back to being a contender in the conference.
One of the toughest on the schedule to get a feel for. A lot to like, especially on offense, but with a new head coach you tend to lose a few that you otherwise wouldn't.
It's not a typical first time head coaching hire, either. Not only was Foster never a coordinator, something that is generally the case before becoming a head coach, he's only ever been a RB coach and only at UCLA with a one year stint at Texas Tech. Not a head coach or coordinator at a lower division level, no experience coaching other positions.
It was a difficult hire due to how late in the cycle it was, and while they interviewed quite a few people, there's certainly a well deserved sentiment that they settled on the in house guy. He's also ridiculously cheap for a P4 head coach at only $3 million this year (his former boss, Chip Kelly, will make $2 million as OC at OSU). He could be a tremendous head coach and we just don't know it, but there's definitely ample cause to have some doubt.
It's not a typical first time head coaching hire, either. Not only was Foster never a coordinator, something that is generally the case before becoming a head coach, he's only ever been a RB coach and only at UCLA with a one year stint at Texas Tech. Not a head coach or coordinator at a lower division level, no experience coaching other positions.
It was a difficult hire due to how late in the cycle it was, and while they interviewed quite a few people, there's certainly a well deserved sentiment that they settled on the in house guy. He's also ridiculously cheap for a P4 head coach at only $3 million this year (his former boss, Chip Kelly, will make $2 million as OC at OSU). He could be a tremendous head coach and we just don't know it, but there's definitely ample cause to have some doubt.
deedsker
New member
Which was also funny that, after Chip left, I just chalked it up as a W. Then FPI and what not comes out and there they sit at a spot or two above us. It will be interesting to see what changes in the overall style and team coordination from Kelly to Foster. I am guessing this may be more of a W in my general feel as you dig through the specifics again with personnel and coaching changes. I guess I am more confused on why they are still listed so high in preseason models.
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Caliborn72
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They return basically everyone on offense which I think is why the models like them. Their whole OLine I believe, leading WRs, RBs, QB. They lose their 2 monster edge rushers but return everyone else in the front 7 that was very good last year and their DC is quickly becoming a hot commodity.
But they have one of the most brutal schedules I’ve ever seen. A situation where a really excellent year 1 for the new coach might be 5 wins.
Vegas has UCLA at 5.5
FPI has UCLA in the 5.5-6.5 range.
It's not so much FPI overrates UCLA as it underrates Nebraska. Not only does UCLA's returning production help them in these models, but they've won 8+ games the last 3 years and previous seasons weigh heavily in these models until current season data starts to take over. Nebraska, with 7 straight losing seasons, obviously takes a big hit in those models.
Other factors do suggest Nebraska can be in for a big improvement, which is why many people think that will happen, it's just many of the preseason models don't take those factors into a lot of consideration.
FPI has UCLA in the 5.5-6.5 range.
It's not so much FPI overrates UCLA as it underrates Nebraska. Not only does UCLA's returning production help them in these models, but they've won 8+ games the last 3 years and previous seasons weigh heavily in these models until current season data starts to take over. Nebraska, with 7 straight losing seasons, obviously takes a big hit in those models.
Other factors do suggest Nebraska can be in for a big improvement, which is why many people think that will happen, it's just many of the preseason models don't take those factors into a lot of consideration.
deedsker
New member
Yeah, but that is schedule related. FPI has UCLA 40 and Nebraska 41. In the wins thread, Kelly Ford has UCLA 32 and Nebraska 42. Have the record at 5.5-6.5 for UCLA and Neb 6.5-5.5 just means Nebraska has an easier schedule, but not considered as good as UCLA.
In these preseason models, past season data plays an enormous role. Kelley Ford, like FPI, SP+, and many other models, weighs the past few seasons as a component of the preseason model. Some drop that data off faster than others as the season progresses, and that's a big point of contention.
UCLA won 8, 9, 8, 3 games whereas Nebraska won 5, 4, 3, 3 games. Obviously that component is going to heavily favor UCLA in these models.
The question is, how important is that when one coach is on Year 2 and the other is on Year 1. Rhule at least has some history of improving programs he's taken over, so that's at least something to draw inference from. Foster has no head coaching experience. He could win 3 and he could win 10, it's really hard to say.
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presidentjlh
New member
Yeah we’re gonna struggle with these guys too with how they’re playing LSU.
I think it’s fair to say that teams will have good days and more frequent bad days with the parity we are seeing these days. Plus, Michigan is giving it to USC so far. Maybe it’s LSU that is really bad.
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